Office briefing
CASCALES / SUCUMBÍOS — Mayor
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Ecuador · CASCALES / SUCUMBÍOS / SUCUMBÍOS · municipal · MayorEC-M-21-745
Read the complete original research briefing
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- CASCALES / SUCUMBÍOS / SUCUMBÍOS
- Next election
- 2026-11-29
- Linked upcoming event
- next-c994f8cf3a202cc60ddb8ef2
- Registry qualification
- Qualified in source register
2. How certain is that date?
2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023-02-05
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- UNIDOS SOMOS MAS51.9%
- MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO INDEPENDIENTE MUSHUK INTI28.6%
- SUCUMBIOS POR EL CAMBIO10.9%
- MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA4.6%
- UNIDAD NUEVAS OPCIONES2.6%
- MOVIMIENTO PUEBLO IGUALDAD DEMOCRACIA PID1.5%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNIDOS SOMOS MAS · WILSON SANMARTIN | 1362ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 3,854 | 51.9% | 1 | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO INDEPENDIENTE MUSHUK INTI · ORLANDO GREFA | 223ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 2,125 | 28.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| SUCUMBIOS POR EL CAMBIO · ALBARO BELTRAN | 1133ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 807 | 10.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA · DEYSI ROJAS | 207ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 339 | 4.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| UNIDAD NUEVAS OPCIONES · ERIKA RAMON | 1031ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 190 | 2.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO PUEBLO IGUALDAD DEMOCRACIA PID · MARUJA JIMENEZ JIMENEZ | 222ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 111 | 1.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2019-03-24
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA38.4%
- MOVIMIENTO PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK LISTAS 18 - MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SI LISTAS 2027.0%
- PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO20.0%
- ALIANZA POR LA UNIDAD LEALTAD Y VICTORIA14.7%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA · SILVIO QUEVEDO | 37ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 2,582 | 38.4% | 1 | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK LISTAS 18 - MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SI LISTAS 20 · RUTH PEÑAFIEL | 695ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,813 | 27% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO · JAIME RIERA | 3ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,341 | 20% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| ALIANZA POR LA UNIDAD LEALTAD Y VICTORIA · YOBANY BOSQUEZ RODRIGUEZ | 546ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 985 | 14.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2014-02-23
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK34.9%
- PARTIDO AVANZA23.3%
- PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO"15.9%
- ALIANZA PAIS - MUSHUK INTI. LISTAS 35-6114.1%
- MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO INDEPENDIENTE UNIDAD CASCALEÑA9.9%
- MOVIMIENTO CREO1.9%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · RIERA RODRIGUEZ JAIME RUBEN | 5ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 2,039 | 34.9% | 1 | Recorded |
| PARTIDO AVANZA · QUEVEDO GALARZA SILVIO JOSE | 6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 1,362 | 23.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO" · QUEZADA ROMERO FRANKLIN EDUARDO | 4ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 926 | 15.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| ALIANZA PAIS - MUSHUK INTI. LISTAS 35-61 · ROBLES GUATO LASTENIA ALEXANDRA | 21004ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 822 | 14.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO INDEPENDIENTE UNIDAD CASCALEÑA · GARCIA MENESES LEON ENRIQUE | 21003ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 577 | 9.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CREO · GREFA VARGAS CRISTIAN DAVID | 8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 109 | 1.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI7.190–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=23.283059520603285, oldest_gap=11.602399314481573, previous_gap=11.441749739622082
pedersen volatility
Withheld volatilityUnknownpercentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,[0,0,0,0,38.41690224668948,0,61.58309775331052],[0,23.34190231362468,34.94430162810625,1.868037703513282,0,0,39.84575835475579]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility60.15percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,[0,0,0,0,38.41690224668948,0,61.58309775331052],[0,23.34190231362468,34.94430162810625,1.868037703513282,0,0,39.84575835475579]]
pedersen volatility
Withheld volatilityUnknownpercentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,[0,0,0,0,38.41690224668948,0,61.58309775331052],[0,23.34190231362468,34.94430162810625,1.868037703513282,0,0,39.84575835475579]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
No officeholder observation supplied.
Electoral register observations
Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.
| As of | Electors | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | 10,116 | Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.{
"call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"cne_canton": 745,
"cne_parish": null,
"cne_province": 21,
"election_date": "2026-11-29",
"electors_august": 10116,
"jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-21-745",
"name": "CASCALES / SUCUMBÍOS",
"office": "Mayor",
"precinct_rows": [
3972,
3975,
3976,
3978,
4046,
4047,
4048,
4049,
4050,
4067,
4084,
4091,
4096
],
"record_type": "official_electoral_register",
"register_pdf_page": 7,
"register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"snapshot": "2026-08-11",
"source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
} |
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.
Sources
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/ · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2023.zip · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2023.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2014.sav · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2014.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE 2027 precinct and electorate distribution, cutoff 11 August 2026 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE resolution PLE-CNE-1-31-7-2026: ordinary election call for 29 November 2026 · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “CASCALES / SUCUMBÍOS — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-21-745. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.