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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

URDANETA / LOS RÍOS — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · URDANETA / LOS RÍOS / LOS RÍOS · municipal · MayorEC-M-12-535

Read the complete original research briefing

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
URDANETA / LOS RÍOS / LOS RÍOS
Next election
2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event
next-727fec3c40d62d4ff2818e7f
Registry qualification
Qualified in source register

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • POR TI URDANETA MI TIERRA AMADA37.1%
  • UNIDOS POR LOS RIOS 1-3-4-17-20-21-23-2536.8%
  • RC5-RETO 3318.1%
  • MOVIMIENTO AMIGO, ACCIÓN MOVILIZADORA INDEPENDIENTE GENERANDO OPORTUNIDADES5.6%
  • ALIANZA MINGA POPULAR1.9%
  • PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA0.6%
Results for event-97920650703b78f297d1dc31
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
POR TI URDANETA MI TIERRA AMADA · AMADA ZAMBRANO1221ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20237,52037.1%1Recorded
UNIDOS POR LOS RIOS 1-3-4-17-20-21-23-25 · CRISTHIAN LARA GUERRERO1501ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20237,44436.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
RC5-RETO 33 · EMILIO SUBIA1324ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20233,65818.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO AMIGO, ACCIÓN MOVILIZADORA INDEPENDIENTE GENERANDO OPORTUNIDADES · RINA MARIA CANTO AGUILAR208ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231,1255.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA MINGA POPULAR · JOFFRE JORGGE ALAVA1363ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20233771.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · DANIELA VELOZ117ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231280.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • MOVIMIENTO ECUATORIANO UNIDO26.7%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA24.0%
  • MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES18.0%
  • FUERZA.EC13.4%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO6.0%
  • MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL4.0%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA BOLIVARIANA ALFARISTA L.R. (ABA L.R)3.6%
  • MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ3.2%
  • UNION ECUATORIANA1.0%
Results for event-12d2078f4b867777702ed31b
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO ECUATORIANO UNIDO · AMADA ZAMBRANO RODRIGUEZ219ecuador/Sed7b513864/20195,11126.7%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA · CRISTHIAN LARA GUERRERO13ecuador/Sed7b513864/20194,58924%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES · EMILIO SUBIA22ecuador/Sed7b513864/20193,45218%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
FUERZA.EC · WLADIMIR CORDOVA OLIVO146ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192,56913.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO · OLMEDO BORRERO CAMPOZANO1ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,1506%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL · GEOVANNY GAVICA GARCIA148ecuador/Sed7b513864/20197704%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA BOLIVARIANA ALFARISTA L.R. (ABA L.R) · ELOY DE LOOR MACIAS151ecuador/Sed7b513864/20196933.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ · HOLGER GUERRA198ecuador/Sed7b513864/20196193.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
UNION ECUATORIANA · ROBINSON ARROBA51ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191991%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO37.5%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS28.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO CREO9.9%
  • PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO8.7%
  • MOVIMIENTO SUMA6.5%
  • PARTIDO AVANZA6.1%
  • PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO2.1%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO0.9%
Results for event-dd119b4d4c3194283b3f3f9f
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO · SUBIA VERA FRANCISCO EMILIO1ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20146,56737.5%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS · ZAMBRANO RODRIGUEZ AMADA ARGENTINA3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20144,97728.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO · DUEÑAS MONTERO SOCRATES RODOLFO8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141,7309.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO · DE LOOR MACIAS ELOY BENEDICTO2ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141,5178.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO SUMA · JORGGE ALAVA IGNACIO JOFFRE13ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141,1316.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO AVANZA · ALAVA HUERTA BERTHA MARCELA6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141,0656.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO · LARA CARRERA LUIS SEVERO10ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20143632.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO · SUBIA VERA JOHN ARRY11ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141620.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

90.250–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=0.3752715781157434, oldest_gap=9.079488350845136, previous_gap=2.7255639097744364

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,[6.004594820384294,0,0,18.02422723475355,0,23.9609440267335,52.010233918128655],[0.9250799451804477,6.081544084056647,0,9.878940155322065,6.458428506167199,28.420511649154864,48.23549566011877]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

17percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,[6.004594820384294,0,0,18.02422723475355,0,23.9609440267335,52.010233918128655],[0.9250799451804477,6.081544084056647,0,9.878940155322065,6.458428506167199,28.420511649154864,48.23549566011877]]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,[6.004594820384294,0,0,18.02422723475355,0,23.9609440267335,52.010233918128655],[0.9250799451804477,6.081544084056647,0,9.878940155322065,6.458428506167199,28.420511649154864,48.23549566011877]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

Register observations
As ofElectorsNotes
2026-08-1127,807
Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.
{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 535,
  "cne_parish": null,
  "cne_province": 12,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electors_august": 27807,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-12-535",
  "name": "URDANETA / LOS RÍOS",
  "office": "Mayor",
  "precinct_rows": [
    2382,
    2383,
    2384,
    2385,
    2386,
    2387,
    2388,
    2389,
    2390
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 7,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “URDANETA / LOS RÍOS — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-12-535. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.