Office briefing
NARANJITO / GUAYAS — Mayor
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Ecuador · NARANJITO / GUAYAS / GUAYAS · municipal · MayorEC-M-9-510
Read the complete original research briefing
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- NARANJITO / GUAYAS / GUAYAS
- Next election
- 2026-11-29
- Linked upcoming event
- next-4824aa6301ca56efa88aacba
- Registry qualification
- Qualified in source register
2. How certain is that date?
2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023-02-05
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK33.6%
- PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO22.2%
- PSC-MADERA DE GUERRERO20.4%
- MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA9.9%
- PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA8.7%
- UNIDOS POR NARANJITO2.9%
- PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO0.9%
- MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES0.7%
- MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ0.4%
- PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR0.3%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · CRISTIAN SUAREZ | 7ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 8,926 | 33.6% | 1 | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO · BORIS GARCIA | 34ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 5,904 | 22.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PSC-MADERA DE GUERRERO · MARCOS ONOFRE | 1167ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 5,427 | 20.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA · ANA NAREA | 207ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 2,627 | 9.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · MANUEL PARRA | 117ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 2,320 | 8.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| UNIDOS POR NARANJITO · EDUARDO ALVARADO | 1394ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 779 | 2.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO · MARTIN AVILA QUIÑONEZ | 39ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 244 | 0.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES · EDGAR YAUCAN | 99ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 192 | 0.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ · JORGE DANIEL PALOMINO PEREZ | 157ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 115 | 0.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR · NORMA MOSQUERA CONSTANTE | 231ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 71 | 0.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2019-03-24
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- MOVIMIENTO ECUATORIANO UNIDO31.1%
- 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO30.7%
- MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA20.4%
- MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL8.8%
- ALIANZA CENTRO DEMOCRATICO Y SUMA4.3%
- PARTIDO POLÍTICO AVANZA1.5%
- CREO - MST - JUNTOS PODEMOS1.0%
- MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ0.8%
- FUERZA.EC0.7%
- PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE0.6%
- UNIDAD POPULAR0.3%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOVIMIENTO ECUATORIANO UNIDO · MAXIMO DAVID BETANCOURTH | 219ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 7,929 | 31.1% | 1 | Recorded |
| 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO · CRISTIAN BORIS SUAREZ PEÑAFIEL | 534ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 7,840 | 30.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA · MARCOS ONOFRE LOPEZ | 13ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 5,204 | 20.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL · JOSE FERNANDO PARRALES CEDEÑO | 148ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 2,246 | 8.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| ALIANZA CENTRO DEMOCRATICO Y SUMA · JUAN GUTIERREZ TITO | 651ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,091 | 4.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO POLÍTICO AVANZA · WASHINGTON OROZCO | 25ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 381 | 1.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| CREO - MST - JUNTOS PODEMOS · MANUEL SIGUENZA | 609ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 253 | 1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ · JUAN CRESPO PEREZ | 198ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 192 | 0.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| FUERZA.EC · HUMBERTO ZURITA | 146ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 171 | 0.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE · MARTIN CRESPO | 158ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 151 | 0.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| UNIDAD POPULAR · MANUEL ERNESTO REMACHE MALA | 143ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 75 | 0.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2014-02-23
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS35.4%
- 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO26.3%
- MOVIMIENTO CREO18.3%
- MOVIMIENTO SUMA14.0%
- PARTIDO AVANZA2.9%
- PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO0.8%
- PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO"0.8%
- PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO0.8%
- PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO0.6%
- PARTIDO RENOVADOR INSTITUCIONAL ACCION NACIONAL0.4%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS · ONOFRE LOPEZ MARCOS IVAN | 3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 8,027 | 35.4% | 1 | Recorded |
| 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO · SUAREZ PEÑAFIEL CRISTIAN BORIS | 9013ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 5,966 | 26.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CREO · BETANCOURTH VALAREZO MAXIMO DAVID | 8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 4,147 | 18.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO SUMA · ZAMBRANO CAMPOVERDE LUIS EDUARDO | 13ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 3,170 | 14% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO AVANZA · SILVA VERA MILTON ALFREDO | 6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 653 | 2.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO · CAISAGUANO GUACHUN ROBERT ROSALINO | 10ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 177 | 0.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO" · NAREA SANCHEZ PABLO JONAS | 4ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 173 | 0.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO · CORONEL ORTIZ JIMMY ROOVELT | 2ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 172 | 0.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO · URGILES MENDEZ EMANUEL FERNANDO | 1ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 140 | 0.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO RENOVADOR INSTITUCIONAL ACCION NACIONAL · ORTIZ ARANA MAXIMO ENRIQUE | 9ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 80 | 0.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI60.860–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=11.358767149032133, oldest_gap=9.077295749834835, previous_gap=0.34856851917126974
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility34.27percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,0,33.55008457056944,0.7216688592369855,0,0,65.72824657019356],[0,0,0,0,0,20.38146712098069,79.61853287901931],[0,2.8760184981281656,0,18.26469940541731,13.961682448799824,35.3534463774499,29.5441532702048]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility50.07percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,0,33.55008457056944,0.7216688592369855,0,0,65.72824657019356],[0,0,0,0,0,20.38146712098069,79.61853287901931],[0,2.8760184981281656,0,18.26469940541731,13.961682448799824,35.3534463774499,29.5441532702048]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility42.17percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,0,33.55008457056944,0.7216688592369855,0,0,65.72824657019356],[0,0,0,0,0,20.38146712098069,79.61853287901931],[0,2.8760184981281656,0,18.26469940541731,13.961682448799824,35.3534463774499,29.5441532702048]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
No officeholder observation supplied.
Electoral register observations
Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.
| As of | Electors | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | 34,419 | Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.{
"call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"cne_canton": 510,
"cne_parish": null,
"cne_province": 9,
"election_date": "2026-11-29",
"electors_august": 34419,
"jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-9-510",
"name": "NARANJITO / GUAYAS",
"office": "Mayor",
"precinct_rows": [
1427,
1428,
1429,
1430,
1813
],
"record_type": "official_electoral_register",
"register_pdf_page": 7,
"register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"snapshot": "2026-08-11",
"source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
} |
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.
Sources
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/ · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2023.zip · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2023.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2014.sav · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2014.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE 2027 precinct and electorate distribution, cutoff 11 August 2026 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE resolution PLE-CNE-1-31-7-2026: ordinary election call for 29 November 2026 · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “NARANJITO / GUAYAS — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-9-510. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.