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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

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Office briefing

AMBATO / TUNGURAHUA — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · AMBATO / TUNGURAHUA / TUNGURAHUA · municipal · MayorEC-M-18-135

Read the complete original research briefing

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
AMBATO / TUNGURAHUA / TUNGURAHUA
Next election
2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event
next-3a86ca466a994f7c0b44ed74
Registry qualification
Qualified in source register

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK32.2%
  • MOVIMIENTO RENOVACIÓN TOTAL, RETO29.8%
  • OPORTUNIDADES PARA TUNGURAHUA13.6%
  • MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO SOLIDARIAMENTE9.5%
  • SOMOS AGUA TUNGURAHUA6.1%
  • PSC-TC, LISTA 6-614.0%
  • PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA2.2%
  • PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO1.9%
  • CLICC CONEXIÓN CIUDADANA0.8%
Results for event-3e846a1e79648e5f685f3b40
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · DIANA CAIZA7ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202368,49832.2%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO RENOVACIÓN TOTAL, RETO · LUIS AMOROSO MORA226ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202363,38529.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
OPORTUNIDADES PARA TUNGURAHUA · SALOME MARIN1411ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202329,02213.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO SOLIDARIAMENTE · JAVIER ALTAMIRANO160ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202320,2559.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
SOMOS AGUA TUNGURAHUA · SEBASTIAN DAVALOS1358ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202313,0416.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PSC-TC, LISTA 6-61 · FELIPE BONILLA1106ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20238,4794%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · CARLOS ORTEGA SEVILLA117ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20234,6512.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO · XAVIER VILCACUNDO34ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20233,9771.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
CLICC CONEXIÓN CIUDADANA · MYRIAM AUZ1246ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231,7310.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • FUERZA SOCIAL Y SOLIDARIA44.1%
  • PSC-TIEMPO DE CAMBIO25.2%
  • PARTIDO POLÍTICO AVANZA16.9%
  • MOVIMIENTO TU, TUNGURAHUA UNIDO3.0%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK2.4%
  • MAS PROYECTO CIUDADANO2.1%
  • MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES1.6%
  • PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO1.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA1.3%
  • PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE0.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO LIBERTAD ES PUEBLO, LEP0.7%
  • FUERZA.EC0.5%
Results for event-fb904dc8986fee05ae69c90e
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
FUERZA SOCIAL Y SOLIDARIA · JAVIER ALTAMIRANO602ecuador/Sed7b513864/201995,43344.1%1Recorded
PSC-TIEMPO DE CAMBIO · LUIS FERNANDO TORRES TORRES599ecuador/Sed7b513864/201954,58625.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO POLÍTICO AVANZA · LUIS AMOROSO MORA25ecuador/Sed7b513864/201936,51716.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO TU, TUNGURAHUA UNIDO · LIBIO ROLANDO CORNEJO NUÑEZ253ecuador/Sed7b513864/20196,5533%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · JORGE RAZA12ecuador/Sed7b513864/20195,1232.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MAS PROYECTO CIUDADANO · PATRICIO ACOSTA JATIVA561ecuador/Sed7b513864/20194,5642.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES · JOSE LUIS QUISPE LOPEZ22ecuador/Sed7b513864/20193,4361.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO · GLADYS ZHIGUE3ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192,9921.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA · JUAN ERNESTO SEVILLA SANCHEZ37ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192,8581.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE · MARIO ROBAYO CARDENAS158ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,8050.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO LIBERTAD ES PUEBLO, LEP · DANIEL CHIPANTIZA235ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,5550.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
FUERZA.EC · JOHN MONAR MARTINEZ146ecuador/Sed7b513864/20199880.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • PARTIDO AVANZA29.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS27.2%
  • 23-62 COMANDO CIUDADANO JUAN MONTALVO26.3%
  • PSC-TIEMPO DE CAMBIO5.8%
  • CREO-PSP-PRIAN5.7%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK4.7%
  • PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO0.9%
Results for event-fe0be0fbfd3d0a90e3583e8e
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO AVANZA · AMOROSO MORA LUIS ALCIBIADES6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201458,23829.4%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS · SANCHEZ MIÑO ALEXIS REINALDO3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201453,86527.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
23-62 COMANDO CIUDADANO JUAN MONTALVO · ALTAMIRANO SANCHEZ JAVIER FRANCISCO18008ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201452,16526.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PSC-TIEMPO DE CAMBIO · LOPEZ COBO MARIA JOSE18006ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201411,4845.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
CREO-PSP-PRIAN · NICOLA GARCES GABRIEL GERARDO18005ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201411,3515.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · SOLIS PEREZ GLADYS MARIELA5ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20149,3134.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO · RODRIGUEZ BARROSO MANUEL EDUARDO1ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141,7190.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

63.380–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=2.400030041447806, oldest_gap=2.2070810306104427, previous_gap=18.874820941730974

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

29.79percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,0,32.15279831392374,0,0,0,67.84720168607626],[0,0,2.367265837992699,1.58772699967654,1.3206413751675061,0,94.72436578716325],[0,29.393090569561156,4.700330582683524,0,0,27.186009538950714,38.720569308804606]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

58.91percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,0,32.15279831392374,0,0,0,67.84720168607626],[0,0,2.367265837992699,1.58772699967654,1.3206413751675061,0,94.72436578716325],[0,29.393090569561156,4.700330582683524,0,0,27.186009538950714,38.720569308804606]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

44.35percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,0,32.15279831392374,0,0,0,67.84720168607626],[0,0,2.367265837992699,1.58772699967654,1.3206413751675061,0,94.72436578716325],[0,29.393090569561156,4.700330582683524,0,0,27.186009538950714,38.720569308804606]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

Register observations
As ofElectorsNotes
2026-08-11297,425
Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.
{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 135,
  "cne_parish": null,
  "cne_province": 18,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electors_august": 297425,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-18-135",
  "name": "AMBATO / TUNGURAHUA",
  "office": "Mayor",
  "precinct_rows": [
    3671,
    3672,
    3679,
    3680,
    3682,
    3683,
    3685,
    3686,
    3687,
    3688,
    3720,
    3721,
    3722,
    3729,
    3730,
    3731,
    3732,
    3733,
    3734,
    3735,
    3736,
    3737,
    3738,
    3739,
    3740,
    3741,
    3742,
    3743,
    3744,
    3745,
    3746,
    3747,
    3748,
    3749,
    3750,
    3751,
    3752,
    3753,
    3754,
    3755,
    3756,
    3757,
    3758,
    3759,
    3760,
    3761,
    3762,
    3763,
    3764,
    3765,
    3766,
    3767,
    3768,
    3769,
    3770,
    3771,
    3772,
    3773,
    3774,
    3775,
    3776,
    3777,
    3778,
    3779,
    3780,
    3781,
    3782,
    3783,
    3784,
    3785,
    3786,
    3787,
    3788,
    3789,
    3790,
    3791,
    3792,
    3793,
    3794,
    3795,
    3796,
    3797,
    3798,
    3799,
    3800,
    3801,
    3802,
    3803,
    3804,
    3805,
    3806,
    3807,
    3808,
    3809,
    3810,
    3820,
    3821,
    3823,
    3824,
    3826,
    3827,
    3828,
    3829,
    3837,
    3838,
    3839,
    3840
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 7,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “AMBATO / TUNGURAHUA — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-18-135. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.