Office briefing
BAÑOS / TUNGURAHUA — Mayor
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Ecuador · BAÑOS / TUNGURAHUA / TUNGURAHUA · municipal · MayorEC-M-18-150
Read the complete original research briefing
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- BAÑOS / TUNGURAHUA / TUNGURAHUA
- Next election
- 2026-11-29
- Linked upcoming event
- next-3d4b7a82cccefb70edeeca22
- Registry qualification
- Qualified in source register
2. How certain is that date?
2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023-02-05
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- INTEGRACION CIVICA TUNGURAHUA29.9%
- PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA28.0%
- MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO SOLIDARIAMENTE24.1%
- MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA6.5%
- PARTIDO AVANZA4.2%
- OPORTUNIDADES3.8%
- SOMOS AGUA1.4%
- CLICC CONEXION CIUDADANA BAÑOS1.3%
- MOVIMIENTO RENOVACIÓN TOTAL, RETO0.4%
- PSC-TC, LISTA 6-610.3%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTEGRACION CIVICA TUNGURAHUA · MARLON GUEVARA | 1416ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 4,545 | 29.9% | 1 | Recorded |
| PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · SANTIAGO GAMBOA | 117ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 4,262 | 28% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO SOLIDARIAMENTE · LUIS BARRIONUEVO | 160ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 3,661 | 24.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA · SANTIAGO RIVERA PAZMIÑO | 207ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 991 | 6.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO AVANZA · EDISON BASTIDAS | 101ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 645 | 4.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| OPORTUNIDADES · PAULO SILVA GUEVARA | 1175ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 585 | 3.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| SOMOS AGUA · PEDRO GUEVARA | 1429ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 210 | 1.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| CLICC CONEXION CIUDADANA BAÑOS · DANIEL VILLACRESES | 1257ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 202 | 1.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO RENOVACIÓN TOTAL, RETO · JENNIFER ESTEFANIA SILVA OÑATE | 226ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 65 | 0.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PSC-TC, LISTA 6-61 · ROSA PEREZ | 1106ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 48 | 0.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2019-03-24
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- PARTIDO POLÍTICO AVANZA37.8%
- MOVIMIENTO TU, TUNGURAHUA UNIDO28.4%
- BAÑOS UNIDO24.7%
- CREO POR AMBATO Y TUNGURAHUA5.3%
- MOVIMIENTO ACCIÓN SOCIAL2.7%
- PSC-TIEMPO DE CAMBIO1.0%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PARTIDO POLÍTICO AVANZA · LUIS SILVA LUNA | 25ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 5,731 | 37.8% | 1 | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO TU, TUNGURAHUA UNIDO · LUIS BARRIONUEVO | 253ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 4,310 | 28.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| BAÑOS UNIDO · MARLON FABRICIO GUEVARA SILVA | 601ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 3,744 | 24.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| CREO POR AMBATO Y TUNGURAHUA · VANESSA BARROS | 603ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 808 | 5.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO ACCIÓN SOCIAL · CARLOS CASTRO | 88ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 416 | 2.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PSC-TIEMPO DE CAMBIO · LUIS CORDOVA | 599ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 146 | 1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2014-02-23
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- PARTIDO AVANZA30.5%
- MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS21.9%
- PSC-TIEMPO DE CAMBIO19.6%
- PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO10.3%
- PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO9.7%
- MOVIMIENTO DE ACCIÓN SOCIAL5.9%
- 23-62-15 COMANDO CIUDADANO JUAN MONTALVO2.1%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PARTIDO AVANZA · GUEVARA SILVA MARLON FABRICIO | 6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 4,163 | 30.5% | 1 | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS · BARRIONUEVO CARRILLO MARCELO FAVIAN | 3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 2,990 | 21.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PSC-TIEMPO DE CAMBIO · ACOSTA GALLEGOS FAUSTO EDUARDO | 18006ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 2,668 | 19.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO · PEREZ IGLESIAS LUIS GONZALO | 1ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 1,405 | 10.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO · GAMBOA ROSA OTILIA | 10ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 1,324 | 9.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DE ACCIÓN SOCIAL · CASTRO CARRASCO CARLOS MARCELO | 18004ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 805 | 5.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| 23-62-15 COMANDO CIUDADANO JUAN MONTALVO · BERMEO CAICEDO HERNAN WILFRIDO | 18007ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 291 | 2.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI76.060–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=1.8601288287103976, oldest_gap=8.59592554594753, previous_gap=9.37644341801386
pedersen volatility
Withheld volatilityUnknownpercentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,4.2395162350466675,0,0,0,0,95.76048376495332],null,[0,30.50710831012751,0,0,0,21.91118276417998,47.58170892569251]]
pedersen volatility
Withheld volatilityUnknownpercentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,4.2395162350466675,0,0,0,0,95.76048376495332],null,[0,30.50710831012751,0,0,0,21.91118276417998,47.58170892569251]]
pedersen volatility
Withheld volatilityUnknownpercentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,4.2395162350466675,0,0,0,0,95.76048376495332],null,[0,30.50710831012751,0,0,0,21.91118276417998,47.58170892569251]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
No officeholder observation supplied.
Electoral register observations
Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.
| As of | Electors | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | 19,559 | Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.{
"call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"cne_canton": 150,
"cne_parish": null,
"cne_province": 18,
"election_date": "2026-11-29",
"electors_august": 19559,
"jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-18-150",
"name": "BAÑOS / TUNGURAHUA",
"office": "Mayor",
"precinct_rows": [
3677,
3678,
3684,
3830,
3831,
3832,
3833,
3834,
3835
],
"record_type": "official_electoral_register",
"register_pdf_page": 7,
"register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"snapshot": "2026-08-11",
"source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
} |
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.
Sources
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/ · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2023.zip · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2023.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2014.sav · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2014.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE 2027 precinct and electorate distribution, cutoff 11 August 2026 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE resolution PLE-CNE-1-31-7-2026: ordinary election call for 29 November 2026 · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “BAÑOS / TUNGURAHUA — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-18-150. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.