Office briefing
EL CARMEN / MANABÍ — Mayor
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Ecuador · EL CARMEN / MANABÍ / MANABÍ · municipal · MayorEC-M-13-500
Read the complete original research briefing
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- EL CARMEN / MANABÍ / MANABÍ
- Next election
- 2026-11-29
- Linked upcoming event
- next-5c66790b6bab311b3d51e6d4
- Registry qualification
- Qualified in source register
2. How certain is that date?
2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023-02-05
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- MANABITAMENTE47.4%
- RC - SÍ PODEMOS, LISTAS 5-7221.3%
- ALIANZA POR LA UNIDAD MANABITA17.1%
- PUERTA DE ORO5.6%
- 1-334.5%
- PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA3.1%
- MOVIMIENTO NUEVA GENERACIÓN1.0%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MANABITAMENTE · MAYRA CRUZ | 1079ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 32,574 | 47.4% | 1 | Recorded |
| RC - SÍ PODEMOS, LISTAS 5-72 · FRANKLIN ESPINOZA | 1378ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 14,655 | 21.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| ALIANZA POR LA UNIDAD MANABITA · RODRIGO MENA | 1041ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 11,745 | 17.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PUERTA DE ORO · PEDRO CHILA | 1037ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 3,817 | 5.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| 1-33 · ESTEFANY CHICA BRAVO | 1387ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 3,093 | 4.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · DANIEL VALAREZO | 117ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 2,137 | 3.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO NUEVA GENERACIÓN · JESSIKA BENILDA INTRIAGO PONCE | 270ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 673 | 1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2019-03-24
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- ALIANZA POR LA UNIDAD MANABITA PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO LISTAS 6 - MOVIMIENTO UNIDAD PRIMERO LISTAS 6532.6%
- ALIANZA CREO LISTA 21 - SI PODEMOS LISTA 7227.4%
- ALIANZA OPORTUNIDAD Y CAMBIO - MOVIMIENTO MEJOR LISTAS 100 - MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS LISTAS 35 - MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SI LISTAS 20 - MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO LISTAS 1 - PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANA LISTAS 1724.2%
- UNIDAD POPULAR5.4%
- MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL5.3%
- MOVIMIENTO ECUATORIANO UNIDO1.6%
- PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE1.6%
- ALIANZA POR EL DESARROLLO DE MANABI - MOVIMIENTO AVANZA LISTAS 8 - PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRATICA LISTAS 12 - MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL LISTA 11 - MOVIMIENTO DE ACCION CIVICA DE HOMBRE Y MUJERES POR LA ETICA EL TRABAJO Y LA EQUIDAD MACHETE LISTAS 610.9%
- MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK0.6%
- PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO0.5%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALIANZA POR LA UNIDAD MANABITA PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO LISTAS 6 - MOVIMIENTO UNIDAD PRIMERO LISTAS 65 · RODRIGO MENA | 711ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 19,921 | 32.6% | 1 | Recorded |
| ALIANZA CREO LISTA 21 - SI PODEMOS LISTA 72 · URBANO VERA | 673ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 16,754 | 27.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| ALIANZA OPORTUNIDAD Y CAMBIO - MOVIMIENTO MEJOR LISTAS 100 - MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS LISTAS 35 - MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SI LISTAS 20 - MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO LISTAS 1 - PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANA LISTAS 17 · MAYRA CRUZ GARCIA | 732ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 14,816 | 24.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| UNIDAD POPULAR · PEDRO CHILA ZAMORA | 143ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 3,289 | 5.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL · HAMILTONN AGUILERA ECHEVERRIA | 148ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 3,259 | 5.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO ECUATORIANO UNIDO · SINDY LAURA ZAMBRANO ZAMBRANO | 219ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 981 | 1.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE · JACOBO DUMANI CHONILLO | 158ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 956 | 1.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| ALIANZA POR EL DESARROLLO DE MANABI - MOVIMIENTO AVANZA LISTAS 8 - PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRATICA LISTAS 12 - MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL LISTA 11 - MOVIMIENTO DE ACCION CIVICA DE HOMBRE Y MUJERES POR LA ETICA EL TRABAJO Y LA EQUIDAD MACHETE LISTAS 61 · PEDRO ANTONIO SANTANA CEDEÑO | 803ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 526 | 0.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · SANTIAGO QUIÑONEZ | 12ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 339 | 0.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO · OGER BAROSIS VELEZ MENDOZA | 3ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 322 | 0.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2014-02-23
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS42.7%
- MOVIMIENTO UNIDAD PRIMERO41.5%
- MOVIMIENTO DE ACCION CIVICA HUMANISTA POR LA ETICA EL TRABAJO I EQUIDAD6.7%
- PARTIDO AVANZA3.7%
- MOVIMIENTO SUMA3.0%
- PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO1.4%
- ALIANZA CIVICA CIUDADANA1.0%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS · CRUZ ANDRADE HUGO BENJAMIN | 3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 22,528 | 42.7% | 1 | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO UNIDAD PRIMERO · MENA RAMOS RODRIGO EGBER | 13004ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 21,880 | 41.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DE ACCION CIVICA HUMANISTA POR LA ETICA EL TRABAJO I EQUIDAD · MOREIRA VERA CARLOS ADOLFO | 13002ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 3,516 | 6.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO AVANZA · MARQUINEZ LOOR LUCIANO ALFREDO | 6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 1,936 | 3.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO SUMA · SANTANA SANTOS PEDRO ANTONIO | 13ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 1,591 | 3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO · QUIÑONEZ SERRANO SANTIAGO SAUL | 10ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 731 | 1.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| ALIANZA CIVICA CIUDADANA · RICAURTE SABANDO REGYS VICENTE | 13010ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 549 | 1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI13.360–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=26.085247619879464, oldest_gap=1.22887864823349, previous_gap=5.177967071595575
pedersen volatility
Withheld volatilityUnknownpercentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,[0,0,0.5542566584372906,0,0,0,99.44574334156273],[0,3.671464603364245,0,0,3.017200508239935,42.72249720278394,50.58883768561188]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility49.41percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,[0,0,0.5542566584372906,0,0,0,99.44574334156273],[0,3.671464603364245,0,0,3.017200508239935,42.72249720278394,50.58883768561188]]
pedersen volatility
Withheld volatilityUnknownpercentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,[0,0,0.5542566584372906,0,0,0,99.44574334156273],[0,3.671464603364245,0,0,3.017200508239935,42.72249720278394,50.58883768561188]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
No officeholder observation supplied.
Electoral register observations
Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.
| As of | Electors | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | 102,779 | Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.{
"call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"cne_canton": 500,
"cne_parish": null,
"cne_province": 13,
"election_date": "2026-11-29",
"electors_august": 102779,
"jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-13-500",
"name": "EL CARMEN / MANABÍ",
"office": "Mayor",
"precinct_rows": [
2463,
2519,
2540,
2618,
2619,
2623,
2633,
2634,
2635,
2636,
2637,
2706,
2718,
2719,
2740,
2741,
2742,
2743,
2744,
2745,
2746,
2747,
2748,
2749,
2788,
2789,
2790,
2791,
2817
],
"record_type": "official_electoral_register",
"register_pdf_page": 7,
"register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"snapshot": "2026-08-11",
"source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
} |
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.
Sources
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/ · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2023.zip · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2023.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2014.sav · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2014.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE 2027 precinct and electorate distribution, cutoff 11 August 2026 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE resolution PLE-CNE-1-31-7-2026: ordinary election call for 29 November 2026 · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “EL CARMEN / MANABÍ — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-13-500. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.