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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

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Office briefing

ISABELA / GALÁPAGOS — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · ISABELA / GALÁPAGOS / GALÁPAGOS · municipal · MayorEC-M-20-810

Read the complete original research briefing

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
ISABELA / GALÁPAGOS / GALÁPAGOS
Next election
2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event
next-be7ba58f70fc9113847a2c49
Registry qualification
Qualified in source register

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • MOVIMIENTO DE IDENTIDAD PROVINCIAL, MIP27.0%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO26.1%
  • PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA20.6%
  • MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA14.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO RENOVACIÓN TOTAL, RETO11.4%
Results for event-d8f30efa72aeef89db92f06e
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO DE IDENTIDAD PROVINCIAL, MIP · ALFREDO MOROCHO38ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202351527%1Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO · PABLO ARTURO GORDILLO GIL32ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202349826.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · DELSY JARAMILLO GIL117ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202339320.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA · ROLANDO TUPIZA207ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202328214.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO RENOVACIÓN TOTAL, RETO · ALVARO TORO226ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202321811.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA41.4%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO35.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE IDENTIDAD PROVINCIAL, MIP23.2%
Results for event-f7770200e0c17a7204948aff
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA · BOLIVAR TUPIZA GIL13ecuador/Sed7b513864/201972741.4%1Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO · PABLO GORDILLO GIL1ecuador/Sed7b513864/201962335.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE IDENTIDAD PROVINCIAL, MIP · ALFREDO MOROCHO CARAGUAY7ecuador/Sed7b513864/201940823.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • PARTIDO AVANZA39.6%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS39.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO SOY ISABELEÑO7.7%
  • MOVIMIENTO REENCUENTRO YA7.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE IDENTIDAD PROVINCIAL6.0%
Results for event-0d2c6bd9b9f51213cf598d50
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO AVANZA · GORDILLO GIL PABLO ARTURO6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201462539.6%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS · TUPIZA GIL LEONARDO BOLIVAR3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201461939.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO SOY ISABELEÑO · GOMEZ GIL BYRON EFREN20005ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141217.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO REENCUENTRO YA · ABUDEYE VELEZ RODOLFO EDUARDO20001ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141177.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE IDENTIDAD PROVINCIAL · GIL YEPEZ LEONEL GUIDO20003ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014956%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

88.260–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=0.8919202518363036, oldest_gap=0.380469245402665, previous_gap=5.915813424345849

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

50.66percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[26.128016789087095,0,0,0,0,0,73.8719832109129],[35.43799772468714,0,0,0,0,41.35381114903299,23.208191126279864],[0,39.632213062777424,0,0,0,39.25174381737476,21.116043119847813]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

39.63percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[26.128016789087095,0,0,0,0,0,73.8719832109129],[35.43799772468714,0,0,0,0,41.35381114903299,23.208191126279864],[0,39.632213062777424,0,0,0,39.25174381737476,21.116043119847813]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

45.15percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[26.128016789087095,0,0,0,0,0,73.8719832109129],[35.43799772468714,0,0,0,0,41.35381114903299,23.208191126279864],[0,39.632213062777424,0,0,0,39.25174381737476,21.116043119847813]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

Register observations
As ofElectorsNotes
2026-08-112,476
Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.
{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 810,
  "cne_parish": null,
  "cne_province": 20,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electors_august": 2476,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-20-810",
  "name": "ISABELA / GALÁPAGOS",
  "office": "Mayor",
  "precinct_rows": [
    3967,
    3968,
    3969
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 7,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “ISABELA / GALÁPAGOS — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-20-810. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.