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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

BUENA FE / LOS RÍOS — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · BUENA FE / LOS RÍOS / LOS RÍOS · municipal · MayorEC-M-12-945

Read the complete original research briefing

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
BUENA FE / LOS RÍOS / LOS RÍOS
Next election
2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event
next-c7358dc3cde3120ddb5b2e15
Registry qualification
Qualified in source register

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • RC5-RETO 3342.2%
  • UNIDOS POR LOS RIOS 1-3-4-17-20-21-23-2532.8%
  • CRECER POR UN BUENA FE MAS HUMANO21.0%
  • PARTIDO AVANZA1.3%
  • PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR1.2%
  • PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA1.1%
  • MOVIMIENTO AMIGO, ACCIÓN MOVILIZADORA INDEPENDIENTE GENERANDO OPORTUNIDADES0.4%
Results for event-3c8e96407016692dcab2dd5f
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
RC5-RETO 33 · DIANA ANCHUNDIA YEPEZ1324ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202318,07442.2%1Recorded
UNIDOS POR LOS RIOS 1-3-4-17-20-21-23-25 · ARMANDO MANOBANDA CEDEÑO1501ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202314,01132.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
CRECER POR UN BUENA FE MAS HUMANO · LUIS RAMON ZAMBRANO1220ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20238,98721%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO AVANZA · AMOSANDRA TORRES PARREÑO101ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20235741.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR · MAOLY ZAMBRANO ZAMBRANO231ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20235061.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · FREDDY OLVERA117ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20234771.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO AMIGO, ACCIÓN MOVILIZADORA INDEPENDIENTE GENERANDO OPORTUNIDADES · MILENA DUARTE208ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231520.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • CREO - FE49.7%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO40.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA8.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO ECUATORIANO UNIDO1.1%
  • PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO0.6%
Results for event-bf206f9318a5853ca4265d01
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
CREO - FE · EDUARDO MENDOZA PALMA659ecuador/Sed7b513864/201919,45149.7%1Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO · LUIS RAMON ZAMBRANO BELLO1ecuador/Sed7b513864/201915,81840.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA · MARIA FERNANDA ZAMBRANO MOLINA13ecuador/Sed7b513864/20193,2528.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ECUATORIANO UNIDO · INOCENTE CAMPOS BERMEO219ecuador/Sed7b513864/20194241.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO · NELSON CUEVA RODRIGUEZ3ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192310.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • PARTIDO AVANZA51.5%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS35.9%
  • MOVIMIENTO CREO8.2%
  • MOVIMIENTO SUMA3.6%
  • UNIDAD CON BUENA-FE0.9%
Results for event-e43c92759eadf640cef93d04
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO AVANZA · MENDOZA PALMA ERWIN EDUARDO6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201419,01551.5%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS · ZAMBRANO BELLO LUIS RAMON3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201413,27635.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO · JIMENEZ GOMEZ FLEISHMAN MOROSOT8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20143,0208.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO SUMA · OLVERA RUIZ FREDDY BORGE13ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141,3123.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
UNIDAD CON BUENA-FE · ROSADO ESPINOZA HILTON EUSTAQUIO12016ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20143300.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

49.830–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=9.497206703910614, oldest_gap=15.530538792520233, previous_gap=9.273534817235038

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

48.68percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,1.3417171174119351,0,0,0,0,98.65828288258807],[40.37676128241781,0,0,0,0,8.301000612619971,51.322238104962224],[0,51.45725651503261,0,8.172543501204233,3.5504559846291235,35.92671772251238,0.8930262766216546]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

90.81percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,1.3417171174119351,0,0,0,0,98.65828288258807],[40.37676128241781,0,0,0,0,8.301000612619971,51.322238104962224],[0,51.45725651503261,0,8.172543501204233,3.5504559846291235,35.92671772251238,0.8930262766216546]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

69.74percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,1.3417171174119351,0,0,0,0,98.65828288258807],[40.37676128241781,0,0,0,0,8.301000612619971,51.322238104962224],[0,51.45725651503261,0,8.172543501204233,3.5504559846291235,35.92671772251238,0.8930262766216546]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

Register observations
As ofElectorsNotes
2026-08-1162,530
Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.
{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 945,
  "cne_parish": null,
  "cne_province": 12,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electors_august": 62530,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-12-945",
  "name": "BUENA FE / LOS RÍOS",
  "office": "Mayor",
  "precinct_rows": [
    2310,
    2311,
    2312,
    2313,
    2314,
    2315,
    2316,
    2317,
    2318,
    2319,
    2320
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 7,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “BUENA FE / LOS RÍOS — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-12-945. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.