Office briefing
EL EMPALME / GUAYAS — Mayor
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Ecuador · EL EMPALME / GUAYAS / GUAYAS · municipal · MayorEC-M-9-385
Read the complete original research briefing
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- EL EMPALME / GUAYAS / GUAYAS
- Next election
- 2026-11-29
- Linked upcoming event
- next-c222881a91706c3c3a3506e4
- Registry qualification
- Qualified in source register
2. How certain is that date?
2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023-02-05
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- PSC-EMPALME RENACE51.6%
- MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA36.0%
- ALIANZA 1-21-1116.3%
- UNIDOS POR EL EMPALME1.7%
- ALIANZA DEL FUTURO1.2%
- PARTIDO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MÁS ACCIÓN, SUMA1.1%
- PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR0.9%
- PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA0.6%
- PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO0.4%
- MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK0.3%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSC-EMPALME RENACE · RODOLFO CANTOS ACOSTA | 1160ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 25,548 | 51.6% | 1 | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA · PAQUITO ROMERO PINARGOTE | 207ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 17,831 | 36% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| ALIANZA 1-21-111 · LUIS PLAZA | 1223ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 3,118 | 6.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| UNIDOS POR EL EMPALME · EDER CONFORME | 1365ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 823 | 1.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| ALIANZA DEL FUTURO · LUIS ALBERTO HUILCAPI PAZMIÑO | 1350ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 577 | 1.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MÁS ACCIÓN, SUMA · ORLANDO ALVAREZ | 42ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 568 | 1.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR · ENRY COLL MIELES | 231ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 459 | 0.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · NARCISA MEZA | 117ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 275 | 0.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO · LIZANDRO BRAVO | 34ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 177 | 0.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · ANDRES RODRIGUEZ | 7ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 153 | 0.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2019-03-24
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- ALIANZA CREO - RENACE44.9%
- MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL13.4%
- 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO12.9%
- PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO10.4%
- ALIANZA CENTRO DEMOCRATICO Y MOVIMIENTO ECUATORIANO UNIDO7.0%
- MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA5.4%
- MOVIMIENTO SALUD Y TRABAJO0.9%
- MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ0.7%
- MOVIMIENTO FUERZA PRODUCTIVA EMPALMEÑA0.7%
- FUERZA.EC0.7%
- IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA0.7%
- UNIDAD POPULAR0.7%
- MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA0.7%
- PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE0.5%
- PARTIDO POLÍTICO AVANZA0.5%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALIANZA CREO - RENACE · RODOLFO CANTOS | 588ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 20,280 | 44.9% | 1 | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL · LUIS HUILCAPI | 148ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 6,061 | 13.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO · JOFFRE VENEGAS ALAVA | 534ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 5,818 | 12.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO · LENIN VALLE VERA | 8ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 4,695 | 10.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| ALIANZA CENTRO DEMOCRATICO Y MOVIMIENTO ECUATORIANO UNIDO · CESAR ALONZO | 642ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 3,152 | 7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA · CARMEN ZAPATIER ARELLANO | 13ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 2,440 | 5.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO SALUD Y TRABAJO · GASTON DEFAZ GARCIA | 24ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 408 | 0.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ · NICOLAS ALVAREZ | 198ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 337 | 0.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO FUERZA PRODUCTIVA EMPALMEÑA · JOSE HIDALGO | 179ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 334 | 0.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| FUERZA.EC · EDU VELEZ | 146ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 314 | 0.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · YESENIA MOSQUERA CONSTANTINE | 152ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 302 | 0.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| UNIDAD POPULAR · FARID LEON GARCIA | 143ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 301 | 0.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA · VLADIMIR JIBAJA ARANDA | 37ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 301 | 0.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE · DAVID SALVADOR RUIZ GOYA | 158ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 217 | 0.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO POLÍTICO AVANZA · ROSA MARISOL FUENTES SOLIS | 25ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 214 | 0.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2014-02-23
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO47.3%
- MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS22.5%
- MOVIMIENTO CREO20.5%
- 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO3.3%
- PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO"2.6%
- PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO1.4%
- PARTIDO AVANZA1.4%
- MOVIMIENTO SUMA1.0%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO · VALLE VERA POLIVIO LENIN | 10ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 21,585 | 47.3% | 1 | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS · BRAVO LOOR BETTY MARILU | 3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 10,257 | 22.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CREO · CANTOS ACOSTA RODOLFO SEBASTIAN | 8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 9,350 | 20.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO · ALVARADO SOLORZANO HECTOR GONZALO | 9013ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 1,511 | 3.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO" · MACIAS RISCO DOLORES VICENTE | 4ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 1,208 | 2.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO · CHICA BAZURTO WILTER ZENON | 2ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 654 | 1.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO AVANZA · MOSQUERA DE LA ESE WAGNER MARIANO | 6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 626 | 1.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO SUMA · CONFORME OLMEDO EDER JHON | 13ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 460 | 1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI0 (recorded zero)0–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=15.580770861515475, oldest_gap=24.814352369060916, previous_gap=31.47607030592819
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility6.07percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,0,0.3089099315552505,0,0,0,99.69109006844475],[0,0,0,0,0.6663124806304511,5.4013370522867135,93.93235046708284],[0,1.371273356552978,0,20.481479047556462,1.0076449584894087,22.46829204179536,54.67131059560579]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility39.26percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,0,0.3089099315552505,0,0,0,99.69109006844475],[0,0,0,0,0.6663124806304511,5.4013370522867135,93.93235046708284],[0,1.371273356552978,0,20.481479047556462,1.0076449584894087,22.46829204179536,54.67131059560579]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility22.66percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,0,0.3089099315552505,0,0,0,99.69109006844475],[0,0,0,0,0.6663124806304511,5.4013370522867135,93.93235046708284],[0,1.371273356552978,0,20.481479047556462,1.0076449584894087,22.46829204179536,54.67131059560579]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
No officeholder observation supplied.
Electoral register observations
Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.
| As of | Electors | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | 71,421 | Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.{
"call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"cne_canton": 385,
"cne_parish": null,
"cne_province": 9,
"election_date": "2026-11-29",
"electors_august": 71421,
"jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-9-385",
"name": "EL EMPALME / GUAYAS",
"office": "Mayor",
"precinct_rows": [
1367,
1654,
1655,
1656,
1657,
1658,
1659,
1660,
1661,
1662,
1663,
1664,
1809,
1810
],
"record_type": "official_electoral_register",
"register_pdf_page": 7,
"register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"snapshot": "2026-08-11",
"source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
} |
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.
Sources
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/ · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2023.zip · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2023.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2014.sav · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2014.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE 2027 precinct and electorate distribution, cutoff 11 August 2026 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE resolution PLE-CNE-1-31-7-2026: ordinary election call for 29 November 2026 · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “EL EMPALME / GUAYAS — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-9-385. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.