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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

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Office briefing

C. J. AROSEMENA TOLA / NAPO — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · C. J. AROSEMENA TOLA / NAPO / NAPO · municipal · MayorEC-M-15-621

Read the complete original research briefing

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
C. J. AROSEMENA TOLA / NAPO / NAPO
Next election
2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event
next-8cee4a3aa3b6a5553bc585f9
Registry qualification
Qualified in source register

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • ALIANZA 3-8-21-6157.5%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK32.5%
  • MOVIMIENTO PUEBLO IGUALDAD DEMOCRACIA PID3.6%
  • DEMOCRACIA Y REVOLUCIÓN2.7%
  • MOVIMIENTO CONSTRUYE1.5%
  • SOMOS AGUA1.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ0.6%
  • PARTIDO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MÁS ACCIÓN, SUMA0.3%
Results for event-ed5048546b6324c552d450d4
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
ALIANZA 3-8-21-61 · LIGIA CAIZA1255ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231,84557.5%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · ISAIAS PASOCHOA7ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231,04332.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO PUEBLO IGUALDAD DEMOCRACIA PID · JADIRA NANCY SHIGUANGO222ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231143.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
DEMOCRACIA Y REVOLUCIÓN · GLORIA OÑA1295ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023862.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CONSTRUYE · LUPE ORELLANA GUANO18ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023471.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
SOMOS AGUA · SILVANA MONTOYA1034ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023421.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ · RUTH GARZON157ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023200.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MÁS ACCIÓN, SUMA · PRISCILA PASTUÑA42ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023100.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • ALIANZA ÑUKANCHI WAWQUI23.0%
  • ALIANZA CENTRO DEMOCRÁTICO - CREO19.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA16.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO ECUATORIANO UNIDO13.3%
  • PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO10.7%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK9.5%
  • PARTIDO POLÍTICO AVANZA7.5%
Results for event-00ee9a27fcec079d43a2608e
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
ALIANZA ÑUKANCHI WAWQUI · ISAIAS PASOCHOA GUALLI552ecuador/Sed7b513864/201965823%1Recorded
ALIANZA CENTRO DEMOCRÁTICO - CREO · LIGIA CAIZA OBANDO610ecuador/Sed7b513864/201955119.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA · VINTIMILLA HERMIDA ISMAEL37ecuador/Sed7b513864/201948116.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ECUATORIANO UNIDO · RODRIGO CAIZA219ecuador/Sed7b513864/201937913.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO · KLEBER GUADALUPE3ecuador/Sed7b513864/201930610.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · FREDY DARWIN MAMALLACTA CERDA12ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192719.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO POLÍTICO AVANZA · EDUARDO CUESTA25ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192147.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS26.4%
  • PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO19.6%
  • MOVIMIENTO SUMA17.7%
  • PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO"13.5%
  • P.S.C.LISTA 6 Y MAC 6311.6%
  • PARTIDO AVANZA6.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO NAPO VIVE2.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK2.0%
Results for event-cb206e3b89caa4e356a26b5c
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS · CAIZA CURIPALLO LUIS RODRIGO3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201456826.4%1Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO · VINTIMILLA HERMIDA ISMAEL10ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201442119.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO SUMA · JIMENEZ ROSILLO JOSE EDGAR13ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201438117.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO" · SALINAS DIAZ NANCY JUDITH4ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201428913.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
P.S.C.LISTA 6 Y MAC 63 · CANDO CANDO PEDRO LEONARDO15007ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201425011.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO AVANZA · CARRILLO CARRILLO JEFERSON ALCIVAR6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141366.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO NAPO VIVE · ORELLANA ORELLANA JUAN IGNACIO15002ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014602.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · GREFA MAMALLACTA MARCELO RAMIRO5ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014432%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

15.940–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=25.007795447458683, oldest_gap=6.843575418994412, previous_gap=3.74125874125874

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

23.05percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,0,32.52260679763018,0,0,0,67.47739320236983],[0,0,9.475524475524475,0,16.818181818181817,0,73.7062937062937],[0,6.33147113594041,2.001862197392924,0,17.737430167597765,26.443202979515828,47.486033519553075]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

33.69percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,0,32.52260679763018,0,0,0,67.47739320236983],[0,0,9.475524475524475,0,16.818181818181817,0,73.7062937062937],[0,6.33147113594041,2.001862197392924,0,17.737430167597765,26.443202979515828,47.486033519553075]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

28.37percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,0,32.52260679763018,0,0,0,67.47739320236983],[0,0,9.475524475524475,0,16.818181818181817,0,73.7062937062937],[0,6.33147113594041,2.001862197392924,0,17.737430167597765,26.443202979515828,47.486033519553075]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

Register observations
As ofElectorsNotes
2026-08-114,118
Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.
{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 621,
  "cne_parish": null,
  "cne_province": 15,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electors_august": 4118,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-15-621",
  "name": "C. J. AROSEMENA TOLA / NAPO",
  "office": "Mayor",
  "precinct_rows": [
    3021,
    3071,
    3072
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 7,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “C. J. AROSEMENA TOLA / NAPO — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-15-621. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.