Office briefing
ELOY ALFARO / ESMERALDAS — Mayor
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Ecuador · ELOY ALFARO / ESMERALDAS / ESMERALDAS · municipal · MayorEC-M-8-565
Read the complete original research briefing
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- ELOY ALFARO / ESMERALDAS / ESMERALDAS
- Next election
- 2026-11-29
- Linked upcoming event
- next-b86e32cdf15eb69f9bc2070f
- Registry qualification
- Qualified in source register
2. How certain is that date?
2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023-02-05
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO44.1%
- JUNTOS POR LA REVOLUCION CIUDADANA23.9%
- PRIMERO ELOY ALFARO16.2%
- SOMOS ELOY ALFARO LISTAS 1,12,23,3510.4%
- MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK4.3%
- PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR1.1%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO · ALI COROZO | 32ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 10,939 | 44.1% | 1 | Recorded |
| JUNTOS POR LA REVOLUCION CIUDADANA · FRANCISCO CASTRO AYOVI | 1367ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 5,939 | 23.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PRIMERO ELOY ALFARO · JOSE MANUEL PLAZA | 1264ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 4,013 | 16.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| SOMOS ELOY ALFARO LISTAS 1,12,23,35 · DAVID ROSERO CASTILLO | 1292ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 2,577 | 10.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · DOMINGO NAZARENO | 7ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 1,060 | 4.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR · NARDA CABRERA TORRES | 231ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 277 | 1.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2019-03-24
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ31.1%
- MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA29.7%
- PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO28.0%
- UNIDAD POPULAR6.6%
- PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO3.7%
- MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES0.9%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ · DAVID ROSERO CASTILLO | 198ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 6,485 | 31.1% | 1 | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA · RAUL PANCHANO MIDEROS | 13ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 6,183 | 29.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO · FRANCISCO CASTRO AYOVI | 1ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 5,831 | 28% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| UNIDAD POPULAR · CARLOS ALBERTO OBANDO VALENCIA | 143ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,384 | 6.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO · LEONARDA ZAMBRANO | 8ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 765 | 3.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES · MERCEDES MARTIN | 22ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 184 | 0.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2014-02-23
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS46.6%
- PARTIDO AVANZA45.8%
- MOVIMIENTO CREO3.8%
- PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO3.7%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS · CASTRO AYOVI JOSE FRANCISCO | 3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 7,793 | 46.6% | 1 | Recorded |
| PARTIDO AVANZA · COROZO MOSQUERA ALI MANUEL | 6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 7,658 | 45.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CREO · AYOVI CAICEDO SEGUNDO GUILLERMO | 8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 635 | 3.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO · ROSALES RODRIGUEZ PORCIA MARIA | 2ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 620 | 3.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI36.950–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=20.157226365652086, oldest_gap=0.8080929007542181, previous_gap=1.4496927803379442
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility30.56percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[44.099979842773635,0,4.273331989518242,0,0,0,51.626688167708124],[27.990591397849464,0,0,0.8832565284178188,0,29.680299539170505,41.44585253456221],[0,45.8398180294505,0,3.801029570214294,0,46.647910930204716,3.711241470130492]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility65.73percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[44.099979842773635,0,4.273331989518242,0,0,0,51.626688167708124],[27.990591397849464,0,0,0.8832565284178188,0,29.680299539170505,41.44585253456221],[0,45.8398180294505,0,3.801029570214294,0,46.647910930204716,3.711241470130492]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility48.14percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[44.099979842773635,0,4.273331989518242,0,0,0,51.626688167708124],[27.990591397849464,0,0,0.8832565284178188,0,29.680299539170505,41.44585253456221],[0,45.8398180294505,0,3.801029570214294,0,46.647910930204716,3.711241470130492]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
No officeholder observation supplied.
Electoral register observations
Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.
| As of | Electors | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | 39,172 | Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.{
"call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"cne_canton": 565,
"cne_parish": null,
"cne_province": 8,
"election_date": "2026-11-29",
"electors_august": 39172,
"jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-8-565",
"name": "ELOY ALFARO / ESMERALDAS",
"office": "Mayor",
"precinct_rows": [
1125,
1126,
1127,
1128,
1129,
1142,
1143,
1148,
1151,
1152,
1159,
1162,
1178,
1187,
1226,
1230,
1231,
1242,
1243,
1244,
1245,
1246,
1247,
1261,
1278,
1279,
1280,
1281,
1288,
1326,
1327,
1328,
1338,
1339,
1342,
1343
],
"record_type": "official_electoral_register",
"register_pdf_page": 7,
"register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"snapshot": "2026-08-11",
"source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
} |
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.
Sources
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/ · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2023.zip · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2023.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2014.sav · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2014.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE 2027 precinct and electorate distribution, cutoff 11 August 2026 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE resolution PLE-CNE-1-31-7-2026: ordinary election call for 29 November 2026 · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “ELOY ALFARO / ESMERALDAS — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-8-565. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.