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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

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Office briefing

PABLO SEXTO / MORONA SANTIAGO — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · PABLO SEXTO / MORONA SANTIAGO / MORONA SANTIAGO · municipal · MayorEC-M-14-796

Read the complete original research briefing

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
PABLO SEXTO / MORONA SANTIAGO / MORONA SANTIAGO
Next election
2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event
next-c59965910aefb137263d2eac
Registry qualification
Qualified in source register

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • HAGAMOS HISTORIA POR MORONA SANTIAGO57.0%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK43.0%
Results for event-db10d198faa40b37cb423ce7
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
HAGAMOS HISTORIA POR MORONA SANTIAGO · YAJAIRA ELIZABETH RAMON RODAS1252ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202383857%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · NANCY ÑAUTA7ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202363143%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ42.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO LIBERTAD ES PUEBLO, LEP34.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK23.3%
Results for event-414dc47ef5f9645490ee95b3
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ · LENIN VERDUGO198ecuador/Sed7b513864/201963242.4%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO LIBERTAD ES PUEBLO, LEP · YAJAIRA RAMON RODAS235ecuador/Sed7b513864/201951234.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · IPIAK GUADALUPE TAPIA CARDENAS12ecuador/Sed7b513864/201934823.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK46.0%
  • ALIANZA JUNTOS POR MORONA SANTIAGO28.9%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS25.1%
Results for event-2dee17727fede7db858865a8
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · ANTUNI CATANI RAFAEL DOMINGO5ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201456746%1Recorded
ALIANZA JUNTOS POR MORONA SANTIAGO · TENECELA YUQUI CARLOS EDELMIRO14004ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201435628.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS · GUAMAN GUAMAN DIEGO RUBEN3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201431025.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

37.110–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=14.091218515997284, oldest_gap=17.112733171127335, previous_gap=8.042895442359246

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

19.63percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,0,42.95439074200136,0,0,0,57.04560925799864],[0,0,23.324396782841823,0,0,0,76.67560321715817],[0,0,45.98540145985402,0,0,25.141930251419303,28.872668288726683]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

47.8percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,0,42.95439074200136,0,0,0,57.04560925799864],[0,0,23.324396782841823,0,0,0,76.67560321715817],[0,0,45.98540145985402,0,0,25.141930251419303,28.872668288726683]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

33.72percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,0,42.95439074200136,0,0,0,57.04560925799864],[0,0,23.324396782841823,0,0,0,76.67560321715817],[0,0,45.98540145985402,0,0,25.141930251419303,28.872668288726683]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

Register observations
As ofElectorsNotes
2026-08-111,869
Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.
{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 796,
  "cne_parish": null,
  "cne_province": 14,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electors_august": 1869,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-14-796",
  "name": "PABLO SEXTO / MORONA SANTIAGO",
  "office": "Mayor",
  "precinct_rows": [
    2921,
    2964
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 7,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “PABLO SEXTO / MORONA SANTIAGO — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-14-796. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.