Office briefing
VINCES / LOS RÍOS — Mayor
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Ecuador · VINCES / LOS RÍOS / LOS RÍOS · municipal · MayorEC-M-12-525
Read the complete original research briefing
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- VINCES / LOS RÍOS / LOS RÍOS
- Next election
- 2026-11-29
- Linked upcoming event
- next-c03dd330ed8fb42360d3893b
- Registry qualification
- Qualified in source register
2. How certain is that date?
2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023-02-05
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- UNIDOS POR LOS RIOS 1-3-4-17-20-21-23-2558.1%
- LA RUTA DE LA PROSPERIDAD33.4%
- RC5-RETO 338.5%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNIDOS POR LOS RIOS 1-3-4-17-20-21-23-25 · ALFONSO MONTALVAN CEREZO | 1501ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 28,356 | 58.1% | 1 | Recorded |
| LA RUTA DE LA PROSPERIDAD · DARWIN BAJAÑA | 1189ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 16,284 | 33.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| RC5-RETO 33 · WERNER YELA ACOSTA | 1324ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 4,167 | 8.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2019-03-24
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- JUNTOS CON FE PODEMOS LOGRARLO37.1%
- PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO13.7%
- MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES11.4%
- MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL10.9%
- PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO8.4%
- MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA8.3%
- PARTIDO POLÍTICO AVANZA3.1%
- MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ2.6%
- PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE1.8%
- MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL1.1%
- MOVIMIENTO LIBERTAD ES PUEBLO, LEP0.7%
- MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA BOLIVARIANA ALFARISTA L.R. (ABA L.R)0.6%
- PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO0.4%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNTOS CON FE PODEMOS LOGRARLO · JUAN ALFONSO MONTALVAN CEREZO | 681ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 16,350 | 37.1% | 1 | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO · LEONEL FUENTES | 1ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 6,025 | 13.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES · CHRISTIAN MENDOZA DOLBERG | 22ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 5,018 | 11.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL · DANIEL TELLO RIOS | 148ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 4,807 | 10.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO · ASATIANO VELIZ LLAGUNO | 3ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 3,724 | 8.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA · CRISTIAN VILLASAGUA SANTANA | 13ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 3,650 | 8.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO POLÍTICO AVANZA · RUBEN DARIO TOVAR MORAN | 25ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,362 | 3.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ · FRANCISCO LEON VEAS | 198ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,134 | 2.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE · PIEDAD AVILES | 158ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 787 | 1.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL · JIMMY RICARDO PINCAY ARANA | 170ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 485 | 1.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO LIBERTAD ES PUEBLO, LEP · MIRIANS HIDALGO | 235ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 306 | 0.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA BOLIVARIANA ALFARISTA L.R. (ABA L.R) · FERNANDO TERAN MANJARREZ | 151ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 254 | 0.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO · WALTER CAMACHO SOLORZANO | 8ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 176 | 0.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2014-02-23
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS28.8%
- VINCES AVANZA CON LA REVOLUCION CIUDADANA16.1%
- PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO14.7%
- MOVIMIENTO CREO14.2%
- PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO10.9%
- POR EL RENACER DE VINCES7.9%
- PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO"7.3%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS · VILLASAGUA SANTANA CRISTIAN RAUL | 3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 11,284 | 28.8% | 1 | Recorded |
| VINCES AVANZA CON LA REVOLUCION CIUDADANA · SAENZ DE VITERI MENDOZA LAUTARO ENRIQUE | 12003ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 6,296 | 16.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO · MONTALVAN CEREZO JUAN ALFONSO | 1ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 5,764 | 14.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CREO · MENDOZA DOLBERG CHRISTIAN SEGUNDO | 8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 5,579 | 14.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO · VELIZ LLAGUNO EDGARDO ASATIANO | 2ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 4,283 | 10.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| POR EL RENACER DE VINCES · ROSERO GONZALEZ ISAAC GUILLERMO | 12015ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 3,104 | 7.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO" · ALMEIDA MORAN PEDRO GONZALO | 4ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 2,862 | 7.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI0 (recorded zero)0–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=24.734156985678283, oldest_gap=12.733585213928315, previous_gap=23.42438404646309
pedersen volatility
Withheld volatilityUnknownpercentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,[13.668950496846499,0,0,11.384364081854894,0,8.280774989790824,66.66591043150778],[0,0,0,14.242315939957113,0,28.80629020729092,56.95139385275196]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility23.38percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,[13.668950496846499,0,0,11.384364081854894,0,8.280774989790824,66.66591043150778],[0,0,0,14.242315939957113,0,28.80629020729092,56.95139385275196]]
pedersen volatility
Withheld volatilityUnknownpercentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,[13.668950496846499,0,0,11.384364081854894,0,8.280774989790824,66.66591043150778],[0,0,0,14.242315939957113,0,28.80629020729092,56.95139385275196]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
No officeholder observation supplied.
Electoral register observations
Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.
| As of | Electors | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | 65,639 | Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.{
"call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"cne_canton": 525,
"cne_parish": null,
"cne_province": 12,
"election_date": "2026-11-29",
"electors_august": 65639,
"jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-12-525",
"name": "VINCES / LOS RÍOS",
"office": "Mayor",
"precinct_rows": [
2423,
2424,
2425,
2426,
2427,
2428,
2429,
2430,
2431,
2432,
2433,
2434,
2435,
2436,
2437,
2438,
2439
],
"record_type": "official_electoral_register",
"register_pdf_page": 7,
"register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"snapshot": "2026-08-11",
"source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
} |
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.
Sources
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/ · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2023.zip · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2023.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2014.sav · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2014.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE 2027 precinct and electorate distribution, cutoff 11 August 2026 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE resolution PLE-CNE-1-31-7-2026: ordinary election call for 29 November 2026 · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “VINCES / LOS RÍOS — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-12-525. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.