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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

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Office briefing

QUININDÉ / ESMERALDAS — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · QUININDÉ / ESMERALDAS / ESMERALDAS · municipal · MayorEC-M-8-575

Read the complete original research briefing

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
QUININDÉ / ESMERALDAS / ESMERALDAS
Next election
2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event
next-0d8cd9addd10ce9a93afa4e9
Registry qualification
Qualified in source register

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • UNION POR LA REVOLUCION CIUDADANA34.1%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO23.2%
  • SOMOS QUININDE, LISTAS 1 - 1222.5%
  • ESMERALDAS, ES PRIMERO16.4%
  • PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR2.2%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK1.5%
Results for event-fac76668c36226f55bf95b9e
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
UNION POR LA REVOLUCION CIUDADANA · RONAL MORENO1270ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202322,96734.1%1Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO · GALO SILVINO ZAMBRANO ACOSTA32ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202315,61623.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
SOMOS QUININDE, LISTAS 1 - 12 · CARLOS BARCIA1300ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202315,14422.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ESMERALDAS, ES PRIMERO · YANINE ESPINAL1178ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202311,07416.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR · MARIELA MENDOZA MENDIETA231ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231,5052.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · ALONSO REINOSO7ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231,0181.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO30.6%
  • UNIDAD POPULAR28.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ20.7%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA5.2%
  • MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL4.9%
  • MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES2.6%
  • PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO1.9%
  • PARTIDO POLÍTICO AVANZA1.8%
  • UNION ECUATORIANA1.7%
  • FUERZA.EC1.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO LIBERTAD ES PUEBLO, LEP0.5%
Results for event-a890a131bdcbd35beed86afe
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO · CARLOS BARCIA MOLINA1ecuador/Sed7b513864/201918,02730.6%1Recorded
UNIDAD POPULAR · GALO ZAMBRANO143ecuador/Sed7b513864/201916,98428.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ · GUSTAVO DUEÑAS198ecuador/Sed7b513864/201912,18920.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA · VICTOR GONZALEZ RAMIREZ13ecuador/Sed7b513864/20193,0575.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL · MIRIAM RODRIGUEZ RODRIGUEZ170ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192,8994.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES · GALO CAMPO22ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,5272.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO · VINICIO GALLARDO VENEGAS3ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,1091.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO POLÍTICO AVANZA · UVALDINA NIEVES MONTAÑO25ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,0431.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
UNION ECUATORIANA · MIRIAN ANGELICA PEREZ BALDEON51ecuador/Sed7b513864/20199801.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
FUERZA.EC · NUVIA RENTERIA VALENCIA146ecuador/Sed7b513864/20197971.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO LIBERTAD ES PUEBLO, LEP · GARIS ERAZO BONE235ecuador/Sed7b513864/20193190.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS40.8%
  • PARTIDO AVANZA40.0%
  • PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO11.1%
  • PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO5.2%
  • MOVIMIENTO CREO2.9%
Results for event-1121994277dba8f7bc52e404
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS · CASANOVA MONTESINO LIZARDO MANUEL3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201422,56840.8%1Recorded
PARTIDO AVANZA · BARCIA MOLINA CARLOS SIMON6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201422,12240%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO · LOAIZA MURILLO ALEZ FERNANDO2ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20146,12511.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO · RODRIGUEZ RODRIGUEZ MIRIAM BLANCA10ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20142,8885.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO · AGUILAR VASQUEZ PATRICIO ERNESTO8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141,5912.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

64.190–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=10.918840235280136, oldest_gap=0.8065974608456585, previous_gap=1.7698664539885627

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

15.17percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[23.19529439724318,0,1.512090784861268,0,0,0,75.29261481789554],[30.590012047988324,0,0,2.5911659398279343,0,5.1874225789482615,61.63139943323547],[0,40.00795746373929,0,2.8773465475458457,0,40.81455492458495,16.300141064129924]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

75.92percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[23.19529439724318,0,1.512090784861268,0,0,0,75.29261481789554],[30.590012047988324,0,0,2.5911659398279343,0,5.1874225789482615,61.63139943323547],[0,40.00795746373929,0,2.8773465475458457,0,40.81455492458495,16.300141064129924]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

45.55percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[23.19529439724318,0,1.512090784861268,0,0,0,75.29261481789554],[30.590012047988324,0,0,2.5911659398279343,0,5.1874225789482615,61.63139943323547],[0,40.00795746373929,0,2.8773465475458457,0,40.81455492458495,16.300141064129924]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

Register observations
As ofElectorsNotes
2026-08-11103,253
Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.
{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 575,
  "cne_parish": null,
  "cne_province": 8,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electors_august": 103253,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-8-575",
  "name": "QUININDÉ / ESMERALDAS",
  "office": "Mayor",
  "precinct_rows": [
    1144,
    1145,
    1146,
    1154,
    1157,
    1166,
    1167,
    1168,
    1169,
    1170,
    1171,
    1172,
    1173,
    1174,
    1182,
    1183,
    1185,
    1186,
    1201,
    1202,
    1203,
    1204,
    1205,
    1206,
    1207,
    1208,
    1209,
    1210,
    1211,
    1212,
    1213,
    1214,
    1215,
    1216,
    1217,
    1218,
    1219,
    1220,
    1228,
    1229,
    1232,
    1233,
    1236,
    1238,
    1241,
    1253,
    1254,
    1255,
    1257,
    1258,
    1260,
    1262,
    1291,
    1292,
    1330,
    1331,
    1340,
    1344
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 7,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “QUININDÉ / ESMERALDAS — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-8-575. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.