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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

MONTECRISTI / MANABÍ — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · MONTECRISTI / MANABÍ / MANABÍ · municipal · MayorEC-M-13-445

Read the complete original research briefing

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
MONTECRISTI / MANABÍ / MANABÍ
Next election
2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event
next-1da53a5f222d3410401efae6
Registry qualification
Qualified in source register

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • POR EL TRABAJO Y BIENESTAR DE LOS MANABITAS23.5%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO16.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA14.0%
  • MANABITAMENTE11.4%
  • ALIANZA POR LA UNIDAD MONTECRISTENSE10.0%
  • MOVIMIENTO SI PODEMOS6.6%
  • 1-335.9%
  • PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO2.8%
  • PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR2.7%
  • MOVIMIENTO AMIGO, ACCIÓN MOVILIZADORA INDEPENDIENTE GENERANDO OPORTUNIDADES2.6%
  • MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ1.3%
  • PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA1.1%
  • MOVIMIENTO PUEBLO IGUALDAD DEMOCRACIA PID1.1%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK0.5%
Results for event-c0d8d4f7c386c1ee9e80b924
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
POR EL TRABAJO Y BIENESTAR DE LOS MANABITAS · JONATHAN TORO1248ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202311,12823.5%1Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO · EDUARDO ARTEAGA PALACIOS32ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20237,73316.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA · DAYSI SOTO207ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20236,60314%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MANABITAMENTE · CRISTOBAL SIMBAÑA1079ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20235,37811.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA POR LA UNIDAD MONTECRISTENSE · JOHANNA DELGADO1050ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20234,74210%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO SI PODEMOS · RICARDO QUIJIJE156ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20233,1266.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
1-33 · GABRIEL GILER MENDOZA1387ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20232,8005.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO · FREDDY DELGADO34ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231,3422.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR · HERNAN ALMEIDA231ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231,3002.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO AMIGO, ACCIÓN MOVILIZADORA INDEPENDIENTE GENERANDO OPORTUNIDADES · OSWALDO CARRILLO208ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231,2442.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ · RONALD IVAN ZAVALA MURILLO157ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20236121.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · LEYSIR LARGACHA LEON117ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20235341.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO PUEBLO IGUALDAD DEMOCRACIA PID · NUBE LUCAS222ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20235301.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · KAVIRIA ZAMBRANO7ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20232320.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • ALIANZA POR LA UNIDAD MANABITA PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO LISTAS 6 - MOVIMIENTO UNIDAD PRIMERO LISTAS 6527.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL13.7%
  • MOVIMIENTO INTEGRAFDOR RENACE, MIR13.4%
  • ALIANZA OPORTUNIDAD Y CAMBIO EXCEPCION 1711.0%
  • MOVIMIENTO PUEBLO ALFARISTA6.5%
  • MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL5.1%
  • MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA4.6%
  • ALIANZA CREO LISTA 21 - SI PODEMOS LISTA 723.6%
  • PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO3.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO ECUATORIANO UNIDO2.9%
  • PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE1.8%
  • FUERZA.EC1.8%
  • ALIANZA POR EL CAMBIO DE MONTECRISTI - PARTIDO POLITICO AVANZA LISTAS 8 - PARTIDO POLITICO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRATICA LISTAS 121.6%
  • MOVIMIENTO LIBERTAD ES PUEBLO, LEP1.1%
  • UNIDAD POPULAR0.9%
  • UNION ECUATORIANA0.6%
  • MOVIMIENTO CONCERTACION0.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO NUEVA GENERACION0.4%
Results for event-4edec76fa1fbf521ba07b1e4
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
ALIANZA POR LA UNIDAD MANABITA PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO LISTAS 6 - MOVIMIENTO UNIDAD PRIMERO LISTAS 65 · WASHINGTON ARTEAGA711ecuador/Sed7b513864/201911,64627.3%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL · RAFAEL CARRILLO MONTERO148ecuador/Sed7b513864/20195,84713.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO INTEGRAFDOR RENACE, MIR · MIGUEL DELGADO ALARCON153ecuador/Sed7b513864/20195,70713.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA OPORTUNIDAD Y CAMBIO EXCEPCION 17 · RICARDO QUIJIJE814ecuador/Sed7b513864/20194,68811%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO PUEBLO ALFARISTA · CARLOS TEODORO DELGADO ALONZO261ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192,7616.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL · ADRIAN PAZMIÑO RUIZ170ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192,1635.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA · LEYSIR LARGACHA37ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,9464.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA CREO LISTA 21 - SI PODEMOS LISTA 72 · JHON CHOEZ673ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,5453.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO · PAOLA LUCAS MENDOZA8ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,4283.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ECUATORIANO UNIDO · RUBEN DARIO GILER CAÑARTE219ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,2362.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE · ROQUE MERO158ecuador/Sed7b513864/20197511.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
FUERZA.EC · IVAN LUCAS146ecuador/Sed7b513864/20197461.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA POR EL CAMBIO DE MONTECRISTI - PARTIDO POLITICO AVANZA LISTAS 8 - PARTIDO POLITICO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRATICA LISTAS 12 · KAVIRIA ZAMBRANO806ecuador/Sed7b513864/20196771.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO LIBERTAD ES PUEBLO, LEP · JORGE RODRIGUEZ PACHAY235ecuador/Sed7b513864/20194601.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
UNIDAD POPULAR · JORGE LUIS DELGADO143ecuador/Sed7b513864/20193970.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
UNION ECUATORIANA · YOLANDA GILER RODRIGUEZ51ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192380.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CONCERTACION · EDISON ZAMBRANO18ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191880.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO NUEVA GENERACION · JOHANA VELEZ264ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191820.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • MOVIMIENTO SUMA29.5%
  • MOVIMIENTO CREO28.9%
  • PARTIDO AVANZA19.1%
  • PAIS - UNIDAD PRIMERO 35-6518.3%
  • ALIANZA CIVICA CIUDADANA1.2%
  • PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO1.1%
  • PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO1.1%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE ACCION CIVICA HUMANISTA POR LA ETICA EL TRABAJO I EQUIDAD0.7%
Results for event-8bd6fbb1206c3f70172bdd58
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO SUMA · QUIJIJE ANCHUNDIA DIOMEDES RICARDO13ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201410,16429.5%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO · ARTEAGA PALACIOS WILVER WASHINGTON8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20149,97028.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO AVANZA · TORO DELGADO MODESTO CRISTOBAL6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20146,58419.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PAIS - UNIDAD PRIMERO 35-65 · CASTILLO FARFAN GIANNA VANESSA13011ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20146,32218.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA CIVICA CIUDADANA · LUCAS BAQUE IVAN RAUL13010ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20144231.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO · DELGADO ALCIVAR JORGE LUIS10ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20143781.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO · QUIJIJE BAQUE JUAN CARLOS2ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20143771.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE ACCION CIVICA HUMANISTA POR LA ETICA EL TRABAJO I EQUIDAD · ESPAÑA CEDENO MANUEL FLORENCIO13002ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20142450.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

