Office briefing
PAJÁN / MANABÍ — Mayor
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Ecuador · PAJÁN / MANABÍ / MANABÍ · municipal · MayorEC-M-13-495
Read the complete original research briefing
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- PAJÁN / MANABÍ / MANABÍ
- Next election
- 2026-11-29
- Linked upcoming event
- next-68476c5b28d8c8db08af10a9
- Registry qualification
- Qualified in source register
2. How certain is that date?
2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023-02-05
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- RC - SÍ PODEMOS, LISTAS 5-7226.6%
- MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK22.5%
- ALIANZA POR LA UNIDAD MANABITA18.4%
- PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO12.4%
- MANABITAMENTE9.6%
- 1-334.2%
- MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ2.0%
- PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR1.6%
- PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA1.5%
- MOVIMIENTO PUEBLO IGUALDAD DEMOCRACIA PID0.6%
- MOVIMIENTO AMIGO, ACCIÓN MOVILIZADORA INDEPENDIENTE GENERANDO OPORTUNIDADES0.5%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC - SÍ PODEMOS, LISTAS 5-72 · KAREN MARCILLO | 1378ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 7,038 | 26.6% | 1 | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · ALFONSO RODRIGUEZ VERA | 7ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 5,972 | 22.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| ALIANZA POR LA UNIDAD MANABITA · ERIKA BORBOR | 1041ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 4,881 | 18.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO · JHONNY NIETO | 34ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 3,287 | 12.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MANABITAMENTE · DELIA MORAN | 1079ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 2,553 | 9.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| 1-33 · MYRIAN ROSERO POLANCO | 1387ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 1,116 | 4.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ · JUAN CARLOS SANCHEZ PIN | 157ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 529 | 2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR · DANIEL MARTILLO | 231ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 433 | 1.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · LEONARDO MARTILLO ZAMBRANO | 117ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 390 | 1.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO PUEBLO IGUALDAD DEMOCRACIA PID · KELVIN ALVARADO | 222ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 162 | 0.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO AMIGO, ACCIÓN MOVILIZADORA INDEPENDIENTE GENERANDO OPORTUNIDADES · DIONICIO AREVALO | 208ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 144 | 0.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2019-03-24
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- ALIANZA OPORTUNIDAD Y CAMBIO EXCEPCION 17-2027.9%
- ALIANZA POR LA UNIDAD MANABITA PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO LISTAS 6 - MOVIMIENTO UNIDAD PRIMERO LISTAS 6524.3%
- MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ17.0%
- ALIANZA CREO LISTA 21 - SI PODEMOS LISTA 7210.3%
- UNIDAD POPULAR7.5%
- IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA6.7%
- MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA2.7%
- PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO1.2%
- MOVIMIENTO CONCERTACION1.1%
- MOVIMIENTO ECUATORIANO UNIDO0.7%
- UNION ECUATORIANA0.6%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALIANZA OPORTUNIDAD Y CAMBIO EXCEPCION 17-20 · NATAEL ERASMO MORAN CEVALLOS | 810ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 7,017 | 27.9% | 1 | Recorded |
| ALIANZA POR LA UNIDAD MANABITA PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO LISTAS 6 - MOVIMIENTO UNIDAD PRIMERO LISTAS 65 · GALO BORBOR FLORES | 711ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 6,102 | 24.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ · GABRIEL ZAMBRANO CHAVEZ | 198ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 4,268 | 17% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| ALIANZA CREO LISTA 21 - SI PODEMOS LISTA 72 · JHONNY NIETO | 673ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 2,593 | 10.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| UNIDAD POPULAR · ANTONIO PEREA BLANC | 143ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,894 | 7.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · NIXON VERA QUIÑONEZ | 152ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,675 | 6.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA · JUAN SANCHEZ | 37ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 667 | 2.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO · ORLY ADAN PARRALES ECHEVERRIA | 3ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 312 | 1.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CONCERTACION · MELANIO ORTEGA VERA | 18ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 277 | 1.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO ECUATORIANO UNIDO · JUAN VILLAMAR ROSADO | 219ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 181 | 0.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| UNION ECUATORIANA · CRISTOBAL BAQUE | 51ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 155 | 0.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2014-02-23
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- PAIS - UNIDAD PRIMERO 35-6555.0%
- PARTIDO AVANZA24.4%
- MOVIMIENTO CREO12.5%
- PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO2.9%
- PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO2.0%
- ALIANZA CIVICA CIUDADANA1.9%
- MOVIMIENTO SUMA1.2%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAIS - UNIDAD PRIMERO 35-65 · BORBOR FLORES GALO ATAHUALPA | 13011ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 13,647 | 55% | 1 | Recorded |
| PARTIDO AVANZA · MORAN CEVALLOS NATAEL ERASMO | 6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 6,062 | 24.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CREO · NIETO ZAMBRANO JHONNY FABIO | 8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 3,094 | 12.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO · PLAZA CACAO ORLANDO ANTONIO | 2ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 731 | 2.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO · HERRERA BURGOS LEONEL IGNACIO | 10ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 497 | 2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| ALIANZA CIVICA CIUDADANA · BUSTAMANTE BANCHON JAIRO GABRIEL | 13010ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 479 | 1.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO SUMA · LUZARDO VINCES EDILMA ESPAÑA | 13ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 309 | 1.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI67.190–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=4.021882663648366, oldest_gap=30.56126354808816, previous_gap=3.6394733701921176
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility22.53percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,0,22.531597811733636,0,0,0,77.46840218826638],[0,0,0,0,2.653036872041685,0,97.34696312795832],[0,24.42483581127362,0,12.466255691204319,1.2450139006406382,0,61.86389459688142]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility36.89percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,0,22.531597811733636,0,0,0,77.46840218826638],[0,0,0,0,2.653036872041685,0,97.34696312795832],[0,24.42483581127362,0,12.466255691204319,1.2450139006406382,0,61.86389459688142]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility29.71percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,0,22.531597811733636,0,0,0,77.46840218826638],[0,0,0,0,2.653036872041685,0,97.34696312795832],[0,24.42483581127362,0,12.466255691204319,1.2450139006406382,0,61.86389459688142]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
No officeholder observation supplied.
Electoral register observations
Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.
| As of | Electors | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | 40,199 | Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.{
"call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"cne_canton": 495,
"cne_parish": null,
"cne_province": 13,
"election_date": "2026-11-29",
"electors_august": 40199,
"jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-13-495",
"name": "PAJÁN / MANABÍ",
"office": "Mayor",
"precinct_rows": [
2534,
2535,
2536,
2537,
2538,
2539,
2552,
2553,
2554,
2615
],
"record_type": "official_electoral_register",
"register_pdf_page": 7,
"register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"snapshot": "2026-08-11",
"source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
} |
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.
Sources
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/ · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2023.zip · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2023.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2014.sav · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2014.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE 2027 precinct and electorate distribution, cutoff 11 August 2026 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE resolution PLE-CNE-1-31-7-2026: ordinary election call for 29 November 2026 · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “PAJÁN / MANABÍ — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-13-495. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.