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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

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Office briefing

BALSAS / EL ORO — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · BALSAS / EL ORO / EL ORO · municipal · MayorEC-M-7-875

Read the complete original research briefing

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
BALSAS / EL ORO / EL ORO
Next election
2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event
next-4d5b786c8872c00415a76234
Registry qualification
Qualified in source register

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • MOVIMIENTO SOMOS IGUALDAD, IMPULSO E INTEGRACIÓN SIII58.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO SUR UNIDO REGIONAL, S.U.R.39.7%
  • JUNTOS SEGUIREMOS HACIENDO HISTORIA 5-771.5%
Results for event-73ea35533af819db9a2e57a0
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO SOMOS IGUALDAD, IMPULSO E INTEGRACIÓN SIII · JOHANNA ARAVELLA AGUILAR APOLO170ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20233,45058.8%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO SUR UNIDO REGIONAL, S.U.R. · YUBER AÑAZCO CHAMBA147ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20232,33239.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
JUNTOS SEGUIREMOS HACIENDO HISTORIA 5-77 · KARLA ASCENCIO ROMERO1250ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023881.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • MOVIMIENTO SOMOS IGUALDAD, IMPULSO E INTEGRACIÓN SIII36.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ17.5%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO17.2%
  • MOVIMIENTO AUTONÓMICO REGIONAL, MAR15.6%
  • MOVIMIENTO RENOVACIÓN DEMOCRÁTICA BALSENSE9.3%
  • POR EL PROGRESO DEL CANTON4.0%
Results for event-c6a2d8a75d44761390f45e5e
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO SOMOS IGUALDAD, IMPULSO E INTEGRACIÓN SIII · YUBER AÑAZCO197ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192,01236.3%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ · ORLY GALVESTON VEGA ROQUE198ecuador/Sed7b513864/201997017.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO · PAUL BALCAZAR1ecuador/Sed7b513864/201995217.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO AUTONÓMICO REGIONAL, MAR · GEORGE APOLO4ecuador/Sed7b513864/201986715.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO RENOVACIÓN DEMOCRÁTICA BALSENSE · JUAN CARLOS ORDOÑEZ GALLARDO196ecuador/Sed7b513864/20195179.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
POR EL PROGRESO DEL CANTON · SILVERIO MALDONADO ZOSORANGA745ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192224%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • MOVIMIENTO CREO23.2%
  • PARTIDO AVANZA23.2%
  • ALIANZA SUMA - PSC21.4%
  • PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO19.1%
  • ALIANZA PAIS-MAR13.1%
Results for event-0a4a4e8e39e88d97a278c96f
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO CREO · PINTO RAMIREZ MANUEL ANDRES8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141,16323.2%1Recorded
PARTIDO AVANZA · CELI ARMIJOS LAURA EDITA6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141,16223.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA SUMA - PSC · AÑAZCO CHAMBA YUBER FAVIAN7010ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141,07221.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO · HUANCA VARGAS FRANCO TORIBIO10ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201495519.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA PAIS-MAR · ALVARADO RAMIREZ LUZ ANGELICA7007ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201465713.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

14.640–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=19.045996592844972, oldest_gap=0.019964064683566818, previous_gap=18.808664259927795

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,[17.184115523465703,0,0,0,0,0,82.8158844765343],[0,23.198243162307847,0,23.218207226991414,0,0,53.58354961070074]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

46.42percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,[17.184115523465703,0,0,0,0,0,82.8158844765343],[0,23.198243162307847,0,23.218207226991414,0,0,53.58354961070074]]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,[17.184115523465703,0,0,0,0,0,82.8158844765343],[0,23.198243162307847,0,23.218207226991414,0,0,53.58354961070074]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

Register observations
As ofElectorsNotes
2026-08-117,474
Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.
{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 875,
  "cne_parish": null,
  "cne_province": 7,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electors_august": 7474,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-7-875",
  "name": "BALSAS / EL ORO",
  "office": "Mayor",
  "precinct_rows": [
    1063,
    1064,
    1065
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 7,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “BALSAS / EL ORO — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-7-875. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.