Office briefing
YAGUACHI / GUAYAS — Mayor
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Ecuador · YAGUACHI / GUAYAS / GUAYAS · municipal · MayorEC-M-9-395
Read the complete original research briefing
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- YAGUACHI / GUAYAS / GUAYAS
- Next election
- 2026-11-29
- Linked upcoming event
- next-881e4d13e5abb4c458603dfa
- Registry qualification
- Qualified in source register
2. How certain is that date?
2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023-02-05
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA34.5%
- YAGUACHI PRIMERO34.0%
- JUNTOS POR YAGUACHI13.0%
- PSC-MADERA DE GUERRERO12.5%
- MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES4.5%
- PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO1.3%
- PARTIDO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MÁS ACCIÓN, SUMA0.3%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA · VIVIANA OLIVARES COLL | 207ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 13,108 | 34.5% | 1 | Recorded |
| YAGUACHI PRIMERO · CRISTHIAN MENENDEZ | 1288ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 12,912 | 34% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| JUNTOS POR YAGUACHI · ESTHER CASTRO | 1422ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 4,937 | 13% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PSC-MADERA DE GUERRERO · KLEBER FALCON | 1167ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 4,742 | 12.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES · ANGELA MOROCHO | 99ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 1,701 | 4.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO · PEDRO PABLO MORAN | 34ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 487 | 1.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MÁS ACCIÓN, SUMA · MARIA TEJENA | 42ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 124 | 0.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2019-03-24
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO23.8%
- MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES20.8%
- MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA19.4%
- MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL11.4%
- UNION ECUATORIANA8.2%
- ALIANZA CENTRO DEMOCRATICO Y MOVIMIENTO ECUATORIANO UNIDO4.6%
- UNIDAD POPULAR2.6%
- MOVIMIENTO NACIONAL PODEMOS2.2%
- FUERZA.EC1.5%
- PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO1.4%
- IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA1.1%
- MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL1.0%
- MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA0.9%
- MOVIMIENTO LIBERTAD ES PUEBLO, LEP0.5%
- MOVIMIENTO CONCERTACION0.3%
- PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE0.3%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO · KLEBER XAVIER FALCON ORTEGA | 534ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 7,851 | 23.8% | 1 | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES · CRISTOBAL ROMERO | 22ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 6,883 | 20.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA · ESTHER CASTRO CHICAIZA | 13ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 6,424 | 19.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL · OSCAR SUAREZ | 148ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 3,756 | 11.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| UNION ECUATORIANA · CRISTHIAN ALVARADO HERNANDEZ | 51ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 2,714 | 8.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| ALIANZA CENTRO DEMOCRATICO Y MOVIMIENTO ECUATORIANO UNIDO · CRUZ CECIBEL AVECILLA ARIAS | 607ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,515 | 4.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| UNIDAD POPULAR · JORMAN GALARZA LEON | 143ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 849 | 2.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO NACIONAL PODEMOS · EDWIN VASCONEZ CASTILLO | 142ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 742 | 2.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| FUERZA.EC · FRANK ENGER PARRA CADENA | 146ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 492 | 1.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO · FABIAN NAVARRETE SALAZAR | 8ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 447 | 1.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · PEDRO MOREIRA PEÑA | 152ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 366 | 1.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL · BYRON AMAN | 170ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 319 | 1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA · LAURA FAGGISON | 37ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 307 | 0.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO LIBERTAD ES PUEBLO, LEP · LEONARDO GARCIA | 235ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 162 | 0.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CONCERTACION · CLARA GOMEZ | 18ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 114 | 0.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE · MANUEL SANIPATIN | 158ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 111 | 0.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2014-02-23
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS34.0%
- PARTIDO AVANZA23.2%
- 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO19.2%
- MOVIMIENTO CREO17.7%
- MOVIMIENTO SUMA2.3%
- PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO1.5%
- PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO1.3%
- PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO"0.8%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS · AVECILLA ARIAS JOSE DANIEL | 3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 8,308 | 34% | 1 | Recorded |
| PARTIDO AVANZA · ROMERO CABRERA CRISTOBAL ALBERTO | 6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 5,660 | 23.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO · FALCON ORTEGA KLEVER XAVIER | 9013ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 4,703 | 19.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CREO · VERA CALDERON SILVIA LORENA | 8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 4,315 | 17.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO SUMA · MALDONADO ACOSTA FREDDY ENRIQUE | 13ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 558 | 2.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO · PINCAY ORTEGA ANGEL GREGORIO | 2ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 367 | 1.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO · SALAZAR ALVARADO PETITA LEONORA | 10ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 329 | 1.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO" · CALDERON RAMIREZ HENDRIK FEDERICO | 4ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 195 | 0.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI88.640–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=0.5156402094130641, oldest_gap=10.836914262328627, previous_gap=2.928718383153818
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility36.71percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,0,0,4.475020388834811,0,0,95.52497961116518],[0,0,0,20.824760982693938,0.9288394045746097,19.436040179111703,58.810359433619766],[0,23.163494986699405,0,17.659095559648044,2.283609576427256,34.00040924902803,22.89339062819726]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility39.08percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,0,0,4.475020388834811,0,0,95.52497961116518],[0,0,0,20.824760982693938,0.9288394045746097,19.436040179111703,58.810359433619766],[0,23.163494986699405,0,17.659095559648044,2.283609576427256,34.00040924902803,22.89339062819726]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility37.9percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,0,0,4.475020388834811,0,0,95.52497961116518],[0,0,0,20.824760982693938,0.9288394045746097,19.436040179111703,58.810359433619766],[0,23.163494986699405,0,17.659095559648044,2.283609576427256,34.00040924902803,22.89339062819726]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
No officeholder observation supplied.
Electoral register observations
Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.
| As of | Electors | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | 52,418 | Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.{
"call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"cne_canton": 395,
"cne_parish": null,
"cne_province": 9,
"election_date": "2026-11-29",
"electors_august": 52418,
"jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-9-395",
"name": "YAGUACHI / GUAYAS",
"office": "Mayor",
"precinct_rows": [
1624,
1625,
1626,
1627,
1629,
1630,
1631,
1632,
1811,
1866,
1920
],
"record_type": "official_electoral_register",
"register_pdf_page": 7,
"register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"snapshot": "2026-08-11",
"source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
} |
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.
Sources
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/ · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2023.zip · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2023.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2014.sav · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2014.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE 2027 precinct and electorate distribution, cutoff 11 August 2026 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE resolution PLE-CNE-1-31-7-2026: ordinary election call for 29 November 2026 · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “YAGUACHI / GUAYAS — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-9-395. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.