Office briefing

MILAGRO / GUAYAS — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · MILAGRO / GUAYAS / GUAYAS · municipal · MayorEC-M-9-420

Read the complete original research briefing

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography: MILAGRO / GUAYAS / GUAYAS
Next election: 2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event: next-42b1e0908d301e128f21c7d2
Registry qualification: Qualified in source register

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA31.6%
UNIDOS POR MILAGRO22.7%
PSC-MILAGREÑOS RENACEN20.2%
SI SE PUEDE MILAGRO16.3%
PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA2.7%
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO2.5%
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MÁS ACCIÓN, SUMA1.4%
PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR1.2%
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO0.9%
MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ0.6%

Results for event-336ae73f32f1e6da71f0e95f
Label / candidate	Party code	Votes	Share	Seats	Status
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA · PEDRO ENRIQUE SOLINES CHACON	207ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	35,349	31.6%	1	Recorded
UNIDOS POR MILAGRO · FRANCISCO CEVALLOS MACIAS	1070ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	25,463	22.7%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PSC-MILAGREÑOS RENACEN · DANIELA ASAN	1134ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	22,601	20.2%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
SI SE PUEDE MILAGRO · JOSE FRANCISCO CEVALLOS	1320ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	18,222	16.3%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · JORGE SAFADI	117ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	3,041	2.7%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO · LUIS SILVA	39ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	2,750	2.5%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MÁS ACCIÓN, SUMA · MARTIN VILLALVA	42ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	1,549	1.4%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR · EDISON GUARANGA	231ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	1,379	1.2%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO · NINO CENTANARO	34ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	977	0.9%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ · ANA ALEJANDRA MARQUEZ MORENO	157ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	692	0.6%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

6-MADERA DE GUERRERO - MOVIMIENTO CIUDADANO MILAGREÑOS RENACEN29.8%
MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES29.3%
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA18.0%
MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL8.1%
EL MILAGRO QUE QUEREMOS3.7%
CENTRO DEMOCRATICO2.5%
MOVIMIENTO CONCERTACION1.7%
MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL1.4%
ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE - MST1.0%
FUERZA.EC0.9%
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO0.7%
MOVIMIENTO NACIONAL PODEMOS0.7%
IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA0.6%
MOVIMIENTO EMERGENTE DE TRANSPARENCIA Y ACCION (META)0.5%
UNION ECUATORIANA0.4%
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK0.3%
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO0.3%

Results for event-06626bf69baa930d0b2369d4
Label / candidate	Party code	Votes	Share	Seats	Status
6-MADERA DE GUERRERO - MOVIMIENTO CIUDADANO MILAGREÑOS RENACEN · JOSE FRANCISCO ASAN WONSANG	541ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	32,845	29.8%	1	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES · ROMULO MINCHALA	22ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	32,307	29.3%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA · DENISSE ROBLES ANDRADE	13ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	19,868	18%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL · EDISON GUARANGA	148ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	8,921	8.1%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
EL MILAGRO QUE QUEREMOS · LUCILO EDGAR ENRIQUEZ LOMBEIDA	648ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	4,062	3.7%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
CENTRO DEMOCRATICO · WALTER VICTORIANO LOOR BRIONES	145ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	2,779	2.5%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CONCERTACION · WASHINGTON PESANTEZ ENCALADA	18ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	1,902	1.7%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL · MODESTO ARIOSTO FREIRE BAJAÑA	170ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	1,579	1.4%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE - MST · ALBERTO DURANGO MANTILLA	634ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	1,069	1%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
FUERZA.EC · CARLOS VELASCO	146ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	997	0.9%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO · VIVIANA GUEVARA	8ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	769	0.7%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO NACIONAL PODEMOS · CARLOS BRAVO CANTOS	142ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	758	0.7%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · STALIN MAURICIO CABRERA MORA	152ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	684	0.6%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO EMERGENTE DE TRANSPARENCIA Y ACCION (META) · GIANNA CENTANARO QUIROZ	50ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	511	0.5%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
UNION ECUATORIANA · RENSO MARTINEZ BARBOTOA	51ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	417	0.4%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · WASHINGTON TAMAYO PEÑA	12ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	384	0.3%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO · JULIO MORA	3ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	377	0.3%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

