Office briefing
PEDERNALES / MANABÍ — Mayor
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Ecuador · PEDERNALES / MANABÍ / MANABÍ · municipal · MayorEC-M-13-910
Read the complete original research briefing
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- PEDERNALES / MANABÍ / MANABÍ
- Next election
- 2026-11-29
- Linked upcoming event
- next-98716bbe1b2f1eca1a0b4a5e
- Registry qualification
- Qualified in source register
2. How certain is that date?
2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023-02-05
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- RC - SÍ PODEMOS, LISTAS 5-7234.3%
- MANABITAMENTE31.8%
- ALIANZA POR LA UNIDAD MANABITA19.8%
- 1-3310.1%
- PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA1.2%
- CON EL CORAZON DEL PUEBLO1.1%
- MOVIMIENTO PUEBLO IGUALDAD DEMOCRACIA PID1.0%
- MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK0.6%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC - SÍ PODEMOS, LISTAS 5-72 · MANUEL PANEZO | 1378ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 11,913 | 34.3% | 1 | Recorded |
| MANABITAMENTE · DIEGO CELORIO | 1079ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 11,056 | 31.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| ALIANZA POR LA UNIDAD MANABITA · PATRICIA SALTOS | 1041ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 6,882 | 19.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| 1-33 · FREMIOT CEDEÑO DUEÑAS | 1387ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 3,498 | 10.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · JUAN NARVAEZ | 117ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 417 | 1.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| CON EL CORAZON DEL PUEBLO · JOSE EDUARDO CHICA VALENCIA | 1055ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 397 | 1.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO PUEBLO IGUALDAD DEMOCRACIA PID · AMARO ROBLES | 222ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 338 | 1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · EDWIN RODRIGO ERAZO LOPEZ | 7ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 222 | 0.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2019-03-24
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- ALIANZA OPORTUNIDAD Y CAMBIO - MOVIMIENTO MEJOR LISTAS 100 - MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS LISTAS 35 - MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SI LISTAS 20 - MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO LISTAS 1 - PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANA LISTAS 1727.9%
- MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL19.6%
- MOVIMIENTO DE ACCIÓN CÍVICA DE HOMBRES Y MUJERES POR EL TRABAJO Y LA EQUIDAD, MACHETE15.8%
- ALIANZA POR LA UNIDAD MANABITA PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO LISTAS 6 - MOVIMIENTO UNIDAD PRIMERO LISTAS 6513.2%
- MOVIMIENTO LIBERTAD ES PUEBLO, LEP7.2%
- ALIANZA CREO LISTA 21 - SI PODEMOS LISTA 726.9%
- MOVIMIENTO NUEVA GENERACION3.2%
- UNIDAD POPULAR1.7%
- MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA1.4%
- FUERZA.EC1.3%
- MOVIMIENTO ECUATORIANO UNIDO0.7%
- PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO0.5%
- MOVIMIENTO CONCERTACION0.5%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALIANZA OPORTUNIDAD Y CAMBIO - MOVIMIENTO MEJOR LISTAS 100 - MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS LISTAS 35 - MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SI LISTAS 20 - MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO LISTAS 1 - PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANA LISTAS 17 · OSCAR ARCENTALES | 732ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 9,018 | 27.9% | 1 | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL · MANUEL PANEZO ROJAS | 148ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 6,316 | 19.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DE ACCIÓN CÍVICA DE HOMBRES Y MUJERES POR EL TRABAJO Y LA EQUIDAD, MACHETE · DIEGO CELORIO BARRENO | 41ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 5,117 | 15.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| ALIANZA POR LA UNIDAD MANABITA PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO LISTAS 6 - MOVIMIENTO UNIDAD PRIMERO LISTAS 65 · GABRIEL ALCIVAR ROBLES | 711ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 4,270 | 13.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO LIBERTAD ES PUEBLO, LEP · CRUZ YANDRE ARTEAGA MACIAS | 235ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 2,335 | 7.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| ALIANZA CREO LISTA 21 - SI PODEMOS LISTA 72 · COLON ANDRADE | 673ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 2,242 | 6.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO NUEVA GENERACION · FANNY VERA | 264ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,046 | 3.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| UNIDAD POPULAR · LUIS ENRIQUE CLAVIJO CASTILLO | 143ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 561 | 1.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA · RAMON ANTONIO VERA VILELA | 37ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 457 | 1.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| FUERZA.EC · ROSA PUERTAS ROSALES | 146ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 418 | 1.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO ECUATORIANO UNIDO · ELCIE NORITA BUSTAMANTE | 219ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 218 | 0.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO · JOSE VICENTE FERRIN REYNA | 3ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 154 | 0.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CONCERTACION · CRISTOBAL ZAMBRANO | 18ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 146 | 0.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2014-02-23
