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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

ECHEANDÍA / BOLÍVAR — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · ECHEANDÍA / BOLÍVAR / BOLÍVAR · municipal · MayorEC-M-2-185

Read the complete original research briefing

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
ECHEANDÍA / BOLÍVAR / BOLÍVAR
Next election
2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event
next-e31f86cc3661afba81e88716
Registry qualification
Qualified in source register

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • ALIANZA JUNTOS PODEMOS HACER MAS47.7%
  • MOVIMIENTO RENOVACIÓN TOTAL, RETO17.5%
  • PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO15.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA SOCIAL MAS8.9%
  • ALIANZA ENCONTREMONOS POR BOLIVAR6.0%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK3.3%
  • CONSTRUYENDO ESPERANZA EN BOLÍVAR0.9%
Results for event-dc0f4d42ed3627955cbc5007
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
ALIANZA JUNTOS PODEMOS HACER MAS · MARCO VISCARRA VEGA1117ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20235,56547.7%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO RENOVACIÓN TOTAL, RETO · CARLOS BONILLA226ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20232,04317.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO · ANGEL ROCHINA34ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231,84015.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA SOCIAL MAS · EDWARD BALAREZO173ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231,0408.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA ENCONTREMONOS POR BOLIVAR · MARCO RUEDA1084ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20236956%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · AIDE DEL ROCIO DORADO7ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20233843.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
CONSTRUYENDO ESPERANZA EN BOLÍVAR · NAYELI CORDOVA1141ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231030.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • TIEMPO DE CONSTRUIR44.6%
  • MOVIMIENTO ECUATORIANO UNIDO28.7%
  • ALIANZA POR LA INTEGRACIÓN BOLIVARENSE13.2%
  • MOVIMIENTO LIBERTAD ES PUEBLO, LEP6.5%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA5.1%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE INTEGRACION NUEVA GENTE EN ACCION MINGA0.7%
  • MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ0.5%
  • UNIDAD POPULAR0.4%
  • CENTRO DEMOCRATICO0.3%
Results for event-b904f791764663b293f8fbc5
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
TIEMPO DE CONSTRUIR · PATRICIO ESCUDERO548ecuador/Sed7b513864/20194,83244.6%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ECUATORIANO UNIDO · ANGEL ROCHINA219ecuador/Sed7b513864/20193,11228.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA POR LA INTEGRACIÓN BOLIVARENSE · FERNANDO CHANGO501ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,43613.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO LIBERTAD ES PUEBLO, LEP · MARCOS GUAMAN CARVAJAL235ecuador/Sed7b513864/20197016.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA · PEDRO SISA13ecuador/Sed7b513864/20195485.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE INTEGRACION NUEVA GENTE EN ACCION MINGA · HUGO HIDALGO173ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019800.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ · WILLIAM VISCARRA198ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019490.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
UNIDAD POPULAR · ELVIO HIDALGO VISCARRA143ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019480.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
CENTRO DEMOCRATICO · CARLOS COLOMA145ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019370.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • ALIANZA INTEGRACION BOLIVARENSE43.4%
  • PARTIDO AVANZA32.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO SUMA7.6%
  • MOVIMIENTO CREO7.3%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO4.4%
  • PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO3.0%
  • PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO1.9%
Results for event-1e484b420c204d2998f8f18b
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
ALIANZA INTEGRACION BOLIVARENSE · ESCUDERO SANCHEZ FRANKLIN PATRICIO2004ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20143,96343.4%1Recorded
PARTIDO AVANZA · VISCARRA VEGA CARLOS MARCO6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20142,95732.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO SUMA · GUERRERO VILLACRES HENRRY MARCELO13ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20146907.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO · ESCUDERO SANTAMARIA LUIS ENRIQUE8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20146687.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO · VASCONEZ SOTOMAYOR INES ARACELI11ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20144044.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO · CARVAJAL MONAR FRANCO SALVADOR2ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20142743%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO · COLOMA ESCUDERO EITHEL HOTERBALDO1ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141781.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

0 (recorded zero)0–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=30.179948586118254, oldest_gap=11.013794613531864, previous_gap=15.86276860647422

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

5.05percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,0,3.290488431876607,0,0,0,96.70951156812339],[0,0,0,0,0,5.0539518583417875,94.9460481416582],[4.423034814977009,32.37354937595796,0,7.313334793080797,7.554193124589446,0,48.33588789139479]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

51.66percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,0,3.290488431876607,0,0,0,96.70951156812339],[0,0,0,0,0,5.0539518583417875,94.9460481416582],[4.423034814977009,32.37354937595796,0,7.313334793080797,7.554193124589446,0,48.33588789139479]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

28.36percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,0,3.290488431876607,0,0,0,96.70951156812339],[0,0,0,0,0,5.0539518583417875,94.9460481416582],[4.423034814977009,32.37354937595796,0,7.313334793080797,7.554193124589446,0,48.33588789139479]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

Register observations
As ofElectorsNotes
2026-08-1115,205
Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.
{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 185,
  "cne_parish": null,
  "cne_province": 2,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electors_august": 15205,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-2-185",
  "name": "ECHEANDÍA / BOLÍVAR",
  "office": "Mayor",
  "precinct_rows": [
    297,
    298,
    299,
    312
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 7,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “ECHEANDÍA / BOLÍVAR — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-2-185. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.