Office briefing
TOSAGUA / MANABÍ — Mayor
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Ecuador · TOSAGUA / MANABÍ / MANABÍ · municipal · MayorEC-M-13-550
Read the complete original research briefing
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- TOSAGUA / MANABÍ / MANABÍ
- Next election
- 2026-11-29
- Linked upcoming event
- next-f382b3fa093131df3ddc6d5c
- Registry qualification
- Qualified in source register
2. How certain is that date?
2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023-02-05
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- RC - SÍ PODEMOS, LISTAS 5-7229.1%
- MOVIMIENTO NUEVA GENERACIÓN28.3%
- ALIANZA POR LA UNIDAD MANABITA24.7%
- MANABITAMENTE8.3%
- 1-334.3%
- PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA2.5%
- MOVIMIENTO AMIGO, ACCIÓN MOVILIZADORA INDEPENDIENTE GENERANDO OPORTUNIDADES2.4%
- UNIDAD Y DECISIÓN0.4%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC - SÍ PODEMOS, LISTAS 5-72 · ROMEL CEDEÑO | 1378ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 7,722 | 29.1% | 1 | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO NUEVA GENERACIÓN · CESAR BERNABE CEVALLOS | 270ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 7,528 | 28.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| ALIANZA POR LA UNIDAD MANABITA · LEONARDO SANCHEZ LUCAS | 1041ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 6,556 | 24.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MANABITAMENTE · MARCELA MACIAS | 1079ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 2,201 | 8.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| 1-33 · RICHARD GARCIA LOOR | 1387ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 1,148 | 4.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · RODDY LOOR ALVARADO | 117ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 655 | 2.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO AMIGO, ACCIÓN MOVILIZADORA INDEPENDIENTE GENERANDO OPORTUNIDADES · DARWIN TALLEDO | 208ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 644 | 2.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| UNIDAD Y DECISIÓN · JENIFFER CARDENAS | 1477ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 109 | 0.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2019-03-24
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- ALIANZA OPORTUNIDAD Y CAMBIO - MOVIMIENTO MEJOR LISTAS 100 - MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS LISTAS 35 - MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SI LISTAS 20 - MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO LISTAS 1 - PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANA LISTAS 1740.2%
- ALIANZA POR LA UNIDAD MANABITA PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO LISTAS 6 - MOVIMIENTO UNIDAD PRIMERO LISTAS 6528.6%
- ALIANZA CREO LISTA 21 - SI PODEMOS LISTA 7219.8%
- IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA4.1%
- MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL4.0%
- MOVIMIENTO NACIONAL PODEMOS2.3%
- MOVIMIENTO CONCERTACION0.6%
- MOVIMIENTO NUEVA GENERACION0.5%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALIANZA OPORTUNIDAD Y CAMBIO - MOVIMIENTO MEJOR LISTAS 100 - MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS LISTAS 35 - MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SI LISTAS 20 - MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO LISTAS 1 - PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANA LISTAS 17 · ELBA GONZALEZ | 732ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 10,489 | 40.2% | 1 | Recorded |
| ALIANZA POR LA UNIDAD MANABITA PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO LISTAS 6 - MOVIMIENTO UNIDAD PRIMERO LISTAS 65 · LEONARDO SANCHEZ LUCAS | 711ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 7,461 | 28.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| ALIANZA CREO LISTA 21 - SI PODEMOS LISTA 72 · ROMEL CEDEÑO | 673ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 5,184 | 19.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · LOURDES VERA | 152ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,065 | 4.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL · AYDEE ZAMBRANO CORREA | 148ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,043 | 4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO NACIONAL PODEMOS · HERNAN DOMINGUEZ MUÑOZ | 142ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 600 | 2.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CONCERTACION · VERONICA CHAVEZ | 18ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 147 | 0.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO NUEVA GENERACION · MARIA CONCEPCION BRAVO | 264ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 128 | 0.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2014-02-23
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- PARTIDO AVANZA41.2%
- PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO37.4%
- PAIS - UNIDAD PRIMERO 35-6518.1%
- MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK2.1%
- MOVIMIENTO SUMA0.8%
- MOVIMIENTO DE ACCION CIVICA HUMANISTA POR LA ETICA EL TRABAJO I EQUIDAD0.4%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PARTIDO AVANZA · SANCHEZ LUCAS AGUSTIN LEONARDO | 6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 10,115 | 41.2% | 1 | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO · GONZALEZ ALAVA ELBA VIOLETA | 10ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 9,174 | 37.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PAIS - UNIDAD PRIMERO 35-65 · ALVARADO GIRALDO CESAR EDUARDO | 13011ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 4,450 | 18.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · PLAZARTE MARCILLO JUAN MANUEL | 5ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 509 | 2.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO SUMA · ALMEIDA PARRAGA MELWIN ROBERT | 13ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 196 | 0.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DE ACCION CIVICA HUMANISTA POR LA ETICA EL TRABAJO I EQUIDAD · REINOSO SALAVARRIA MANUEL SALVADOR | 13002ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 101 | 0.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI78.50–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=0.7303391936151797, oldest_gap=3.8337746995314674, previous_gap=11.59398093196003
pedersen volatility
Withheld volatilityUnknownpercentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,null,[0,41.210022407822365,2.0737421063353025,0,0.7985333061723365,0,55.91770217967]]
pedersen volatility
Withheld volatilityUnknownpercentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,null,[0,41.210022407822365,2.0737421063353025,0,0.7985333061723365,0,55.91770217967]]
pedersen volatility
Withheld volatilityUnknownpercentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,null,[0,41.210022407822365,2.0737421063353025,0,0.7985333061723365,0,55.91770217967]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
No officeholder observation supplied.
Electoral register observations
Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.
| As of | Electors | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | 35,200 | Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.{
"call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"cne_canton": 550,
"cne_parish": null,
"cne_province": 13,
"election_date": "2026-11-29",
"electors_august": 35200,
"jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-13-550",
"name": "TOSAGUA / MANABÍ",
"office": "Mayor",
"precinct_rows": [
2504,
2522,
2720,
2721,
2750,
2751,
2752,
2753,
2754,
2755,
2756
],
"record_type": "official_electoral_register",
"register_pdf_page": 7,
"register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"snapshot": "2026-08-11",
"source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
} |
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.
Sources
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/ · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2023.zip · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2023.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2014.sav · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2014.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE 2027 precinct and electorate distribution, cutoff 11 August 2026 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE resolution PLE-CNE-1-31-7-2026: ordinary election call for 29 November 2026 · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “TOSAGUA / MANABÍ — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-13-550. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.