Office briefing
MARCABELÍ / EL ORO — Mayor
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Ecuador · MARCABELÍ / EL ORO / EL ORO · municipal · MayorEC-M-7-860
Read the complete original research briefing
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- MARCABELÍ / EL ORO / EL ORO
- Next election
- 2026-11-29
- Linked upcoming event
- next-55d4116a54dd1d0fefc2bb8e
- Registry qualification
- Qualified in source register
2. How certain is that date?
2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023-02-05
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- JUNTOS POR MARCABELI42.0%
- JUNTOS SEGUIREMOS HACIENDO HISTORIA 5-7733.1%
- MOVIMIENTO AMIGO, ACCIÓN MOVILIZADORA INDEPENDIENTE GENERANDO OPORTUNIDADES22.0%
- PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO2.0%
- MOVIMIENTO SUR UNIDO REGIONAL, S.U.R.0.7%
- SUMATE Y CREE, SOMOS MAYORIA0.2%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNTOS POR MARCABELI · JONNY CUEVA | 1412ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 2,076 | 42% | 1 | Recorded |
| JUNTOS SEGUIREMOS HACIENDO HISTORIA 5-77 · OSMER ANTONIO RIOS RAMOS | 1250ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 1,639 | 33.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO AMIGO, ACCIÓN MOVILIZADORA INDEPENDIENTE GENERANDO OPORTUNIDADES · VICTOR FERNANDO BRAVO ENCALADA | 208ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 1,090 | 22% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO · GALO VALAREZO AGUILAR | 32ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 98 | 2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO SUR UNIDO REGIONAL, S.U.R. · JANETH PELAEZ GARCIA | 147ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 33 | 0.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| SUMATE Y CREE, SOMOS MAYORIA · YULIZA TORO ZEAS | 1273ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 9 | 0.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2019-03-24
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- CENTRO DEMOCRATICO29.1%
- MOVIMIENTO SUR UNIDO REGIONAL26.5%
- SIII 88 CREO 2126.1%
- PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO12.5%
- MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK5.8%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CENTRO DEMOCRATICO · EFREN PANGAY | 145ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,337 | 29.1% | 1 | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO SUR UNIDO REGIONAL · JONNY CUEVA RAMIREZ | 147ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,220 | 26.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| SIII 88 CREO 21 · ANGEL PEREZ | 641ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,202 | 26.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO · HUGO GIOVANNY CRESPO JARAMILLO | 1ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 575 | 12.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · GRACIELA APOLO VALAREZO | 12ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 266 | 5.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2014-02-23
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- PARTIDO AVANZA33.8%
- MOVIMIENTO CREO32.5%
- ALIANZA PAIS-MAR20.4%
- PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO8.4%
- MOVIMIENTO SUMA1.8%
- MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK1.6%
- PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO1.5%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PARTIDO AVANZA · CALOZUMA ARMIJOS EFREN ESCOBAR | 6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 1,345 | 33.8% | 1 | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CREO · PANGAY CHAMBA EFREN SEGUNDO | 8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 1,290 | 32.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| ALIANZA PAIS-MAR · APOLO RAMIREZ HUGO MARIO | 7007ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 809 | 20.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO · VALAREZO AGUILAR GALO BOLIVAR | 11ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 332 | 8.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO SUMA · AÑAZCO VALAREZO JUAN FERNANDO | 13ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 73 | 1.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · PELAEZ GARCIA AURA JANETH | 5ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 65 | 1.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO · AÑAZCO APOLO BOLIVAR GUILLERMO | 1ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 60 | 1.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI68.980–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=8.837209302325583, oldest_gap=1.3839959738298973, previous_gap=2.5434782608695663
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility16.3percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[1.9817997977755308,0,0,0,0,0,98.01820020222446],[12.5,0,5.782608695652174,0,0,0,81.71739130434781],[8.354302969300454,33.84499245093105,1.6356316054353297,32.460996477101155,1.8369401107196779,0,21.867136386512332]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility68.14percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[1.9817997977755308,0,0,0,0,0,98.01820020222446],[12.5,0,5.782608695652174,0,0,0,81.71739130434781],[8.354302969300454,33.84499245093105,1.6356316054353297,32.460996477101155,1.8369401107196779,0,21.867136386512332]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility42.22percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[1.9817997977755308,0,0,0,0,0,98.01820020222446],[12.5,0,5.782608695652174,0,0,0,81.71739130434781],[8.354302969300454,33.84499245093105,1.6356316054353297,32.460996477101155,1.8369401107196779,0,21.867136386512332]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
No officeholder observation supplied.
Electoral register observations
Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.
| As of | Electors | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | 5,952 | Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.{
"call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"cne_canton": 860,
"cne_parish": null,
"cne_province": 7,
"election_date": "2026-11-29",
"electors_august": 5952,
"jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-7-860",
"name": "MARCABELÍ / EL ORO",
"office": "Mayor",
"precinct_rows": [
1060,
1061,
1062
],
"record_type": "official_electoral_register",
"register_pdf_page": 7,
"register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"snapshot": "2026-08-11",
"source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
} |
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.
Sources
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/ · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2023.zip · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2023.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2014.sav · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2014.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE 2027 precinct and electorate distribution, cutoff 11 August 2026 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE resolution PLE-CNE-1-31-7-2026: ordinary election call for 29 November 2026 · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “MARCABELÍ / EL ORO — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-7-860. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.