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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

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Office briefing

SUSCAL / CAÑAR — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · SUSCAL / CAÑAR / CAÑAR · municipal · MayorEC-M-3-241

Read the complete original research briefing

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
SUSCAL / CAÑAR / CAÑAR
Next election
2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event
next-c5197c8ca5fb0186cbc10f3c
Registry qualification
Qualified in source register

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • MOVIMIENTO ALLI KAWSAY51.1%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK42.5%
  • UNIDOS POR CAÑAR5.3%
  • CAÑAR EMPRENDE 5-170.8%
  • CAÑAR RENACE CONTIGO0.4%
Results for event-dcd479990038d92d886ac5f1
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO ALLI KAWSAY · LUIS ANTONIO POMAQUIZA CASTRO218ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231,72151.1%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · RUBEN DARIO LOJA LEMA7ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231,43142.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
UNIDOS POR CAÑAR · MARIA NARCISA CASTRO1153ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231805.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
CAÑAR EMPRENDE 5-17 · ZOILA MERCEDES MAYLLAZHUNGO1306ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023270.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
CAÑAR RENACE CONTIGO · ANA LUCIA TENEZACA LOJA1190ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023120.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK45.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALLI KAWSAY41.3%
  • CAÑAR EMPRENDE13.5%
Results for event-93141a32d2904b78a423e2f4
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · MANUEL POMAQUIZA12ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,58245.3%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ALLI KAWSAY · LUIS POMAQUIZA CASTRO270ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,44241.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
CAÑAR EMPRENDE · GILBERTO GUAMAN636ecuador/Sed7b513864/201947013.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK36.6%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS35.1%
  • PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO16.9%
  • PARTIDO AVANZA11.4%
Results for event-1047eb2e1eb5041ca4bc497d
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · GUAMAN TACURI ANGEL MARIA5ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141,21236.6%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS · MOROCHO PINGUIL ABELINA3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141,16135.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO · LEMA GUAMAN INES ERLINDA10ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201455816.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO AVANZA · SANCHEZ BUÑAY DECIDERIO CLAUDINO6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201437711.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

67.410–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=8.602788490062295, oldest_gap=1.541717049576782, previous_gap=4.006868918145393

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

2.83percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,0,42.450311480272916,0,0,0,57.54968851972708],[0,0,45.27761877504293,0,0,0,54.72238122495707],[0,11.396614268440144,36.63845223700121,0,0,35.09673518742443,16.86819830713422]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

46.49percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,0,42.450311480272916,0,0,0,57.54968851972708],[0,0,45.27761877504293,0,0,0,54.72238122495707],[0,11.396614268440144,36.63845223700121,0,0,35.09673518742443,16.86819830713422]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

24.66percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,0,42.450311480272916,0,0,0,57.54968851972708],[0,0,45.27761877504293,0,0,0,54.72238122495707],[0,11.396614268440144,36.63845223700121,0,0,35.09673518742443,16.86819830713422]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

Register observations
As ofElectorsNotes
2026-08-114,757
Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.
{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 241,
  "cne_parish": null,
  "cne_province": 3,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electors_august": 4757,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-3-241",
  "name": "SUSCAL / CAÑAR",
  "office": "Mayor",
  "precinct_rows": [
    376,
    484,
    485
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 7,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “SUSCAL / CAÑAR — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-3-241. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.