Office briefing

ROCAFUERTE / MANABÍ — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · ROCAFUERTE / MANABÍ / MANABÍ · municipal · MayorEC-M-13-465

Read the complete original research briefing

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography: ROCAFUERTE / MANABÍ / MANABÍ
Next election: 2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event: next-4ddb3ccd7ed76b4c40ac95a7
Registry qualification: Qualified in source register

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

ALIANZA POR LA UNIDAD ROCAFORTENSE40.3%
PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA32.6%
MANABITAMENTE12.7%
RC - SÍ PODEMOS, LISTAS 5-727.1%
MOVIMIENTO GENTE NUEVA (MGN)6.5%
MOVIMIENTO PODER POPULAR ROCAFUERTE0.4%
UNIDAD ROCAFORTENSE0.3%

Results for event-95e37c7abe12853e74f11da2
Label / candidate	Party code	Votes	Share	Seats	Status
ALIANZA POR LA UNIDAD ROCAFORTENSE · NORBERTO VELEZ	1049ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	10,398	40.3%	1	Recorded
PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · JOSE LUIS MUÑOZ	117ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	8,430	32.6%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MANABITAMENTE · ROQUE RIVADENEIRA	1079ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	3,285	12.7%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
RC - SÍ PODEMOS, LISTAS 5-72 · GEMA RODRIGUEZ	1378ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	1,839	7.1%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO GENTE NUEVA (MGN) · JHONNY MENDOZA BRAVO	202ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	1,690	6.5%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO PODER POPULAR ROCAFUERTE · ELOY ALFREDO LOOR INTRIAGO	47ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	101	0.4%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
UNIDAD ROCAFORTENSE · JOMAIRA VERGARA	1088ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	89	0.3%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

MOVIMIENTO SI PODEMOS36.3%
ALIANZA POR EL DESARROLLO DE ROCAFUERTE - PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO LISTAS 6 - MOVIMIENTO UNIDAD PRIMERO LISTAS 65 - MOVIMIENTO CANTONAL NUEVA VISION LISTAS 10930.2%
MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ17.6%
MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA4.7%
ALIANZA PROGRAMATICA Y DE PARTICIPACION ELECTORAL4.7%
MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL2.9%
CENTRO DEMOCRATICO1.0%
FUERZA.EC0.7%
UNION ECUATORIANA0.5%
ALIANZA POR EL DESARROLLO DE MANABI - MOVIMIENTO AVANZA LISTAS 8 - PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRATICA LISTAS 12 - MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL LISTA 11 - MOVIMIENTO DE ACCION CIVICA DE HOMBRE Y MUJERES POR LA ETICA EL TRABAJO Y LA EQUIDAD MACHETE LISTAS 610.4%
MOVIMIENTO ECUATORIANO UNIDO0.4%
MOVIMIENTO NUEVA GENERACION0.3%
MOVIMIENTO CONCERTACION0.3%

Results for event-1565caffdc036fbd24b66a51
Label / candidate	Party code	Votes	Share	Seats	Status
MOVIMIENTO SI PODEMOS · PATRICIO ZAMBRANO MACIAS	191ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	8,823	36.3%	1	Recorded
ALIANZA POR EL DESARROLLO DE ROCAFUERTE - PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO LISTAS 6 - MOVIMIENTO UNIDAD PRIMERO LISTAS 65 - MOVIMIENTO CANTONAL NUEVA VISION LISTAS 109 · NORBERTO VELEZ	737ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	7,333	30.2%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ · DIMAS PACIFICO ZAMBRANO VACA	198ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	4,266	17.6%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA · GUIDO MENDOZA	37ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	1,149	4.7%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
ALIANZA PROGRAMATICA Y DE PARTICIPACION ELECTORAL · JOSE LUIS MUÑOZ CEDEÑO	809ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	1,134	4.7%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL · YOFRE RAMON MENDOZA ZAMBRANO	148ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	715	2.9%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
CENTRO DEMOCRATICO · JORGE BUSTAMANTE	145ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	254	1%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
FUERZA.EC · JUAN BOSCO CEDEÑO	146ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	161	0.7%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
UNION ECUATORIANA · MARIA ALEXANDRA ZAMBRANO LOPEZ	51ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	133	0.5%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
ALIANZA POR EL DESARROLLO DE MANABI - MOVIMIENTO AVANZA LISTAS 8 - PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRATICA LISTAS 12 - MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL LISTA 11 - MOVIMIENTO DE ACCION CIVICA DE HOMBRE Y MUJERES POR LA ETICA EL TRABAJO Y LA EQUIDAD MACHETE LISTAS 61 · JIMMY GONZENBACH	803ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	91	0.4%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ECUATORIANO UNIDO · VICTOR MENDOZA	219ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	90	0.4%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO NUEVA GENERACION · EDGAR SIXTO GARCIA MUENTES	264ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	85	0.3%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CONCERTACION · MERCEDES MENDOZA	18ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	73	0.3%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

PARTIDO AVANZA49.8%
PAIS - UNIDAD PRIMERO 35-6539.7%
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO8.8%
MOVIMIENTO PODER POPULAR ROCAFUERTE1.2%
MOVIMIENTO DE ACCION CIVICA HUMANISTA POR LA ETICA EL TRABAJO I EQUIDAD0.5%

Results for event-d8637110f9a99df3412dbdce
Label / candidate	Party code	Votes	Share	Seats	Status
PARTIDO AVANZA · ZAMBRANO VACA DIMAS PACIFICO	6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	11,776	49.8%	1	Recorded
PAIS - UNIDAD PRIMERO 35-65 · ZAMBRANO MACIAS ROQUE PATRICIO	13011ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	9,377	39.7%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO · BERMUDEZ ABEIGA ALEJANDRO ERNESTO	10ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	2,076	8.8%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO PODER POPULAR ROCAFUERTE · LOOR ARTEAGA CELSO NORBERTO	13005ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	294	1.2%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE ACCION CIVICA HUMANISTA POR LA ETICA EL TRABAJO I EQUIDAD · CEDEÑO DELGADO RICHAR NARCISO	13002ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	111	0.5%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

62.870–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=7.618457726850416, oldest_gap=10.150630447660149, previous_gap=6.1299214218126465

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,[0,0,0,0,4.727033364874316,0,95.2729666351257],[0,49.826521113649825,0,0,0,0,50.173478886350175]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

49.83percentage points

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,[0,0,0,0,4.727033364874316,0,95.2729666351257],[0,49.826521113649825,0,0,0,0,50.173478886350175]]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,[0,0,0,0,4.727033364874316,0,95.2729666351257],[0,49.826521113649825,0,0,0,0,50.173478886350175]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

As of

Electors

Notes

2026-08-11

34,555

Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.

{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 465,
  "cne_parish": null,
  "cne_province": 13,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electors_august": 34555,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-13-465",
  "name": "ROCAFUERTE / MANABÍ",
  "office": "Mayor",
  "precinct_rows": [
    2445,
    2446,
    2447,
    2448,
    2449,
    2512,
    2515,
    2625,
    2710,
    2730
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 7,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

Sources

Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834 · rights unknown
Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971 · rights unknown
Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133 · rights unknown
Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/ · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2023.zip · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2023.dat · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019.dat · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2019.dat · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2014.sav · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2014.dat · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE 2027 precinct and electorate distribution, cutoff 11 August 2026 · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE resolution PLE-CNE-1-31-7-2026: ordinary election call for 29 November 2026 · rights unknown

Cite this record

Center for Digital Democracy. “ROCAFUERTE / MANABÍ — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-13-465. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.