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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

EL PANGUI / ZAMORA CHINCHIPE — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · EL PANGUI / ZAMORA CHINCHIPE / ZAMORA CHINCHIPE · municipal · MayorEC-M-19-775

Read the complete original research briefing

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
EL PANGUI / ZAMORA CHINCHIPE / ZAMORA CHINCHIPE
Next election
2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event
next-215bba775bda0fd75eb945c1
Registry qualification
Qualified in source register

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • MOVIMIENTO RENOVACIÓN TOTAL, RETO44.0%
  • PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA27.3%
  • COMPROMISO Y PROGRESO26.9%
  • FRENTE DE UNIDAD POR LA EQUIDAD Y LA RENOVACIÓN1.9%
Results for event-0308b2fcfac5bb41f40e5ffc
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO RENOVACIÓN TOTAL, RETO · JAIRO HERRERA226ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20233,34944%1Recorded
PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · MILTON GONZALEZ117ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20232,07927.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
COMPROMISO Y PROGRESO · LUIS PORTILLA ANDRADE1081ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20232,04626.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
FRENTE DE UNIDAD POR LA EQUIDAD Y LA RENOVACIÓN · MARIANA FAJARDO1468ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231441.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK42.1%
  • ALIANZA JUNTOS PODEMOS EL PANGUI36.5%
  • IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA16.3%
  • ALIANZA ALTERNATIVA PARA EL CAMBIO4.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL0.2%
Results for event-0881bbe69f72f6c4411a7b07
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · CARLOS PUNIN12ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192,88242.1%1Recorded
ALIANZA JUNTOS PODEMOS EL PANGUI · JAIRO HERRERA GONZALEZ622ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192,49736.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · MILTON GONZALEZ TANDAZO152ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,11816.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA ALTERNATIVA PARA EL CAMBIO · GIOVANNY MURILLO613ecuador/Sed7b513864/20193254.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL · JOSE NICANOR LOJA SANCHEZ170ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019160.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • ALIANZA POR LA REIVINDICACIÓN DE ZAMORA CHINCHIPE35.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK33.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO ACCIÓN Y SERVICIO17.3%
  • PARTIDO AVANZA14.1%
Results for event-74186be0d2978adb28b4cbb3
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
ALIANZA POR LA REIVINDICACIÓN DE ZAMORA CHINCHIPE · HERRERA GONZALEZ JAIRO BLADIMIR19009ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141,90335.3%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · PUNIN TELLO CARLOS MESIAS5ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141,79633.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ACCIÓN Y SERVICIO · PORTILLA ANDRADE LUIS MAURO19001ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201493517.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO AVANZA · AVILA JIMENEZ VICENTE MARCOS6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201476214.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

40.550–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=16.671042268311894, oldest_gap=1.9829503335804333, previous_gap=5.6303012576776865

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,[0,0,42.14682655747295,0,0,0,57.85317344252706],[0,14.121571534469977,33.283914010378055,0,0,0,52.594514455151966]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

14.12percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,[0,0,42.14682655747295,0,0,0,57.85317344252706],[0,14.121571534469977,33.283914010378055,0,0,0,52.594514455151966]]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,[0,0,42.14682655747295,0,0,0,57.85317344252706],[0,14.121571534469977,33.283914010378055,0,0,0,52.594514455151966]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

Register observations
As ofElectorsNotes
2026-08-1110,761
Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.
{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 775,
  "cne_parish": null,
  "cne_province": 19,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electors_august": 10761,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-19-775",
  "name": "EL PANGUI / ZAMORA CHINCHIPE",
  "office": "Mayor",
  "precinct_rows": [
    3864,
    3865,
    3866,
    3867,
    3868,
    3869,
    3870,
    3871,
    3872,
    3873,
    3874,
    3875,
    3876
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 7,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “EL PANGUI / ZAMORA CHINCHIPE — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-19-775. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.