Office briefing
CHIMBO / BOLÍVAR — Mayor
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Ecuador · CHIMBO / BOLÍVAR / BOLÍVAR · municipal · MayorEC-M-2-170
Read the complete original research briefing
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- CHIMBO / BOLÍVAR / BOLÍVAR
- Next election
- 2026-11-29
- Linked upcoming event
- next-8fd4d9510e5bdf1409923411
- Registry qualification
- Qualified in source register
2. How certain is that date?
2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023-02-05
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- MOVIMIENTO DE INTEGRACIÓN NUEVA GENTE EN ACCIÓN, MINGA27.3%
- ALIANZA JUNTOS POR BOLIVAR20.1%
- CHIMBO PIENSA EN GRANDE19.2%
- PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO10.9%
- MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK7.3%
- ALIANZA ENCONTREMONOS POR BOLIVAR6.4%
- CONSTRUYENDO ESPERANZA EN BOLÍVAR4.7%
- UNIDOS POR UN CAMBIO EN CHIMBO3.1%
- MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA SOCIAL MAS1.1%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOVIMIENTO DE INTEGRACIÓN NUEVA GENTE EN ACCIÓN, MINGA · JOSE LUIS ARTEAGA | 227ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 2,774 | 27.3% | 1 | Recorded |
| ALIANZA JUNTOS POR BOLIVAR · LUIS ALFREDO PRADO | 1125ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 2,046 | 20.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| CHIMBO PIENSA EN GRANDE · MANUEL ROBERTO SIERRA REMACHE | 1127ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 1,951 | 19.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO · MEDARDO REA DURANGO | 34ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 1,102 | 10.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · LUCIA GUADALUPE MIRANDA | 7ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 737 | 7.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| ALIANZA ENCONTREMONOS POR BOLIVAR · ALONSO PEÑA | 1084ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 646 | 6.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| CONSTRUYENDO ESPERANZA EN BOLÍVAR · NEICER VARGAS MENDOZA | 1141ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 475 | 4.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| UNIDOS POR UN CAMBIO EN CHIMBO · EDWIN CRUZ | 1476ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 315 | 3.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA SOCIAL MAS · ANITA GAROFALO | 173ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 109 | 1.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2019-03-24
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- NUEVA GENERACION PSP 3 Y MINGA 7729.3%
- TIEMPO DE CONSTRUIR27.3%
- CENTRO DEMOCRATICO16.0%
- ALIANZA POR LA INTEGRACIÓN BOLIVARENSE12.0%
- MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ9.4%
- MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA3.5%
- IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA1.6%
- PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE0.8%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NUEVA GENERACION PSP 3 Y MINGA 77 · LUIS ALFREDO PRADO VELASQUEZ | 550ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 2,833 | 29.3% | 1 | Recorded |
| TIEMPO DE CONSTRUIR · HUGO LARA | 548ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 2,634 | 27.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| CENTRO DEMOCRATICO · ROBERTO SIERRA | 145ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,550 | 16% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| ALIANZA POR LA INTEGRACIÓN BOLIVARENSE · CESAR VELOZ CEVALLOS | 501ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,163 | 12% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ · PATRICIO SILVA | 198ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 913 | 9.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA · BYRON BOSQUEZ | 13ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 336 | 3.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · NIVARDO OCAÑA | 152ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 156 | 1.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE · GRACIELA PEPE GUILCAPI | 158ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 77 | 0.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2014-02-23
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- PARTIDO AVANZA47.2%
- MOVIMIENTO SUMA24.4%
- ALIANZA INTEGRACION BOLIVARENSE19.3%
- MOVIMIENTO CREO9.0%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PARTIDO AVANZA · VELOZ CEVALLOS CESAR AUGUSTO | 6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 4,088 | 47.2% | 1 | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO SUMA · LARA OLALLA VICTOR HUGO | 13ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 2,112 | 24.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| ALIANZA INTEGRACION BOLIVARENSE · GARCIA ARMIJO GENARO RIGOBERTO | 2004ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 1,673 | 19.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CREO · HIDALGO MULLO MIGUEL ANGEL | 8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 782 | 9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI63.990–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=7.168882323978334, oldest_gap=22.83073367995378, previous_gap=2.0596149865452276
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility7.26percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,0,7.257508616445101,0,0,0,92.74249138355488],[0,0,0,0,0,3.4775408818050093,96.52245911819499],[0,47.23281340265742,0,9.035239745811669,24.40207972270364,0,19.329867128827267]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility80.67percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,0,7.257508616445101,0,0,0,92.74249138355488],[0,0,0,0,0,3.4775408818050093,96.52245911819499],[0,47.23281340265742,0,9.035239745811669,24.40207972270364,0,19.329867128827267]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility43.96percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,0,7.257508616445101,0,0,0,92.74249138355488],[0,0,0,0,0,3.4775408818050093,96.52245911819499],[0,47.23281340265742,0,9.035239745811669,24.40207972270364,0,19.329867128827267]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
No officeholder observation supplied.
Electoral register observations
Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.
| As of | Electors | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | 13,652 | Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.{
"call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"cne_canton": 170,
"cne_parish": null,
"cne_province": 2,
"election_date": "2026-11-29",
"electors_august": 13652,
"jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-2-170",
"name": "CHIMBO / BOLÍVAR",
"office": "Mayor",
"precinct_rows": [
328,
329,
330,
331,
332,
333,
343,
354
],
"record_type": "official_electoral_register",
"register_pdf_page": 7,
"register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"snapshot": "2026-08-11",
"source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
} |
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.
Sources
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/ · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2023.zip · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2023.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2014.sav · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2014.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE 2027 precinct and electorate distribution, cutoff 11 August 2026 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE resolution PLE-CNE-1-31-7-2026: ordinary election call for 29 November 2026 · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “CHIMBO / BOLÍVAR — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-2-170. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.