Office briefing
PALESTINA / GUAYAS — Mayor
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Ecuador · PALESTINA / GUAYAS / GUAYAS · municipal · MayorEC-M-9-675
Read the complete original research briefing
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- PALESTINA / GUAYAS / GUAYAS
- Next election
- 2026-11-29
- Linked upcoming event
- next-3a4732492841c8e1f09d05a5
- Registry qualification
- Qualified in source register
2. How certain is that date?
2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023-02-05
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA34.1%
- 1-3322.7%
- PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO14.6%
- MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK14.4%
- MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO RENOVACIÓN4.2%
- ALIANZA DEL FUTURO3.3%
- PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO2.6%
- MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES1.9%
- MOVIMIENTO CANTONAL PROMESA Y ACCIÓN, MCPA1.7%
- PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR0.5%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA · LUIS SUAREZ | 207ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 3,737 | 34.1% | 1 | Recorded |
| 1-33 · FABIOLA MORAN HERRERA | 1440ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 2,493 | 22.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO · LUIS CASTRO | 32ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 1,595 | 14.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · LUCAS MENDOZA | 7ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 1,583 | 14.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO RENOVACIÓN · LUIS AGUIRRE MONTOYA | 246ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 455 | 4.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| ALIANZA DEL FUTURO · LUIS GILBERTO TAPIA VELEZ | 1350ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 367 | 3.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO · REINALDO CASTRO | 39ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 280 | 2.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES · MISAEL SUAREZ | 99ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 208 | 1.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CANTONAL PROMESA Y ACCIÓN, MCPA · LETTY CEVALLOS | 79ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 190 | 1.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR · KATHERIN GOMEZ CASTRO | 231ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 54 | 0.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2019-03-24
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- CREO - SUMA34.6%
- MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA17.0%
- CENTRO DEMOCRATICO16.9%
- 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO11.9%
- MOVIMIENTO ECUATORIANO UNIDO10.0%
- MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ4.7%
- PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO1.8%
- PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE1.8%
- MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL0.7%
- FUERZA.EC0.6%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CREO - SUMA · LUIS CASTRO GUADAMUD | 637ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 3,559 | 34.6% | 1 | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA · VICTOR SALAVARRIA AGUILERA | 13ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,747 | 17% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| CENTRO DEMOCRATICO · FABIOLA MORAN HERRERA | 145ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,739 | 16.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO · LUIS GILBERTO TAPIA VELEZ | 534ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,222 | 11.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO ECUATORIANO UNIDO · LETTY CEVALLOS SORNOZA | 219ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,032 | 10% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ · LUIS PALMA LOPEZ | 198ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 478 | 4.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO · PRIMITIVO PALMA | 3ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 189 | 1.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE · HOLGER COELLO | 158ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 180 | 1.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL · CARLOS VELEZ | 170ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 68 | 0.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| FUERZA.EC · LUIS MONCAYO | 146ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 58 | 0.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2014-02-23
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO28.8%
- MOVIMIENTO CREO19.3%
- ALIANZA PAIS Y MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO18.6%
- PARTIDO AVANZA17.6%
- PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO"13.5%
- MOVIMIENTO SUMA1.2%
- PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO0.6%
- PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO0.3%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO · PALMA LOPEZ LUIS AUGUSTO | 9013ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 2,993 | 28.8% | 1 | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CREO · HIDALGO BURGOS ROSSY ELIZABETH | 8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 2,007 | 19.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| ALIANZA PAIS Y MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO · MAGALLANES PAREDES ALBERTO EUGENIO | 9017ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 1,931 | 18.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO AVANZA · CEVALLOS SORNOZA LETTY SELINA | 6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 1,828 | 17.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO" · QUIJIJE CABEZA MARIA CECILIA | 4ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 1,398 | 13.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO SUMA · SUAREZ COELLO PEDRO VIRGILIO | 13ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 127 | 1.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO · ARREAGA DELGADO ITALO TEOBALDO | 10ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 61 | 0.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO · OBREGON KOLLER GLORIA ESTELA | 2ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 34 | 0.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI34.740–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=11.348294106914796, oldest_gap=9.4999518258021, previous_gap=17.640186915887853
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility30.89percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[14.55026455026455,0,14.440795475278234,1.8974639664294837,0,0,69.11147600802774],[0,0,0,0,0,17.00739875389408,82.9926012461059],[0,17.612486752095577,0,19.337123036901435,1.2236246266499662,0,61.82676558435302]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility38.17percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[14.55026455026455,0,14.440795475278234,1.8974639664294837,0,0,69.11147600802774],[0,0,0,0,0,17.00739875389408,82.9926012461059],[0,17.612486752095577,0,19.337123036901435,1.2236246266499662,0,61.82676558435302]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility34.53percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[14.55026455026455,0,14.440795475278234,1.8974639664294837,0,0,69.11147600802774],[0,0,0,0,0,17.00739875389408,82.9926012461059],[0,17.612486752095577,0,19.337123036901435,1.2236246266499662,0,61.82676558435302]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
No officeholder observation supplied.
Electoral register observations
Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.
| As of | Electors | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | 15,376 | Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.{
"call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"cne_canton": 675,
"cne_parish": null,
"cne_province": 9,
"election_date": "2026-11-29",
"electors_august": 15376,
"jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-9-675",
"name": "PALESTINA / GUAYAS",
"office": "Mayor",
"precinct_rows": [
1431,
1432,
1859
],
"record_type": "official_electoral_register",
"register_pdf_page": 7,
"register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"snapshot": "2026-08-11",
"source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
} |
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.
Sources
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/ · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2023.zip · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2023.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2014.sav · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2014.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE 2027 precinct and electorate distribution, cutoff 11 August 2026 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE resolution PLE-CNE-1-31-7-2026: ordinary election call for 29 November 2026 · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “PALESTINA / GUAYAS — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-9-675. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.