Office briefing
BOLÍVAR / MANABÍ — Mayor
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Ecuador · BOLÍVAR / MANABÍ / MANABÍ · municipal · MayorEC-M-13-485
Read the complete original research briefing
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- BOLÍVAR / MANABÍ / MANABÍ
- Next election
- 2026-11-29
- Linked upcoming event
- next-8887293bcc0ec99493910c86
- Registry qualification
- Qualified in source register
2. How certain is that date?
2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023-02-05
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- ALIANZA POR LA UNIDAD BOLIVARENSE48.4%
- MANABITAMENTE37.7%
- RC - SÍ PODEMOS, LISTAS 5-7212.5%
- JUNTOS POR EL FUTURO0.6%
- MOVIMIENTO NUEVA GENERACIÓN0.5%
- PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO0.4%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALIANZA POR LA UNIDAD BOLIVARENSE · LEDY LAURA MUÑOZ | 1048ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 14,536 | 48.4% | 1 | Recorded |
| MANABITAMENTE · WALTHER CEVALLOS | 1079ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 11,312 | 37.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| RC - SÍ PODEMOS, LISTAS 5-72 · JOSE NASSER BITAR ZAMBRANO | 1378ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 3,750 | 12.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| JUNTOS POR EL FUTURO · YELENA BELEN PARRAGA | 1463ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 185 | 0.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO NUEVA GENERACIÓN · GEMA YADIRA REYES SABANDO | 270ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 149 | 0.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO · JESSENIA LOOR | 34ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 113 | 0.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2019-03-24
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES31.5%
- MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA20.4%
- ALIANZA POR EL PROGRESO DE BOLIVAR - PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO LISTAS 6 - MOVIMIENTO CANTONAL RENOVACION16.4%
- MOVIMIENTO SI PODEMOS9.4%
- MOVIMIENTO UNIDAD PRIMERO9.3%
- MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ4.1%
- MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL3.3%
- MOVIMIENTO MEJOR EMPRENDIMIENTO, JUSTICIA, OPORTUNIDADES REALES - MEJOR2.3%
- ALIANZA POR EL CAMBIO - PARTIDO POLITICO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRATICA LISTAS 12 - MOVIMIENTO PODEMOS LISTAS 332.0%
- FUERZA.EC0.5%
- PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO0.5%
- MOVIMIENTO CONCERTACION0.4%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES · WALTHER CEVALLOS | 22ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 8,889 | 31.5% | 1 | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA · LEDY LAURA MUÑOZ PEÑARRIETA | 13ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 5,767 | 20.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| ALIANZA POR EL PROGRESO DE BOLIVAR - PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO LISTAS 6 - MOVIMIENTO CANTONAL RENOVACION · LEONARDO FELIX LOPEZ | 724ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 4,627 | 16.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO SI PODEMOS · OMAR TOALA | 191ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 2,664 | 9.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO UNIDAD PRIMERO · SANDRA AGUSTINA GONZALEZ COBOS | 34ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 2,614 | 9.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ · WALTER GANCHOZO ZAMBRANO | 198ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,148 | 4.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL · PAULO CERTORIO VILLEGAS ALAVA | 148ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 919 | 3.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO MEJOR EMPRENDIMIENTO, JUSTICIA, OPORTUNIDADES REALES - MEJOR · MARIELA VELASQUEZ INTRIAGO | 204ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 635 | 2.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| ALIANZA POR EL CAMBIO - PARTIDO POLITICO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRATICA LISTAS 12 - MOVIMIENTO PODEMOS LISTAS 33 · KLIFFLOR CUSME SABANDO | 735ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 553 | 2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| FUERZA.EC · CARLOS RIVADENEIRA ILVES | 146ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 147 | 0.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO · ALCIA RAMON CANDELA MENENDEZ | 3ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 132 | 0.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CONCERTACION · JESUS SALVADOR MEJIA | 18ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 122 | 0.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2014-02-23
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- MOVIMIENTO SUMA28.8%
- PAIS - UNIDAD PRIMERO 35-6526.1%
- PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO26.0%
- PARTIDO AVANZA10.0%
- MOVIMIENTO CREO4.1%
- ALIANZA CIVICA CIUDADANA3.2%
- MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK1.0%
- MOVIMIENTO DE ACCION CIVICA HUMANISTA POR LA ETICA EL TRABAJO I EQUIDAD0.9%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOVIMIENTO SUMA · GONZALEZ ALAVA FRANCISCO RAMON | 13ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 7,577 | 28.8% | 1 | Recorded |
| PAIS - UNIDAD PRIMERO 35-65 · BITAR HUERTA JOSE NASSER CHAFIC | 13011ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 6,883 | 26.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO · TOALA SANTANA OMAR URBANO | 10ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 6,847 | 26% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO AVANZA · PARRAGA ZAMBRANO JOSE RUBEN | 6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 2,621 | 10% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CREO · VERA INTRIAGO SANDRA MARIA | 8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 1,075 | 4.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| ALIANZA CIVICA CIUDADANA · ORMAZA VELASQUEZ EUGENIO JAVIER | 13010ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 831 | 3.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · CARRANZA RODRIGUEZ JAVIEL VICENTE | 5ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 262 | 1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DE ACCION CIVICA HUMANISTA POR LA ETICA EL TRABAJO I EQUIDAD · RIVERA CALDERON JUAN PABLO | 13002ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 245 | 0.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI49.890–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=10.730570810450985, oldest_gap=2.6346759804107656, previous_gap=11.06425204663855
pedersen volatility
Withheld volatilityUnknownpercentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,[0,0,0,31.502285856044228,0,20.438033809405677,48.059680334550094],[0,9.950267643597433,0.9946471280513268,4.0810903154777725,28.765043088721004,0,56.208951824152464]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility47.86percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,[0,0,0,31.502285856044228,0,20.438033809405677,48.059680334550094],[0,9.950267643597433,0.9946471280513268,4.0810903154777725,28.765043088721004,0,56.208951824152464]]
pedersen volatility
Withheld volatilityUnknownpercentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,[0,0,0,31.502285856044228,0,20.438033809405677,48.059680334550094],[0,9.950267643597433,0.9946471280513268,4.0810903154777725,28.765043088721004,0,56.208951824152464]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
No officeholder observation supplied.
Electoral register observations
Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.
| As of | Electors | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | 40,900 | Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.{
"call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"cne_canton": 485,
"cne_parish": null,
"cne_province": 13,
"election_date": "2026-11-29",
"electors_august": 40900,
"jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-13-485",
"name": "BOLÍVAR / MANABÍ",
"office": "Mayor",
"precinct_rows": [
2465,
2517,
2638,
2689,
2690,
2691,
2692,
2693,
2694,
2695,
2696
],
"record_type": "official_electoral_register",
"register_pdf_page": 7,
"register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"snapshot": "2026-08-11",
"source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
} |
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.
Sources
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/ · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2023.zip · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2023.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2014.sav · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2014.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE 2027 precinct and electorate distribution, cutoff 11 August 2026 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE resolution PLE-CNE-1-31-7-2026: ordinary election call for 29 November 2026 · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “BOLÍVAR / MANABÍ — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-13-485. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.