Office briefing
BOLÍVAR / CARCHI — Mayor
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Ecuador · BOLÍVAR / CARCHI / CARCHI · municipal · MayorEC-M-4-25
Read the complete original research briefing
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- BOLÍVAR / CARCHI / CARCHI
- Next election
- 2026-11-29
- Linked upcoming event
- next-e48f8b248b9c5c328e8f7a73
- Registry qualification
- Qualified in source register
2. How certain is that date?
2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023-02-05
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- MOVIMIENTO SOCIAL CONSERVADOR DEL CARCHI LISTA 63- MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO NACIONAL LISTA 134.8%
- FUERZA ACTIVA BOLIVARENSE31.0%
- PARTIDO AVANZA23.4%
- IZQUIERDA DEMOCRATICA MOVIMIENTO PUEBLO IGUALDAD DEMOCRACIA5.5%
- MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES4.3%
- MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK1.0%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOVIMIENTO SOCIAL CONSERVADOR DEL CARCHI LISTA 63- MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO NACIONAL LISTA 1 · LIVARDO BENALCAZAR GUERRON | 1122ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 3,748 | 34.8% | 1 | Recorded |
| FUERZA ACTIVA BOLIVARENSE · CRISTIAM PABON | 1266ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 3,340 | 31% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO AVANZA · JORGE ALEXANDER ANGULO DAVILA | 101ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 2,521 | 23.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| IZQUIERDA DEMOCRATICA MOVIMIENTO PUEBLO IGUALDAD DEMOCRACIA · CRISTINA PABON | 1110ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 590 | 5.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES · CARLOS ALDAS | 99ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 458 | 4.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · KEYLA MENESES ESPINOSA | 7ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 113 | 1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2019-03-24
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- ALIANZA MSC CONSERVADORES LISTA 63 -PSC LISTA 637.9%
- ALIANZA IZQUIERDA DEMOCRATICA-AVANZA LISTAS 12-821.0%
- MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA19.8%
- MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ12.0%
- MOVIMIENTO LIDERA-CARCHI7.4%
- ALIANZA UNIDOS POR BOLIVAR1.9%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALIANZA MSC CONSERVADORES LISTA 63 -PSC LISTA 6 · LIVARDO BENALCAZAR | 567ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 3,773 | 37.9% | 1 | Recorded |
| ALIANZA IZQUIERDA DEMOCRATICA-AVANZA LISTAS 12-8 · JORGE ANGULO | 544ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 2,090 | 21% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA · CRISTIAM PABON VASQUEZ | 13ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,975 | 19.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ · DAVID PABON | 198ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,195 | 12% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO LIDERA-CARCHI · PAUL HERRERIA LLORE | 116ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 742 | 7.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| ALIANZA UNIDOS POR BOLIVAR · LEONARDO MENESES POZO | 583ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 193 | 1.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2014-02-23
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- ALIANZA MOVIMIENTO INTEGRACION DEMOCRATICA DEL CARCHI, LISTAS 65 Y PARTIDO POLITICO AVANZA, LISTAS 861.7%
- ALIANZA MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS-MOVIMIENTO LIDERA CARCHI38.3%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALIANZA MOVIMIENTO INTEGRACION DEMOCRATICA DEL CARCHI, LISTAS 65 Y PARTIDO POLITICO AVANZA, LISTAS 8 · ANGULO DAVILA JORGE ALEXANDER | 4012ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 5,728 | 61.7% | 1 | Recorded |
| ALIANZA MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS-MOVIMIENTO LIDERA CARCHI · HIDROBO GUERRERO HUGO ERNESTO | 4013ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 3,549 | 38.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI51.560–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=3.7883008356545993, oldest_gap=23.48819661528512, previous_gap=16.88402889245586
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility28.71percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,23.40761374187558,1.0492107706592386,4.25255338904364,0,0,71.29062209842155],[0,0,0,0,0,19.813402889245587,80.18659711075442],null]
pedersen volatility
Withheld volatilityUnknownpercentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,23.40761374187558,1.0492107706592386,4.25255338904364,0,0,71.29062209842155],[0,0,0,0,0,19.813402889245587,80.18659711075442],null]
pedersen volatility
Withheld volatilityUnknownpercentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,23.40761374187558,1.0492107706592386,4.25255338904364,0,0,71.29062209842155],[0,0,0,0,0,19.813402889245587,80.18659711075442],null]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
No officeholder observation supplied.
Electoral register observations
Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.
| As of | Electors | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | 13,687 | Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.{
"call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"cne_canton": 25,
"cne_parish": null,
"cne_province": 4,
"election_date": "2026-11-29",
"electors_august": 13687,
"jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-4-25",
"name": "BOLÍVAR / CARCHI",
"office": "Mayor",
"precinct_rows": [
496,
502,
503,
511,
512,
513,
514,
515,
519,
522,
524,
562,
563,
564,
565,
566
],
"record_type": "official_electoral_register",
"register_pdf_page": 7,
"register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"snapshot": "2026-08-11",
"source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
} |
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.
Sources
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/ · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2023.zip · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2023.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2014.sav · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2014.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE 2027 precinct and electorate distribution, cutoff 11 August 2026 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE resolution PLE-CNE-1-31-7-2026: ordinary election call for 29 November 2026 · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “BOLÍVAR / CARCHI — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-4-25. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.