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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

FCO.DE ORELLANA / ORELLANA — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · FCO.DE ORELLANA / ORELLANA / ORELLANA · municipal · MayorEC-M-22-645

Read the complete original research briefing

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
FCO.DE ORELLANA / ORELLANA / ORELLANA
Next election
2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event
next-328fe69999bd316c0b4129c6
Registry qualification
Qualified in source register

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • ALIANZA DE LA RENOVACION40.0%
  • PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR27.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRÁTICO11.6%
  • ALIANZA SÍ AL PROGRESO11.1%
  • MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA6.1%
  • MOVIMIENTO DEL PUEBLO2.1%
  • ALIANZA UNIDAD AMAZÓNICA1.8%
Results for event-461dbd0a78e3ef373c83c4c6
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
ALIANZA DE LA RENOVACION · RICARDO RAMIREZ1025ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202320,71440%1Recorded
PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR · IVAN LOPEZ231ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202314,18927.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRÁTICO · JOSE LUCAS124ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20236,00911.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA SÍ AL PROGRESO · GORETTY RON1045ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20235,77711.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA · MILTON TAPIA MELO207ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20233,1636.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DEL PUEBLO · ANTONIO CABRERA VERA19ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231,0772.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA UNIDAD AMAZÓNICA · CARLOS AÑAZCO1069ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20239121.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • ALIANZA ORELLANA54.6%
  • ALIANZA MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK LISTA 18 MOVIMIENTO ECUATORIANO UNIDO LISTA 4 PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO LISTA 620.1%
  • ALIANZA VAMOS POR EL CAMBIO9.6%
  • ALIANZA AVANZAMOS JUNTOS9.0%
  • ALIANZA SI PODEMOS CON FE4.1%
  • IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA1.8%
  • CENTRO DEMOCRATICO0.7%
Results for event-07889dd71d746c5cae08b589
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
ALIANZA ORELLANA · RICARDO RAMIREZ502ecuador/Sed7b513864/201926,17154.6%1Recorded
ALIANZA MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK LISTA 18 MOVIMIENTO ECUATORIANO UNIDO LISTA 4 PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO LISTA 6 · GUADALUPE LLORI ABARCA582ecuador/Sed7b513864/20199,65420.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA VAMOS POR EL CAMBIO · CARLOS IVAN LOPEZ PUENTE586ecuador/Sed7b513864/20194,5849.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA AVANZAMOS JUNTOS · BOLIVAR MIELES574ecuador/Sed7b513864/20194,3169%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA SI PODEMOS CON FE · CARLOS NARVAEZ801ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,9824.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · TELMO GARCIA152ecuador/Sed7b513864/20198741.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
CENTRO DEMOCRATICO · CARLOS AVILES145ecuador/Sed7b513864/20193490.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • ALIANZA 35-6239.4%
  • DESPIERTA ORELLANA30.2%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK21.1%
  • PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO"7.5%
  • PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO1.7%
Results for event-bc857c9ff2d24cd84e2776d8
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
ALIANZA 35-62 · RIVAS PARRAGA ANITA CAROLINA22015ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201415,35139.4%1Recorded
DESPIERTA ORELLANA · MIELES PINARGOTE SIMON BOLIVAR22005ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201411,75830.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · ROSERO ROSERO JHON JAIRO5ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20148,23121.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO" · VIDAL GOMEZ FANNY MARGARITA4ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20142,9297.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO · PRECIADO ANGULO ERCIN WILLIAM2ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20146721.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

5.940–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=12.586562759206036, oldest_gap=9.22677897331861, previous_gap=34.46067181306071

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,null,[0,0,21.137104850928328,0,0,0,78.86289514907168]]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,null,[0,0,21.137104850928328,0,0,0,78.86289514907168]]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,null,[0,0,21.137104850928328,0,0,0,78.86289514907168]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

Register observations
As ofElectorsNotes
2026-08-1177,435
Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.
{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 645,
  "cne_parish": null,
  "cne_province": 22,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electors_august": 77435,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-22-645",
  "name": "FCO.DE ORELLANA / ORELLANA",
  "office": "Mayor",
  "precinct_rows": [
    4097,
    4099,
    4106,
    4109,
    4110,
    4111,
    4112,
    4113,
    4114,
    4115,
    4116,
    4117,
    4118,
    4119,
    4120,
    4142,
    4143,
    4144,
    4145,
    4146,
    4147,
    4148,
    4149,
    4150,
    4151,
    4152,
    4153,
    4160,
    4161,
    4163,
    4164,
    4165,
    4166,
    4170,
    4171,
    4172,
    4173,
    4174,
    4175,
    4188
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 7,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “FCO.DE ORELLANA / ORELLANA — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-22-645. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.