Office briefing
EL GUABO / EL ORO — Mayor
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Ecuador · EL GUABO / EL ORO / EL ORO · municipal · MayorEC-M-7-380
Read the complete original research briefing
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- EL GUABO / EL ORO / EL ORO
- Next election
- 2026-11-29
- Linked upcoming event
- next-47bd72e0a94a06ff301081ab
- Registry qualification
- Qualified in source register
2. How certain is that date?
2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023-02-05
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- MOVIMIENTO SUR UNIDO REGIONAL, S.U.R.37.5%
- MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK25.3%
- PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO13.7%
- JUNTOS SEGUIREMOS HACIENDO HISTORIA 5-7713.5%
- AVANZAMOS POR EL CAMBIO4.6%
- PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA3.2%
- PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO1.1%
- MOVIMIENTO AMIGO, ACCIÓN MOVILIZADORA INDEPENDIENTE GENERANDO OPORTUNIDADES0.5%
- PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR0.4%
- EL ORO RENACE0.2%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOVIMIENTO SUR UNIDO REGIONAL, S.U.R. · HITLER ALVAREZ BEJARANO | 147ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 12,820 | 37.5% | 1 | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · JORGE RAMON | 7ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 8,644 | 25.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO · GUILLERMO SERRANO | 32ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 4,695 | 13.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| JUNTOS SEGUIREMOS HACIENDO HISTORIA 5-77 · DOUGLAS ASISCLO ALAÑA JERVES | 1250ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 4,624 | 13.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| AVANZAMOS POR EL CAMBIO · JIMMY VALVERDE PELAEZ | 1434ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 1,558 | 4.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · YOVANKA MORA | 117ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 1,106 | 3.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO · JOSE SANTIAGO PELAEZ OYOLA | 34ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 362 | 1.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO AMIGO, ACCIÓN MOVILIZADORA INDEPENDIENTE GENERANDO OPORTUNIDADES · MARIBEL GUAZHA | 208ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 159 | 0.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR · SANDY ZURIAGA ENRIQUEZ | 231ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 130 | 0.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| EL ORO RENACE · JUANA ROMERO MALDONADO | 1368ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 60 | 0.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2019-03-24
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- MOVIMIENTO AUTONÓMICO REGIONAL, MAR26.1%
- PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO24.4%
- CENTRO DEMOCRATICO-SUR20.0%
- MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL16.9%
- DEMOCRACIA SI Y ALIANZA PAIS10.7%
- MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES1.9%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOVIMIENTO AUTONÓMICO REGIONAL, MAR · HITLER ALVAREZ BEJARANO | 4ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 8,581 | 26.1% | 1 | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO · GUILLERMO SERRANO CARRION | 1ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 8,025 | 24.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| CENTRO DEMOCRATICO-SUR · DOUGLAS ALAÑA JERVES | 785ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 6,594 | 20% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL · ARIEL QUEVEDO | 148ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 5,553 | 16.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| DEMOCRACIA SI Y ALIANZA PAIS · BOLIVAR EUGENIO MARQUEZ SAGAL | 707ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 3,514 | 10.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES · JAIME GONZALO CHICAIZA CHANGO | 22ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 637 | 1.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2014-02-23
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO50.8%
- ALIANZA PAIS-MAR34.1%
- PARTIDO AVANZA5.7%
- PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO3.5%
- MOVIMIENTO CREO3.3%
- MOVIMIENTO SUMA2.6%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO · SERRANO CARRION MANUEL GUILLERMO ENRIQUE | 11ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 14,729 | 50.8% | 1 | Recorded |
| ALIANZA PAIS-MAR · FRANCO AGUILAR JOHN MILTON | 7007ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 9,903 | 34.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO AVANZA · BLACIO VARGAS CARMEN GLICERIA | 6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 1,641 | 5.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO · QUEVEDO CONDE JORGE ABERROES | 1ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 1,018 | 3.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CREO · CARRION ROMERO EDDIE EDUARDO | 8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 966 | 3.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO SUMA · NIEVES MONTENEGRO ROBERT JOHNNSSON | 13ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 758 | 2.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI52.470–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=12.225540137010363, oldest_gap=16.632776150267105, previous_gap=1.6897641624118656
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility25.31percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[13.74494993852099,0,25.305931260612446,0,0,0,60.949118800866565],[24.389132020423048,0,0,1.935934840748845,0,0,73.67493313882812],[50.763398242288474,5.655695330001723,0,3.3293124246079615,2.612441840427365,0,37.63915216267448]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility36.04percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[13.74494993852099,0,25.305931260612446,0,0,0,60.949118800866565],[24.389132020423048,0,0,1.935934840748845,0,0,73.67493313882812],[50.763398242288474,5.655695330001723,0,3.3293124246079615,2.612441840427365,0,37.63915216267448]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility30.67percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[13.74494993852099,0,25.305931260612446,0,0,0,60.949118800866565],[24.389132020423048,0,0,1.935934840748845,0,0,73.67493313882812],[50.763398242288474,5.655695330001723,0,3.3293124246079615,2.612441840427365,0,37.63915216267448]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
No officeholder observation supplied.
Electoral register observations
Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.
| As of | Electors | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | 45,455 | Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.{
"call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"cne_canton": 380,
"cne_parish": null,
"cne_province": 7,
"election_date": "2026-11-29",
"electors_august": 45455,
"jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-7-380",
"name": "EL GUABO / EL ORO",
"office": "Mayor",
"precinct_rows": [
876,
899,
900,
904,
986,
996,
997,
998,
999,
1000,
1001,
1089,
1100,
1101,
1102
],
"record_type": "official_electoral_register",
"register_pdf_page": 7,
"register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"snapshot": "2026-08-11",
"source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
} |
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.
Sources
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/ · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2023.zip · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2023.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2014.sav · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2014.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE 2027 precinct and electorate distribution, cutoff 11 August 2026 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE resolution PLE-CNE-1-31-7-2026: ordinary election call for 29 November 2026 · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “EL GUABO / EL ORO — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-7-380. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.