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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

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Office briefing

GUARANDA / BOLÍVAR — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · GUARANDA / BOLÍVAR / BOLÍVAR · municipal · MayorEC-M-2-165

Read the complete original research briefing

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
GUARANDA / BOLÍVAR / BOLÍVAR
Next election
2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event
next-4a6434140a51ba0e65e0b5f3
Registry qualification
Qualified in source register

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA SOCIAL MAS46.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK28.4%
  • PARTIDO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MÁS ACCIÓN, SUMA13.2%
  • ALIANZA ENCONTREMONOS POR BOLIVAR4.5%
  • MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA2.9%
  • CONSTRUYENDO ESPERANZA EN BOLÍVAR2.2%
  • PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO1.3%
  • PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA1.0%
Results for event-1a35ddbaffaa8b67ade4b6af
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA SOCIAL MAS · INTI YUMBAY173ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202327,30646.4%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · MEDARDO CHIMBOLEMA7ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202316,69628.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MÁS ACCIÓN, SUMA · GUSTAVO JARAMILLO42ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20237,74913.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA ENCONTREMONOS POR BOLIVAR · EDISON MAYORGA1084ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20232,6774.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA · MARIA JOSE MAUREIRA POVEDA207ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231,7152.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
CONSTRUYENDO ESPERANZA EN BOLÍVAR · WASHINGTON GUAMAN1141ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231,2992.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO · ADRIANA OCAMPO34ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20237911.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · MARCO PATRICIO ACUÑA SALTOS117ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20236061%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK32.5%
  • TIEMPO DE CONSTRUIR19.0%
  • ALIANZA POR LA INTEGRACIÓN BOLIVARENSE18.9%
  • MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ11.2%
  • CENTRO DEMOCRATICO8.7%
  • IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA5.1%
  • UNIDOS POR GUARANDA PSP 3 EC UNIDO 42.0%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE INTEGRACION NUEVA GENTE EN ACCION MINGA0.9%
  • UNION ECUATORIANA0.7%
  • MOVIMIENTO CONCERTACION0.5%
  • PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE0.4%
Results for event-7dcb7648e1cf4363804d570c
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · MEDARDO CHIMBOLEMA12ecuador/Sed7b513864/201917,64732.5%1Recorded
TIEMPO DE CONSTRUIR · JORGE ABEDRABBO548ecuador/Sed7b513864/201910,33019%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA POR LA INTEGRACIÓN BOLIVARENSE · INTI YUMBAY TARIS501ecuador/Sed7b513864/201910,27518.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ · GUSTAVO JARAMILLO198ecuador/Sed7b513864/20196,10011.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
CENTRO DEMOCRATICO · RAMSSES TORRES145ecuador/Sed7b513864/20194,7528.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · MAXIMILIANO GALLMEIER152ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192,7835.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
UNIDOS POR GUARANDA PSP 3 EC UNIDO 4 · WASHINGTON GUAMAN547ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,0642%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE INTEGRACION NUEVA GENTE EN ACCION MINGA · PATRICIO CAMACHO173ecuador/Sed7b513864/20195130.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
UNION ECUATORIANA · RAMIRO SALTOS ARELLANO51ecuador/Sed7b513864/20193720.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CONCERTACION · GALO VASCONEZ DEL SALTO18ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192960.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE · MARCELO BASANTES MOYANO158ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192050.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • MOVIMIENTO SUMA39.0%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK26.8%
  • ALIANZA INTEGRACION BOLIVARENSE26.2%
  • MOVIMIENTO CREO8.0%
Results for event-e14a5e706f5fb78aed33f993
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO SUMA · TORRES ESPINOSA WASHINGTON RAMSSES13ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201418,63639%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · CHIMBOLEMA CHIMBOLEMA LUIS MEDARDO5ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201412,84126.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA INTEGRACION BOLIVARENSE · JARAMILLO VILLAFUERTE GUILLERMO GUSTAVO2004ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201412,55326.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO · COLES TIBANLOMBO CARLOS ALBERTO8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20143,8088%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

19.650–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=18.03225751627322, oldest_gap=12.11380074417827, previous_gap=13.465962419714003

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

4.1percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,0,28.375737181121366,0,0,0,71.62426281887862],[0,0,32.476949408322135,0,0,0,67.52305059167784],[0,0,26.842677369455245,7.960199004975125,38.956478113633516,0,26.24064551193612]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

46.92percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,0,28.375737181121366,0,0,0,71.62426281887862],[0,0,32.476949408322135,0,0,0,67.52305059167784],[0,0,26.842677369455245,7.960199004975125,38.956478113633516,0,26.24064551193612]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

25.51percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,0,28.375737181121366,0,0,0,71.62426281887862],[0,0,32.476949408322135,0,0,0,67.52305059167784],[0,0,26.842677369455245,7.960199004975125,38.956478113633516,0,26.24064551193612]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

Register observations
As ofElectorsNotes
2026-08-1183,633
Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.
{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 165,
  "cne_parish": null,
  "cne_province": 2,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electors_august": 83633,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-2-165",
  "name": "GUARANDA / BOLÍVAR",
  "office": "Mayor",
  "precinct_rows": [
    281,
    288,
    289,
    291,
    306,
    307,
    308,
    309,
    313,
    316,
    317,
    318,
    319,
    320,
    321,
    322,
    323,
    324,
    325,
    326,
    327,
    341,
    342,
    344,
    346,
    351,
    352,
    355,
    356,
    357,
    358,
    359,
    361,
    362,
    363,
    364,
    365,
    366
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 7,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “GUARANDA / BOLÍVAR — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-2-165. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.