Office briefing
EL TRIUNFO / GUAYAS — Mayor
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Ecuador · EL TRIUNFO / GUAYAS / GUAYAS · municipal · MayorEC-M-9-505
Read the complete original research briefing
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- EL TRIUNFO / GUAYAS / GUAYAS
- Next election
- 2026-11-29
- Linked upcoming event
- next-b330911921a9e1898223f02a
- Registry qualification
- Qualified in source register
2. How certain is that date?
2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023-02-05
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA47.7%
- MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK20.1%
- PSC-MADERA DE GUERRERO15.3%
- ALIANZA POPULAR TRIUNFENSE10.2%
- MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES3.2%
- MOVIMIENTO RENOVACIÓN TOTAL, RETO1.8%
- PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO0.9%
- MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRÁTICO0.5%
- PARTIDO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MÁS ACCIÓN, SUMA0.3%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA · MABEL TENEZACA | 207ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 15,814 | 47.7% | 1 | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · GLORIA QUINTERO | 7ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 6,670 | 20.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PSC-MADERA DE GUERRERO · YOLANDA VALLEJO | 1167ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 5,082 | 15.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| ALIANZA POPULAR TRIUNFENSE · FRANKLIN CARRERA BALLADARES | 1145ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 3,379 | 10.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES · MICHELLE CORONEL | 99ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 1,077 | 3.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO RENOVACIÓN TOTAL, RETO · PABLO BACULIMA | 226ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 586 | 1.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO · JOSE ALCIVAR | 34ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 306 | 0.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRÁTICO · ALYSON ESPINOZA | 124ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 158 | 0.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MÁS ACCIÓN, SUMA · JENNY GUIRACOCHA | 42ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 95 | 0.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2019-03-24
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA39.9%
- 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO14.7%
- MOVIMIENTO REVOLUCIONARIO TRIUNFENSE, MRT9.9%
- CREO - MST8.4%
- ALIANZA POR UN TRIUNFO MEJOR7.3%
- FUERZA.EC5.0%
- MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ5.0%
- MOVIMIENTO LIBERTAD ES PUEBLO LISTAS 9 Y MOVIMIENTO ECUATORIANO UNIDO 4 Y CENTRO DEMOCRATICO LISTAS 14.1%
- UNION ECUATORIANA1.6%
- IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA1.6%
- MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA1.3%
- PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO0.8%
- PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE0.5%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA · JOSE DAVID MARTILLO PINO | 13ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 12,358 | 39.9% | 1 | Recorded |
| 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO · ANDRES LUCIANO MACIAS CASTILLO | 534ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 4,546 | 14.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO REVOLUCIONARIO TRIUNFENSE, MRT · FRANKLIN CARRERA | 168ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 3,069 | 9.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| CREO - MST · WILLIAM HERRERA | 592ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 2,617 | 8.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| ALIANZA POR UN TRIUNFO MEJOR · PABLO BACULIMA URGILES | 653ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 2,263 | 7.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| FUERZA.EC · ANIBAL ROBERTO ZEA ZEA | 146ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,564 | 5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ · MANUEL MONCADA GUERRERO | 198ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,546 | 5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO LIBERTAD ES PUEBLO LISTAS 9 Y MOVIMIENTO ECUATORIANO UNIDO 4 Y CENTRO DEMOCRATICO LISTAS 1 · ANITA BARAHONA REVELO | 796ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,268 | 4.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| UNION ECUATORIANA · RAFAEL RODRIGUEZ CADENA | 51ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 500 | 1.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · NAPOLEON MANUEL REINO MENDOZA | 152ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 495 | 1.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA · EDGAR ULLOA | 37ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 398 | 1.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO · JOSE VICENTE ALCIVAR ROSADO | 8ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 238 | 0.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE · MARCIA CRUZ ESPINOZA | 158ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 147 | 0.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2014-02-23
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO52.2%
- MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS33.5%
- PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO5.1%
- PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO"5.0%
- MOVIMIENTO SUMA2.9%
- MOVIMIENTO CREO1.2%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO · MACIAS CASTILLO ANDRES LUCIANO | 9013ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 15,355 | 52.2% | 1 | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS · BARAHONA REVELO ANITA PATRICIA | 3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 9,851 | 33.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO · ESPINOSA BACULIMA ANGEL SEGUNDO RAFAEL | 2ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 1,507 | 5.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO" · MONCADA GUERRERO MANUEL SIMON | 4ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 1,471 | 5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO SUMA · MORA PEÑA VICTOR CESAR | 13ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 844 | 2.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CREO · OBANDO MORAN CRISTHIAN OTTO | 8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 361 | 1.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI0 (recorded zero)0–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=27.569572165103867, oldest_gap=18.72809554595257, previous_gap=25.192685994388725
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility41.14percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,0,20.110350649742212,3.247203545693008,0,0,76.64244580456477],[0,0,0,0,1.2834983391918475,39.852945918926764,58.86355574188139],[0,0,0,1.22835074347545,2.87182279084011,33.51934397223451,62.38048249344993]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility6.33percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,0,20.110350649742212,3.247203545693008,0,0,76.64244580456477],[0,0,0,0,1.2834983391918475,39.852945918926764,58.86355574188139],[0,0,0,1.22835074347545,2.87182279084011,33.51934397223451,62.38048249344993]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility23.74percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,0,20.110350649742212,3.247203545693008,0,0,76.64244580456477],[0,0,0,0,1.2834983391918475,39.852945918926764,58.86355574188139],[0,0,0,1.22835074347545,2.87182279084011,33.51934397223451,62.38048249344993]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
No officeholder observation supplied.
Electoral register observations
Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.
| As of | Electors | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | 45,316 | Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.{
"call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"cne_canton": 505,
"cne_parish": null,
"cne_province": 9,
"election_date": "2026-11-29",
"electors_august": 45316,
"jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-9-505",
"name": "EL TRIUNFO / GUAYAS",
"office": "Mayor",
"precinct_rows": [
1421,
1422,
1423,
1424,
1425,
1426
],
"record_type": "official_electoral_register",
"register_pdf_page": 7,
"register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"snapshot": "2026-08-11",
"source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
} |
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.
Sources
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/ · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2023.zip · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2023.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2014.sav · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2014.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE 2027 precinct and electorate distribution, cutoff 11 August 2026 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE resolution PLE-CNE-1-31-7-2026: ordinary election call for 29 November 2026 · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “EL TRIUNFO / GUAYAS — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-9-505. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.