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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

SALCEDO / COTOPAXI — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · SALCEDO / COTOPAXI / COTOPAXI · municipal · MayorEC-M-5-110

Read the complete original research briefing

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
SALCEDO / COTOPAXI / COTOPAXI
Next election
2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event
next-985d132f527f3645f82641c1
Registry qualification
Qualified in source register

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • PARTIDO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MÁS ACCIÓN, SUMA42.4%
  • UNIDAD SALCEDENSE19.6%
  • MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA10.8%
  • SALCEDENSES POR UNA RENOVACIÓN INTEGRAL9.0%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK7.9%
  • UNIDAD Y DESARROLLO7.2%
  • FUERZA SALCEDENSE1.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO AMIGO, ACCIÓN MOVILIZADORA INDEPENDIENTE GENERANDO OPORTUNIDADES1.3%
Results for event-a1c81f2d9a4047f9aecc7440
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MÁS ACCIÓN, SUMA · JUAN PAUL PACHECO VELASQUEZ42ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202317,19942.4%1Recorded
UNIDAD SALCEDENSE · WILLAN POLIVIO NARANJO TORRES1268ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20237,93619.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA · IVAN SORIA207ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20234,38410.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
SALCEDENSES POR UNA RENOVACIÓN INTEGRAL · RAFAEL ANTONIO FONSECA RAMIREZ1427ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20233,6649%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · MAGALY MIGUELINA VILLALBA POZO7ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20233,2187.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
UNIDAD Y DESARROLLO · FELIX MANJARRES ARIAS1353ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20232,9117.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
FUERZA SALCEDENSE · CESAR GERMAN POZO YEPEZ1373ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20237261.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO AMIGO, ACCIÓN MOVILIZADORA INDEPENDIENTE GENERANDO OPORTUNIDADES · MAYRA ORTEGA208ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20235131.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • MOVIMIENTO VISION SALCEDENSE37.1%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK26.7%
  • MOVIMIENTO ACTIVO SALCEDENSE, M.A.S.18.8%
  • ALIANZA EL TRABAJO CONTINUA7.3%
  • CENTRO DEMOCRATICO5.6%
  • ALIANZA AVANZA 8 - PSC 63.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA0.8%
Results for event-7b654aafb8c6f45669fc4b05
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO VISION SALCEDENSE · WILLAN NARANJO186ecuador/Sed7b513864/201915,47437.1%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · LOURDES TIBAN12ecuador/Sed7b513864/201911,12326.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ACTIVO SALCEDENSE, M.A.S. · EDWIN ANIBAL ALARCON FONSECA84ecuador/Sed7b513864/20197,82918.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA EL TRABAJO CONTINUA · NANCY CRUZ738ecuador/Sed7b513864/20193,0417.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
CENTRO DEMOCRATICO · FELIX MANJARRES145ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192,3195.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA AVANZA 8 - PSC 6 · RODRIGO MATA506ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,5903.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA · ALBERTO TAXO TACO37ecuador/Sed7b513864/20193170.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • UNIDAD SALCEDENSE PACHAKUTIK LISTAS 18 - A.T.I. LISTA 10135.2%
  • MOVIMIENTO ACTIVO SALCEDENSE21.6%
  • ALIANZA CANTONAL SALCEDO AVANZA 8 -SEA 10315.5%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS15.1%
  • MOVIMIENTO SUMA10.2%
  • PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO"2.4%
Results for event-07ead5ced8dcfed8c1d632a9
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
UNIDAD SALCEDENSE PACHAKUTIK LISTAS 18 - A.T.I. LISTA 101 · GUTIERREZ PADILLA HECTOR GUSTAVO5006ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201412,89035.2%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ACTIVO SALCEDENSE · ALARCON FONSECA EDWIN ANIBAL5002ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20147,89821.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA CANTONAL SALCEDO AVANZA 8 -SEA 103 · MATA CEPEDA MARIO RODRIGO5007ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20145,66215.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS · DEL TORO ABATA ESTELA NARCISA DE JESUS3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20145,52815.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO SUMA · ACHOTE ESTRELLA CARLOS GONZALO13ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20143,73510.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO" · NAVAS VELA LENIN PATRICIO4ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20148782.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

90–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=22.842839880644124, oldest_gap=13.64269902435025, previous_gap=10.435804571510804

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

19.5percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,0,7.935685926364331,0,0,0,92.06431407363567],[0,0,26.678339289568992,0,0.7603194780898472,0,72.56134123234116],[0,0,0,0,10.207428056079364,15.107540105490422,74.68503183843022]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

26.68percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,0,7.935685926364331,0,0,0,92.06431407363567],[0,0,26.678339289568992,0,0.7603194780898472,0,72.56134123234116],[0,0,0,0,10.207428056079364,15.107540105490422,74.68503183843022]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

23.09percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,0,7.935685926364331,0,0,0,92.06431407363567],[0,0,26.678339289568992,0,0.7603194780898472,0,72.56134123234116],[0,0,0,0,10.207428056079364,15.107540105490422,74.68503183843022]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

Register observations
As ofElectorsNotes
2026-08-1156,393
Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.
{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 110,
  "cne_parish": null,
  "cne_province": 5,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electors_august": 56393,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-5-110",
  "name": "SALCEDO / COTOPAXI",
  "office": "Mayor",
  "precinct_rows": [
    585,
    586,
    631,
    632,
    633,
    634,
    635,
    636,
    637,
    638,
    639,
    640,
    641,
    645,
    647,
    648,
    649,
    650,
    651,
    652,
    653
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 7,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “SALCEDO / COTOPAXI — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-5-110. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.