Skip to observatory content

Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

PÍLLARO / TUNGURAHUA — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · PÍLLARO / TUNGURAHUA / TUNGURAHUA · municipal · MayorEC-M-18-145

Read the complete original research briefing

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
PÍLLARO / TUNGURAHUA / TUNGURAHUA
Next election
2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event
next-fe4bcb68910b82081a18234c
Registry qualification
Qualified in source register

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • MOVIMIENTO CÍVICO POR AMBATO Y TUNGURAHUA26.3%
  • PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA18.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO SOLIDARIAMENTE13.2%
  • PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR12.1%
  • MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA10.0%
  • MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRÁTICO6.7%
  • MOVIMIENTO FUERZA PILLAREÑO4.3%
  • OPORTUNIDADES4.1%
  • PSC-TC, LISTA 6-612.2%
  • PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO1.6%
  • PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO0.6%
  • PARTIDO AVANZA0.5%
Results for event-927efb161a0cd17beb90d234
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO CÍVICO POR AMBATO Y TUNGURAHUA · ISRAEL CHICAIZA104ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20237,47026.3%1Recorded
PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · RAFAEL FLORES NARANJO117ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20235,24218.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO SOLIDARIAMENTE · JORGE LUIS LARA160ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20233,73913.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR · NESTOR MARCELO BONILLA IBARRA231ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20233,45112.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA · CARLOS DE JESUS CRIOLLO CHASI207ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20232,83110%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRÁTICO · ANGELA FONSECA124ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231,9026.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO FUERZA PILLAREÑO · FRANCISCO YANCHATIPAN269ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231,2164.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
OPORTUNIDADES · LUIS OSWALDO JIMENEZ ROMERO1175ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231,1714.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PSC-TC, LISTA 6-61 · ELSA GUACHI1106ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20236182.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO · CARLOS ISAU MORETA MUZO39ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20234431.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO · ALVARO MOYA34ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231830.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO AVANZA · ELISA GUERRA101ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231560.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • MOVIMIENTO FUERZA PILLAREÑO20.8%
  • MAS PROYECTO CIUDADANO16.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO SOLIDARIAMENTE12.1%
  • MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA10.5%
  • CREO POR AMBATO Y TUNGURAHUA8.7%
  • MOVIMIENTO TU, TUNGURAHUA UNIDO8.2%
  • IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA8.0%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK6.4%
  • PSC-TIEMPO DE CAMBIO3.1%
  • PARTIDO POLÍTICO AVANZA3.1%
  • UNIDOS PODEMOS1.3%
  • PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO1.2%
Results for event-0422a9242e3202ba2885f245
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO FUERZA PILLAREÑO · FRANCISCO ELIAS YANCHATIPAN221ecuador/Sed7b513864/20195,87520.8%1Recorded
MAS PROYECTO CIUDADANO · RAFAEL EDMUNDO FLORES NARANJO561ecuador/Sed7b513864/20194,64316.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO SOLIDARIAMENTE · JORGE LUIS LARA188ecuador/Sed7b513864/20193,42912.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA · JAIME PATRICIO SARABIA37ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192,97610.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
CREO POR AMBATO Y TUNGURAHUA · TRAJANO VILLAFUERTE603ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192,4658.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO TU, TUNGURAHUA UNIDO · DARWIN HARO SANCHEZ253ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192,3038.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · DAVID ISAIAS CHICAIZA TOAPANTA152ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192,2718%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · OLIVO SARABIA12ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,8206.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PSC-TIEMPO DE CAMBIO · PATRICIO HURTADO599ecuador/Sed7b513864/20198773.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO POLÍTICO AVANZA · MARCELO JEREZ25ecuador/Sed7b513864/20198713.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
UNIDOS PODEMOS · ENRIQUE GUACHI598ecuador/Sed7b513864/20193771.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO · ENRIQUE TOSCANO MOYA3ecuador/Sed7b513864/20193401.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • 23-62-15 COMANDO CIUDADANO JUAN MONTALVO35.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS29.1%
  • CREO-PSP-PRIAN15.3%
  • PARTIDO AVANZA13.6%
  • PSC-TIEMPO DE CAMBIO6.8%
Results for event-be508ca8502be881e6337771
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
23-62-15 COMANDO CIUDADANO JUAN MONTALVO · SARABIA RODRIGUEZ JAIME PATRICIO18007ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20149,23435.3%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS · FREIRE ALVAREZ LUIS ROBERTO3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20147,61029.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
CREO-PSP-PRIAN · VELASTEGUI HARO ROGELIO RODOLFO18005ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20144,00715.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO AVANZA · CORTES NARANJO EDWIN WILFRIDO6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20143,55013.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PSC-TIEMPO DE CAMBIO · ALVAREZ FERNANDEZ SILVIO LUIS18006ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141,7726.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

66.840–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=7.83899795932728, oldest_gap=6.204867611660877, previous_gap=4.361525117711615

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

16.98percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,0.5488705932024488,0,0,0,0,99.45112940679755],[0,0,6.443162105710341,0,10.535632102524161,0,83.02120579176551],[0,13.563596072288236,0,0,0,29.075765101440414,57.36063882627135]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

42.64percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,0.5488705932024488,0,0,0,0,99.45112940679755],[0,0,6.443162105710341,0,10.535632102524161,0,83.02120579176551],[0,13.563596072288236,0,0,0,29.075765101440414,57.36063882627135]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

29.81percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,0.5488705932024488,0,0,0,0,99.45112940679755],[0,0,6.443162105710341,0,10.535632102524161,0,83.02120579176551],[0,13.563596072288236,0,0,0,29.075765101440414,57.36063882627135]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

Register observations
As ofElectorsNotes
2026-08-1137,120
Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.
{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 145,
  "cne_parish": null,
  "cne_province": 18,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electors_august": 37120,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-18-145",
  "name": "PÍLLARO / TUNGURAHUA",
  "office": "Mayor",
  "precinct_rows": [
    3673,
    3674,
    3675,
    3676,
    3696,
    3697,
    3698,
    3699,
    3700,
    3701,
    3702,
    3703,
    3704,
    3705,
    3836
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 7,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “PÍLLARO / TUNGURAHUA — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-18-145. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.