Office briefing
NARANJAL / GUAYAS — Mayor
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Ecuador · NARANJAL / GUAYAS / GUAYAS · municipal · MayorEC-M-9-435
Read the complete original research briefing
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- NARANJAL / GUAYAS / GUAYAS
- Next election
- 2026-11-29
- Linked upcoming event
- next-4552b927e01f201b672c15d8
- Registry qualification
- Qualified in source register
2. How certain is that date?
2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023-02-05
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES33.4%
- REVOLUCION CIUDADANA31.6%
- ALIANZA POR NARANJAL22.2%
- PSC-MADERA DE GUERRERO9.3%
- MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK1.8%
- SOMOS AGUA1.7%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES · JUAN CARLOS RIVERA | 99ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 14,223 | 33.4% | 1 | Recorded |
| REVOLUCION CIUDADANA · LUIGI RIVERA GUTIERREZ | 1338ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 13,451 | 31.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| ALIANZA POR NARANJAL · CHRISTIAN MORETA | 1239ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 9,475 | 22.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PSC-MADERA DE GUERRERO · RAFAEL ROBLES | 1167ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 3,964 | 9.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · DENISSE CEPEDA | 7ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 765 | 1.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| SOMOS AGUA · CELIA ORTEGA | 1149ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 708 | 1.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2019-03-24
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- MOVIMIENTO NACIONAL PODEMOS24.8%
- 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO23.8%
- PARTIDO POLÍTICO AVANZA19.3%
- ALIANZA CENTRO DEMOCRATICO Y PAIS7.7%
- MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES4.6%
- PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO4.1%
- MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL3.4%
- IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA2.7%
- MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ2.6%
- ALIANZA POR EL RESCATE DE NARNAJAL2.1%
- PACHAKUTIK - DPI 18 - 1132.1%
- FUERZA.EC1.6%
- PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE0.8%
- MOVIMIENTO EMERGENTE DE TRANSPARENCIA Y ACCION (META)0.4%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOVIMIENTO NACIONAL PODEMOS · LUIGI DAVID RIVERA GUTIERREZ | 142ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 9,922 | 24.8% | 1 | Recorded |
| 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO · CARLOS ALFONSO PALADINES | 534ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 9,528 | 23.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO POLÍTICO AVANZA · RUPERTO JUVENCIO ESPINOZA | 25ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 7,724 | 19.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| ALIANZA CENTRO DEMOCRATICO Y PAIS · FRANCISCO CEDEÑO DIAZ | 640ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 3,064 | 7.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES · ARTURO PARRA BENITES | 22ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,856 | 4.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO · FRANKLIN EDUARDO PALOMINO VEGA | 8ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,659 | 4.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL · GERMANIA ROMERO | 170ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,349 | 3.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · JOEL PEÑAFIEL | 152ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,086 | 2.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ · DARWIN TOAPANTA | 198ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,034 | 2.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| ALIANZA POR EL RESCATE DE NARNAJAL · ITALO PELAEZ | 646ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 845 | 2.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PACHAKUTIK - DPI 18 - 113 · DONALD PASTOR ASTUDILLO | 562ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 831 | 2.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| FUERZA.EC · ADRIAN CORONEL MACIAS | 146ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 639 | 1.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE · ALEJANDRA MERCADO ZAMBRANO | 158ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 308 | 0.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO EMERGENTE DE TRANSPARENCIA Y ACCION (META) · LUIS ARTURO CARDENAS MONCAYO | 50ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 166 | 0.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2014-02-23
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS45.9%
- PARTIDO AVANZA33.1%
- 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO6.1%
- ALIANZA UNIDAD DE LAS IZQUIERDAS EN LA DIVERSIDAD5.7%
- PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO4.1%
- MOVIMIENTO CREO2.3%
- MOVIMIENTO SUMA1.9%
- PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO0.7%
- PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO"0.2%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS · CHICA CARDENAS MARCOS ALBERTO | 3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 16,977 | 45.9% | 1 | Recorded |
| PARTIDO AVANZA · ESPINOZA RIVAS RUPERTO JUVENCIO | 6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 12,260 | 33.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO · BARCIA FIERRO AUGUSTO ANGEL | 9013ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 2,267 | 6.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| ALIANZA UNIDAD DE LAS IZQUIERDAS EN LA DIVERSIDAD · PARRA BENITES ARTURO ROMAN | 9016ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 2,109 | 5.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO · HENRIQUEZ MARTINEZ TITO ARMANDO | 1ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 1,511 | 4.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CREO · ARAUJO CARDENAS JIMMY ANDRES | 8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 844 | 2.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO SUMA · CARRERA SALTOS CARLOS FERNANDO | 13ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 691 | 1.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO · ANDRADE ROBLES SERGIO MAGNO | 10ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 261 | 0.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO" · GALLEGOS CABEZAS GUIDO MARCELO | 4ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 84 | 0.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI86.710–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=1.8128023294040325, oldest_gap=12.747270565344287, previous_gap=0.984729199470145
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility30.56percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,0,1.7963650025830085,33.3982999107688,0,0,64.8053350866482],[0,0,0,4.638724350803529,0,0,95.36127564919646],[0,33.13155334558426,0,2.2808345043779052,1.8673656901956546,45.878823910928546,16.841422548913634]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility80.88percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,0,1.7963650025830085,33.3982999107688,0,0,64.8053350866482],[0,0,0,4.638724350803529,0,0,95.36127564919646],[0,33.13155334558426,0,2.2808345043779052,1.8673656901956546,45.878823910928546,16.841422548913634]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility55.72percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,0,1.7963650025830085,33.3982999107688,0,0,64.8053350866482],[0,0,0,4.638724350803529,0,0,95.36127564919646],[0,33.13155334558426,0,2.2808345043779052,1.8673656901956546,45.878823910928546,16.841422548913634]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
No officeholder observation supplied.
Electoral register observations
Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.
| As of | Electors | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | 59,212 | Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.{
"call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"cne_canton": 435,
"cne_parish": null,
"cne_province": 9,
"election_date": "2026-11-29",
"electors_august": 59212,
"jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-9-435",
"name": "NARANJAL / GUAYAS",
"office": "Mayor",
"precinct_rows": [
1410,
1413,
1414,
1415,
1416,
1417,
1418,
1419,
1420,
1533,
1858,
1907,
1913
],
"record_type": "official_electoral_register",
"register_pdf_page": 7,
"register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"snapshot": "2026-08-11",
"source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
} |
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.
Sources
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/ · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2023.zip · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2023.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2014.sav · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2014.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE 2027 precinct and electorate distribution, cutoff 11 August 2026 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE resolution PLE-CNE-1-31-7-2026: ordinary election call for 29 November 2026 · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “NARANJAL / GUAYAS — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-9-435. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.