Office briefing
CALUMA / BOLÍVAR — Mayor
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Ecuador · CALUMA / BOLÍVAR / BOLÍVAR · municipal · MayorEC-M-2-760
Read the complete original research briefing
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- CALUMA / BOLÍVAR / BOLÍVAR
- Next election
- 2026-11-29
- Linked upcoming event
- next-786e33d066eba3d86f466bde
- Registry qualification
- Qualified in source register
2. How certain is that date?
2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023-02-05
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK45.1%
- MINGA SUMA POR CALUMA33.7%
- RENOVACION CALUMA9.9%
- PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR8.7%
- PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO1.2%
- TODOS POR CALUMA1.0%
- PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA0.5%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · JHERSON NARVAEZ | 7ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 5,328 | 45.1% | 1 | Recorded |
| MINGA SUMA POR CALUMA · LUIS MONAR VILLEGAS | 1111ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 3,980 | 33.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| RENOVACION CALUMA · LEON GAROFALO CHAVEZ | 1281ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 1,172 | 9.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR · FABRICIO YANZA | 231ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 1,024 | 8.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO · JORGE VELASCO | 34ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 137 | 1.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| TODOS POR CALUMA · DOLORES GUILLEN | 1151ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 118 | 1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · NERY MENDOZA HERNANDEZ | 117ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 63 | 0.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2019-03-24
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- ALIANZA POR LA INTEGRACIÓN BOLIVARENSE36.9%
- FUERZA.EC25.5%
- TIEMPO DE CONSTRUIR15.4%
- IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA5.7%
- MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ4.9%
- MOVIMIENTO TODOS POR EL CAMBIO4.3%
- MOVIMIENTO LIBERTAD ES PUEBLO, LEP4.2%
- MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA1.9%
- MOVIMIENTO NACIONAL PODEMOS0.6%
- MOVIMIENTO CONCERTACION0.4%
- PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE0.2%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALIANZA POR LA INTEGRACIÓN BOLIVARENSE · ANGEL UFREDO SUAREZ GARCIA | 501ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 4,070 | 36.9% | 1 | Recorded |
| FUERZA.EC · RUPERTO NARVAEZ MENDOZA | 146ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 2,820 | 25.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| TIEMPO DE CONSTRUIR · HUGO ARIAS | 548ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,699 | 15.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · MAURO TOAPANTA | 152ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 634 | 5.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ · DANNY AVEROS | 198ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 542 | 4.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO TODOS POR EL CAMBIO · MIGUEL MALDONADO BRAVO | 230ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 472 | 4.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO LIBERTAD ES PUEBLO, LEP · ANGEL PACHALA | 235ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 462 | 4.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA · JUAN VELASTEGUI | 13ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 209 | 1.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO NACIONAL PODEMOS · POMERIO GAROFALO MENDOZA | 142ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 64 | 0.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CONCERTACION · MOISES CARRERA | 18ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 41 | 0.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE · CLAUDIA SANCHEZ SANCHEZ | 158ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 25 | 0.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2014-02-23
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- PARTIDO RENOVADOR INSTITUCIONAL ACCION NACIONAL38.7%
- ALIANZA INTEGRACION BOLIVARENSE24.4%
- MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK12.4%
- MOVIMIENTO SUMA11.1%
- MOVIMIENTO CREO8.8%
- PARTIDO AVANZA4.5%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PARTIDO RENOVADOR INSTITUCIONAL ACCION NACIONAL · PACHALA LLUMIGUANO SEGUNDO ANGEL | 9ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 3,761 | 38.7% | 1 | Recorded |
| ALIANZA INTEGRACION BOLIVARENSE · BAÑOS ROJAS MESIAS LORENZO | 2004ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 2,377 | 24.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · GAROFALO CHAVEZ LEON ARTURO | 5ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 1,204 | 12.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO SUMA · NARANJO BORJA MAGNO GERMAN | 13ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 1,083 | 11.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CREO · MENDOZA HERNANDEZ NERY DE LA CARIDAD | 8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 860 | 8.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO AVANZA · FIERRO OLALLA RUTH MARIA | 6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 440 | 4.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI41.690–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=11.402469971240059, oldest_gap=14.231362467866326, previous_gap=11.324515310744701
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility45.07percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,0,45.06851632549484,0,0,0,54.93148367450516],[0,0,0,0,0,1.893458959956514,98.1065410400435],[0,4.5244215938303345,12.380462724935732,8.84318766066838,11.136246786632391,0,63.11568123393317]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility36.88percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,0,45.06851632549484,0,0,0,54.93148367450516],[0,0,0,0,0,1.893458959956514,98.1065410400435],[0,4.5244215938303345,12.380462724935732,8.84318766066838,11.136246786632391,0,63.11568123393317]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility40.98percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,0,45.06851632549484,0,0,0,54.93148367450516],[0,0,0,0,0,1.893458959956514,98.1065410400435],[0,4.5244215938303345,12.380462724935732,8.84318766066838,11.136246786632391,0,63.11568123393317]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
No officeholder observation supplied.
Electoral register observations
Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.
| As of | Electors | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | 15,241 | Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.{
"call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"cne_canton": 760,
"cne_parish": null,
"cne_province": 2,
"election_date": "2026-11-29",
"electors_august": 15241,
"jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-2-760",
"name": "CALUMA / BOLÍVAR",
"office": "Mayor",
"precinct_rows": [
283,
285,
300,
301,
302,
350
],
"record_type": "official_electoral_register",
"register_pdf_page": 7,
"register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"snapshot": "2026-08-11",
"source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
} |
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.
Sources
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/ · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2023.zip · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2023.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2014.sav · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2014.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE 2027 precinct and electorate distribution, cutoff 11 August 2026 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE resolution PLE-CNE-1-31-7-2026: ordinary election call for 29 November 2026 · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “CALUMA / BOLÍVAR — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-2-760. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.