Skip to observatory content

Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

PELILEO / TUNGURAHUA — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · PELILEO / TUNGURAHUA / TUNGURAHUA · municipal · MayorEC-M-18-140

Read the complete original research briefing

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
PELILEO / TUNGURAHUA / TUNGURAHUA
Next election
2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event
next-2a439570c8a158f5afac6057
Registry qualification
Qualified in source register

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • PARTIDO AVANZA34.7%
  • OPORTUNIDADES19.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO RENOVACIÓN TOTAL, RETO12.9%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK9.4%
  • INTEGRACION CIVICA TUNGURAHUA5.7%
  • PSC-TC, LISTA 6-615.5%
  • PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA4.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA4.5%
  • PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO3.2%
Results for event-de8fec2c99436e689445ad75
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO AVANZA · GABRIEL ZUÑIGA101ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202313,51634.7%1Recorded
OPORTUNIDADES · LEONARDO MAROTO1175ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20237,51819.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO RENOVACIÓN TOTAL, RETO · LUIS SILVA226ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20235,03212.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · ROBERTO MASAQUIZA7ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20233,6859.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
INTEGRACION CIVICA TUNGURAHUA · BETTY JEREZ1416ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20232,2315.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PSC-TC, LISTA 6-61 · CARLOS VELASQUEZ1106ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20232,1575.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · PEDRO LLERENA117ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231,8584.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA · OLGUER RUPHAK CABALLERO207ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231,7424.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO · CARLOS URQUIZO34ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231,2663.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA20.6%
  • MOVIMIENTO TU, TUNGURAHUA UNIDO13.9%
  • PSC-TIEMPO DE CAMBIO13.9%
  • CREO POR AMBATO Y TUNGURAHUA12.4%
  • FUERZA.EC10.5%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK8.9%
  • UNIDOS PODEMOS6.7%
  • FUERZA SOCIAL Y SOLIDARIA5.8%
  • PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO4.6%
  • PARTIDO POLÍTICO AVANZA2.8%
Results for event-d821296b78f28c6299e7705c
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA · LEONARDO MAROTO37ecuador/Sed7b513864/20197,78720.6%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO TU, TUNGURAHUA UNIDO · PEDRO LUIS LLERENA MORALES253ecuador/Sed7b513864/20195,27813.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PSC-TIEMPO DE CAMBIO · LUIS SILVA599ecuador/Sed7b513864/20195,24813.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
CREO POR AMBATO Y TUNGURAHUA · FREDDY LEGUIZAMO603ecuador/Sed7b513864/20194,68312.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
FUERZA.EC · GUILLERMO MASAQUIZA146ecuador/Sed7b513864/20193,98710.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · JOSE GABRIEL MORENO VILLARROEL12ecuador/Sed7b513864/20193,3728.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
UNIDOS PODEMOS · SEGUNDO PAREDES598ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192,5406.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
FUERZA SOCIAL Y SOLIDARIA · FERNANDO VARGAS602ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192,1995.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO · HERNAN GOMEZ3ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,7524.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO POLÍTICO AVANZA · CARLOS SALAN25ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,0452.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK64.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS11.9%
  • CREO-PSP-PRIAN6.4%
  • PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO6.1%
  • 23-62-15 COMANDO CIUDADANO JUAN MONTALVO5.4%
  • PARTIDO AVANZA3.9%
  • PSC-TIEMPO DE CAMBIO1.1%
  • PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO1.0%
Results for event-84d7d7e16ea579991b3f709f
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · CAIZABANDA JEREZ MANUEL5ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201422,28564.3%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS · MORALES MAZON ERNESTO GUSTAVO3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20144,13511.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
CREO-PSP-PRIAN · GAVILANES RODRIGUEZ HUGO HERNAN18005ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20142,2346.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO · GOMEZ VILLAGRAN HERNAN RODRIGO10ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20142,1006.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
23-62-15 COMANDO CIUDADANO JUAN MONTALVO · MAROTO CARRASCO HOLGER EDUARDO18007ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141,8585.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO AVANZA · CARDENAS MEDINA JORGE HUMBERTO6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141,3393.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PSC-TIEMPO DE CAMBIO · SALAN TINTIN JORGE18006ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20143851.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO · AGUIRRE ALTAMIRANO MARIANA ROSARIO1ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20143461%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

17.770–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=15.377515703114987, oldest_gap=52.33262210945159, previous_gap=6.621625188039376

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

35.2percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,34.65196769644918,9.447506729906422,0,0,0,55.9005255736444],[0,0,8.899210894407643,0,20.551054340080757,0,70.5497347655116],[0,3.8607923418487977,64.25523326221095,0,0,11.922611152759357,19.9613632431809]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

71.14percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,34.65196769644918,9.447506729906422,0,0,0,55.9005255736444],[0,0,8.899210894407643,0,20.551054340080757,0,70.5497347655116],[0,3.8607923418487977,64.25523326221095,0,0,11.922611152759357,19.9613632431809]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

53.17percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,34.65196769644918,9.447506729906422,0,0,0,55.9005255736444],[0,0,8.899210894407643,0,20.551054340080757,0,70.5497347655116],[0,3.8607923418487977,64.25523326221095,0,0,11.922611152759357,19.9613632431809]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

Register observations
As ofElectorsNotes
2026-08-1151,188
Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.
{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 140,
  "cne_parish": null,
  "cne_province": 18,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electors_august": 51188,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-18-140",
  "name": "PELILEO / TUNGURAHUA",
  "office": "Mayor",
  "precinct_rows": [
    3689,
    3690,
    3691,
    3692,
    3693,
    3694,
    3695,
    3723,
    3724,
    3811,
    3812,
    3813,
    3814,
    3815,
    3816,
    3817,
    3818,
    3819,
    3822
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 7,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “PELILEO / TUNGURAHUA — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-18-140. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.