Office briefing
SAN MIGUEL / BOLÍVAR — Mayor
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Ecuador · SAN MIGUEL / BOLÍVAR / BOLÍVAR · municipal · MayorEC-M-2-175
Read the complete original research briefing
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- SAN MIGUEL / BOLÍVAR / BOLÍVAR
- Next election
- 2026-11-29
- Linked upcoming event
- next-bece49f43c7246cb9e4adc1c
- Registry qualification
- Qualified in source register
2. How certain is that date?
2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023-02-05
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- ALIANZA JUNTOS POR BOLIVAR42.6%
- FRENTE DE UNIDAD EN DEMOCRACIA SI35.6%
- ALIANZA ENCONTREMONOS POR BOLIVAR6.0%
- JUSTICIA SOCIAL POR SAN MIGUEL5.2%
- RENOVACION AGRARIOS SAN MIGUEL4.6%
- PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO3.1%
- MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA3.0%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALIANZA JUNTOS POR BOLIVAR · VINICIO COLOMA | 1125ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 8,280 | 42.6% | 1 | Recorded |
| FRENTE DE UNIDAD EN DEMOCRACIA SI · MARCELO DE MORA | 1322ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 6,920 | 35.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| ALIANZA ENCONTREMONOS POR BOLIVAR · RAFAEL BARZALLO | 1084ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 1,164 | 6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| JUSTICIA SOCIAL POR SAN MIGUEL · STALIN CARRASCO VALAREZO | 1183ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 1,019 | 5.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| RENOVACION AGRARIOS SAN MIGUEL · SIMON YANEZ | 1391ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 892 | 4.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO · TAMARA GAIBOR | 34ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 599 | 3.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA · RILO ABRIL | 207ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 581 | 3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2019-03-24
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- ALIANZA POR LA INTEGRACIÓN BOLIVARENSE36.0%
- CENTRO DEMOCRATICO23.1%
- MOVIMIENTO AGRARIO DE INTEGRACIÓN SAN MIGUEL, MAIS19.2%
- TIEMPO DE CONSTRUIR14.5%
- MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ4.4%
- MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA2.8%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALIANZA POR LA INTEGRACIÓN BOLIVARENSE · STALIN CARRASCO | 501ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 6,808 | 36% | 1 | Recorded |
| CENTRO DEMOCRATICO · RAFAEL BARZALLO | 145ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 4,366 | 23.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO AGRARIO DE INTEGRACIÓN SAN MIGUEL, MAIS · LEONIDAS SIMON YANEZ OLALLA | 38ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 3,636 | 19.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| TIEMPO DE CONSTRUIR · RAUL JACOME | 548ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 2,749 | 14.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ · CESAR AUGUSTO MONCAYO NARANJO | 198ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 829 | 4.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA · LIBERTY BALLADARES PAZMIÑO | 13ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 539 | 2.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2014-02-23
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- MOVIMIENTO AGRARIO DE INTEGRACIÓN SAN MIGUEL35.1%
- MOVIMIENTO SUMA29.2%
- ALIANZA INTEGRACION BOLIVARENSE17.9%
- MOVIMIENTO CREO17.7%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOVIMIENTO AGRARIO DE INTEGRACIÓN SAN MIGUEL · YANEZ OLALLA LEONIDAS SIMON | 2003ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 6,317 | 35.1% | 1 | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO SUMA · DE MORA MONCAYO LUIS MARCELO | 13ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 5,260 | 29.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| ALIANZA INTEGRACION BOLIVARENSE · FLORES SOLANO ANTONIO GUILLERMO | 2004ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 3,225 | 17.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CREO · CARRASCO VALAREZO HERBART STALIN | 8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 3,181 | 17.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI56.740–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=6.9904908763813935, oldest_gap=5.8777734527053305, previous_gap=12.902203201775244
pedersen volatility
Withheld volatilityUnknownpercentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,[0,0,0,0,0,2.847783589581022,97.15221641041897],[0,0,0,17.688928432408385,29.249847077795696,0,53.06122448979592]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility46.94percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,[0,0,0,0,0,2.847783589581022,97.15221641041897],[0,0,0,17.688928432408385,29.249847077795696,0,53.06122448979592]]
pedersen volatility
Withheld volatilityUnknownpercentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,[0,0,0,0,0,2.847783589581022,97.15221641041897],[0,0,0,17.688928432408385,29.249847077795696,0,53.06122448979592]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
No officeholder observation supplied.
Electoral register observations
Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.
| As of | Electors | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | 27,162 | Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.{
"call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"cne_canton": 175,
"cne_parish": null,
"cne_province": 2,
"election_date": "2026-11-29",
"electors_august": 27162,
"jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-2-175",
"name": "SAN MIGUEL / BOLÍVAR",
"office": "Mayor",
"precinct_rows": [
286,
287,
294,
315,
334,
335,
336,
337,
338,
339,
340,
349,
353,
360,
369
],
"record_type": "official_electoral_register",
"register_pdf_page": 7,
"register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"snapshot": "2026-08-11",
"source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
} |
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.
Sources
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/ · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2023.zip · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2023.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2014.sav · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2014.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE 2027 precinct and electorate distribution, cutoff 11 August 2026 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE resolution PLE-CNE-1-31-7-2026: ordinary election call for 29 November 2026 · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “SAN MIGUEL / BOLÍVAR — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-2-175. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.