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO48.1%
- PARTIDO AVANZA37.3%
- PAIS - UNIDAD PRIMERO 35-6512.1%
- MOVIMIENTO CREO1.2%
- MOVIMIENTO SUMA0.6%
- MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK0.3%
- ALIANZA CIVICA CIUDADANA0.2%
- MOVIMIENTO DE ACCION CIVICA HUMANISTA POR LA ETICA EL TRABAJO I EQUIDAD0.2%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO · ALCIVAR ROBLES NESTOR GABRIEL | 10ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 13,210 | 48.1% | 1 | Recorded |
| PARTIDO AVANZA · ARCENTALES NIETO OSCAR EDUARDO | 6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 10,245 | 37.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PAIS - UNIDAD PRIMERO 35-65 · PANEZO ROJAS MANUEL ISIDRO | 13011ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 3,313 | 12.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CREO · CEVALLOS CENTENO CARLOS LUIS ARNULFO | 8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 324 | 1.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO SUMA · MACIAS COVEÑA CARLOS MANUEL | 13ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 152 | 0.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · VALENCIA MACIAS PORFIRIO ANTONIO | 5ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 96 | 0.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| ALIANZA CIVICA CIUDADANA · LEON ARRIAGA DARWIN RODRIGO | 13010ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 52 | 0.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DE ACCION CIVICA HUMANISTA POR LA ETICA EL TRABAJO I EQUIDAD · INTRIAGO BRAVO LANDER JAVIER | 13002ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 46 | 0.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI74.640–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=2.468104714454398, oldest_gap=10.806181208542895, previous_gap=8.365843086259211
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility1.41percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,0,0.639345678656798,0,0,0,99.3606543213432],[0,0,0,0,1.414948294012013,0,98.585051705988],[0,37.338727312486334,0.34987972884321017,1.1808440848458341,0.5539762373350827,0,60.57657263648954]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility38.87percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,0,0.639345678656798,0,0,0,99.3606543213432],[0,0,0,0,1.414948294012013,0,98.585051705988],[0,37.338727312486334,0.34987972884321017,1.1808440848458341,0.5539762373350827,0,60.57657263648954]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility20.14percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,0,0.639345678656798,0,0,0,99.3606543213432],[0,0,0,0,1.414948294012013,0,98.585051705988],[0,37.338727312486334,0.34987972884321017,1.1808440848458341,0.5539762373350827,0,60.57657263648954]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
No officeholder observation supplied.
Electoral register observations
Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.
| As of | Electors | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | 54,009 | Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.{
"call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"cne_canton": 910,
"cne_parish": null,
"cne_province": 13,
"election_date": "2026-11-29",
"electors_august": 54009,
"jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-13-910",
"name": "PEDERNALES / MANABÍ",
"office": "Mayor",
"precinct_rows": [
2461,
2462,
2510,
2511,
2521,
2541,
2542,
2543,
2544,
2617,
2648,
2724,
2725,
2763,
2764,
2765,
2771,
2777,
2792,
2799,
2800,
2801
],
"record_type": "official_electoral_register",
"register_pdf_page": 7,
"register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"snapshot": "2026-08-11",
"source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
} |
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.
Sources
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/ · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2023.zip · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2023.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2014.sav · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2014.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE 2027 precinct and electorate distribution, cutoff 11 August 2026 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE resolution PLE-CNE-1-31-7-2026: ordinary election call for 29 November 2026 · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “PEDERNALES / MANABÍ — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-13-910. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.