ALIANZA PAIS Y MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO37.4%
MOVIMIENTO CREO32.0%
MOVIMIENTO CIUDADANO MILAGREÑOS RENACEN18.2%
MOVIMIENTO SUMA5.4%
6-MADERA DE GUERRERO2.7%
PARTIDO AVANZA1.9%
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO0.9%
PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO0.5%
PARTIDO RENOVADOR INSTITUCIONAL ACCION NACIONAL0.4%
PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO0.3%
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO"0.3%

Results for event-3d92bc440c4a8d22b7729e23
Label / candidate	Party code	Votes	Share	Seats	Status
ALIANZA PAIS Y MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO · ROBLES ANDRADE DENISSE PRISCILA	9017ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	39,791	37.4%	1	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO · MINCHALA MURILLO ROMULO MARCELO	8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	34,026	32%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CIUDADANO MILAGREÑOS RENACEN · ASAN WONSANG JOSE FRANCISCO	9007ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	19,386	18.2%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO SUMA · LOOR BRIONES WALTER VICTORIANO	13ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	5,737	5.4%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
6-MADERA DE GUERRERO · COELLO LEON EDUARDO IVAN	9013ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	2,876	2.7%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO AVANZA · LARA HIDALGO JOFFRE GUILLERMO	6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	2,052	1.9%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO · VIEJO SEFERINO MANUEL ANTONIO	10ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	936	0.9%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO · CASTILLO GRANDA ELBA GRACIELA	2ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	482	0.5%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO RENOVADOR INSTITUCIONAL ACCION NACIONAL · JARA SOTOMAYOR PEDRO ANGEL	9ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	398	0.4%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO · MARTILLO CORDOVA VICTORIA BRUNA	1ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	342	0.3%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO" · CHACON BERMEO LUTGARDO NEPTALI	4ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	285	0.3%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

70.080–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=8.82497344295368, oldest_gap=5.4227690455362065, previous_gap=0.48807482604396313

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,[0,0,0.34836567509457583,29.30898402416787,0,18.02429487702873,52.318355423708816],[0,1.9301859638231227,0,32.006095324096286,5.396431225367083,0,60.667287486713505]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

18.37percentage points

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,[0,0,0.34836567509457583,29.30898402416787,0,18.02429487702873,52.318355423708816],[0,1.9301859638231227,0,32.006095324096286,5.396431225367083,0,60.667287486713505]]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,[0,0,0.34836567509457583,29.30898402416787,0,18.02429487702873,52.318355423708816],[0,1.9301859638231227,0,32.006095324096286,5.396431225367083,0,60.667287486713505]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

As of

Electors

Notes

2026-08-11

155,795

Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.

{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 420,
  "cne_parish": null,
  "cne_province": 9,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electors_august": 155795,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-9-420",
  "name": "MILAGRO / GUAYAS",
  "office": "Mayor",
  "precinct_rows": [
    1357,
    1358,
    1359,
    1360,
    1361,
    1412,
    1475,
    1481,
    1542,
    1543,
    1544,
    1545,
    1546,
    1547,
    1548,
    1549,
    1550,
    1551,
    1552,
    1553,
    1554,
    1853,
    1854,
    1855,
    1856
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 7,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

Sources

Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834 · rights unknown
Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971 · rights unknown
Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133 · rights unknown
Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/ · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2023.zip · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2023.dat · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019.dat · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2019.dat · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2014.sav · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2014.dat · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE 2027 precinct and electorate distribution, cutoff 11 August 2026 · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE resolution PLE-CNE-1-31-7-2026: ordinary election call for 29 November 2026 · rights unknown

Cite this record

Center for Digital Democracy. “MILAGRO / GUAYAS — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-9-420. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.