Office briefing
SAN LORENZO / ESMERALDAS — Mayor
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Ecuador · SAN LORENZO / ESMERALDAS / ESMERALDAS · municipal · MayorEC-M-8-580
Read the complete original research briefing
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- SAN LORENZO / ESMERALDAS / ESMERALDAS
- Next election
- 2026-11-29
- Linked upcoming event
- next-020d7ab6f2846f9a49928d58
- Registry qualification
- Qualified in source register
2. How certain is that date?
2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023-02-05
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- UNION POR LA REVOLUCION CIUDADANA34.3%
- PSC-PID-PSP LISTA 6-4-325.9%
- MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES20.4%
- SOMOS SAN LORENZO, LISTA 1-3512.8%
- PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR6.2%
- PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA0.4%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNION POR LA REVOLUCION CIUDADANA · ADIS SOLIS | 1270ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 8,044 | 34.3% | 1 | Recorded |
| PSC-PID-PSP LISTA 6-4-3 · HIPOLITO RODRIGUEZ LERMA | 1006ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 6,071 | 25.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES · GLEEN ARROYO | 99ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 4,773 | 20.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| SOMOS SAN LORENZO, LISTA 1-35 · CARLOS ASTUDILLO MOSQUERA | 1386ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 3,007 | 12.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR · JACKSON CABEZAS | 231ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 1,454 | 6.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · LEIDY JOHANNA CASTRO PAZ | 117ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 83 | 0.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2019-03-24
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ41.8%
- PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO28.2%
- MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA17.9%
- UNIDAD POPULAR7.9%
- MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA2.6%
- MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES0.6%
- FUERZA.EC0.6%
- PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO0.4%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ · GLEEN ARROYO | 198ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 8,051 | 41.8% | 1 | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO · HIPOLITO RODRIGUEZ LERMA | 1ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 5,425 | 28.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA · MARIO VALENCIA | 13ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 3,443 | 17.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| UNIDAD POPULAR · FERNANDO PEREA | 143ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,528 | 7.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA · JORGE CABEZA ORTIZ | 37ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 494 | 2.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES · DOMINGO QUINTERO VALENCIA | 22ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 121 | 0.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| FUERZA.EC · CRISTINA VALENCIA | 146ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 121 | 0.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO · JOSE ARBOLEDA | 8ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 70 | 0.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2014-02-23
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS39.1%
- PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO28.7%
- PARTIDO AVANZA25.8%
- PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO4.2%
- MOVIMIENTO CREO1.1%
- MOVIMIENTO PUEBLO0.7%
- PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO0.5%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS · SAMANIEGO OCHOA GUSTAVO ELEODORO | 3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 6,197 | 39.1% | 1 | Recorded |
| PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO · RODRIGUEZ LERMA HIPOLITO | 1ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 4,552 | 28.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO AVANZA · ARROYO CARVACHE JEYSON GLEEN | 6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 4,095 | 25.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO · CASTILLO QUINTERO ECILDA EVA | 2ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 673 | 4.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CREO · QUINTERO VALENCIA DOMINGO MARCIS | 8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 169 | 1.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO PUEBLO · VALENCIA ALARCON LUIS ENRIQUE | 8001ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 104 | 0.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO · MENDEZ GUERRERO JOSE MIGUEL | 10ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 75 | 0.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI49.10–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=8.420109252304545, oldest_gap=10.368736211786949, previous_gap=13.639432815665092
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility48.63percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,0,0,20.36958006145442,0,0,79.63041993854559],[28.177426894509946,0,0,0.6284734846517426,2.5658338960162053,17.882927335999586,50.74533838882252],[0,25.811534825086667,0,1.0652379451623069,0,39.060825716987075,34.062401512763955]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility47.43percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,0,0,20.36958006145442,0,0,79.63041993854559],[28.177426894509946,0,0,0.6284734846517426,2.5658338960162053,17.882927335999586,50.74533838882252],[0,25.811534825086667,0,1.0652379451623069,0,39.060825716987075,34.062401512763955]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility48.03percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,0,0,20.36958006145442,0,0,79.63041993854559],[28.177426894509946,0,0,0.6284734846517426,2.5658338960162053,17.882927335999586,50.74533838882252],[0,25.811534825086667,0,1.0652379451623069,0,39.060825716987075,34.062401512763955]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
No officeholder observation supplied.
Electoral register observations
Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.
| As of | Electors | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | 35,122 | Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.{
"call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"cne_canton": 580,
"cne_parish": null,
"cne_province": 8,
"election_date": "2026-11-29",
"electors_august": 35122,
"jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-8-580",
"name": "SAN LORENZO / ESMERALDAS",
"office": "Mayor",
"precinct_rows": [
1131,
1160,
1161,
1176,
1184,
1221,
1222,
1223,
1224,
1225,
1256,
1263,
1264,
1265,
1266,
1267,
1268,
1269,
1270,
1271,
1272,
1289,
1293,
1295,
1296,
1320,
1321,
1332,
1333,
1334,
1341
],
"record_type": "official_electoral_register",
"register_pdf_page": 7,
"register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"snapshot": "2026-08-11",
"source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
} |
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.
Sources
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/ · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2023.zip · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2023.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2014.sav · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2014.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE 2027 precinct and electorate distribution, cutoff 11 August 2026 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE resolution PLE-CNE-1-31-7-2026: ordinary election call for 29 November 2026 · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “SAN LORENZO / ESMERALDAS — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-8-580. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.