57.770–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=7.176982918992049, oldest_gap=0.5629225546237961, previous_gap=13.610759048021407

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

16.84percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[16.34745476069677,0,0.4904447826822256,0,0,0,83.162100456621],[0,0,0,0,4.567431817114961,0,95.43256818288502],[0,19.104546905376782,0,28.929576647418973,29.49249920204277,0,22.47337724516148]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

72.96percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[16.34745476069677,0,0.4904447826822256,0,0,0,83.162100456621],[0,0,0,0,4.567431817114961,0,95.43256818288502],[0,19.104546905376782,0,28.929576647418973,29.49249920204277,0,22.47337724516148]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

44.9percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[16.34745476069677,0,0.4904447826822256,0,0,0,83.162100456621],[0,0,0,0,4.567431817114961,0,95.43256818288502],[0,19.104546905376782,0,28.929576647418973,29.49249920204277,0,22.47337724516148]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

Register observations
As ofElectorsNotes
2026-08-1164,382
Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.
{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 445,
  "cne_parish": null,
  "cne_province": 13,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electors_august": 64382,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-13-445",
  "name": "MONTECRISTI / MANABÍ",
  "office": "Mayor",
  "precinct_rows": [
    2442,
    2505,
    2506,
    2507,
    2508,
    2509,
    2560,
    2561,
    2562,
    2563,
    2613,
    2624,
    2708,
    2709,
    2733,
    2793
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 7,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “MONTECRISTI / MANABÍ — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-13-445. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.