Office briefing
BABA / LOS RÍOS — Mayor
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Ecuador · BABA / LOS RÍOS / LOS RÍOS · municipal · MayorEC-M-12-520
Read the complete original research briefing
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- BABA / LOS RÍOS / LOS RÍOS
- Next election
- 2026-11-29
- Linked upcoming event
- next-7f6aa3d736122b2251cc1039
- Registry qualification
- Qualified in source register
2. How certain is that date?
2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023-02-05
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- UNIDOS POR LOS RIOS 1-3-4-17-20-21-23-2541.2%
- PARTIDO AVANZA24.1%
- RC5-RETO 3322.6%
- JUNTOS POR BABA12.1%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNIDOS POR LOS RIOS 1-3-4-17-20-21-23-25 · JAEL MELO OLVERA | 1501ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 10,107 | 41.2% | 1 | Recorded |
| PARTIDO AVANZA · DANIEL ESCOBAR PALACIOS | 101ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 5,894 | 24.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| RC5-RETO 33 · CARMEN ZAMORA MAYORGA | 1324ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 5,545 | 22.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| JUNTOS POR BABA · WILLIAM GUERRERO | 1231ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 2,960 | 12.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2019-03-24
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA38.7%
- CREO - FE18.0%
- PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO14.6%
- PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO11.0%
- MOVIMIENTO GANADERO BABA7.7%
- UNION ECUATORIANA4.8%
- MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL2.2%
- CENTRO DEMOCRATICO1.9%
- PARTIDO POLÍTICO AVANZA1.1%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA · SONIA PALACIOS VELASQUEZ | 13ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 8,901 | 38.7% | 1 | Recorded |
| CREO - FE · JAEL MELO OLVERA | 659ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 4,132 | 18% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO · PATRICIO ALMACHE | 3ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 3,347 | 14.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO · JAIME GUERRERO | 1ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 2,529 | 11% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO GANADERO BABA · JOSE ASPIAZU MONTIEL | 58ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,771 | 7.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| UNION ECUATORIANA · ALEJANDRO ROMERO | 51ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,096 | 4.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL · MAIDA RAQUEL MONTOYA ESPINOZA | 170ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 506 | 2.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| CENTRO DEMOCRATICO · CRISTIAN FAVIAN VALENCIA VERA | 145ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 448 | 1.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO POLÍTICO AVANZA · FRANKLIN ROBERTO ACOSTA FRANCO | 25ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 258 | 1.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2014-02-23
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- BABA SÚMATE AL CAMBIO42.0%
- MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS36.9%
- MOVIMIENTO GANADERO BABA12.3%
- MOVIMIENTO CREO6.3%
- PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO"1.3%
- PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO1.2%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BABA SÚMATE AL CAMBIO · SALAZAR HIDALGO MONICA DE JESUS | 12005ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 8,977 | 42% | 1 | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS · PALACIOS VELASQUEZ SONIA LUCRECIA | 3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 7,893 | 36.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO GANADERO BABA · ASPIAZU MONTIEL JOSE NARCISO | 12002ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 2,635 | 12.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CREO · VALENCIA VERA CRISTIAN FAVIAN | 8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 1,336 | 6.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO" · ONOFRE CALDERON ANTONIO FELICISIMO | 4ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 271 | 1.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO · SANTILLAN PENAFIEL MANUEL EUSEBIO | 2ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 255 | 1.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI14.770–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=17.19170815310536, oldest_gap=5.073243787148407, previous_gap=20.745606403340876
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility49.72percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,24.051252754427487,0,0,0,0,75.9487472455725],[11.001392030624674,0,0,0,0,38.72020184444058,50.278406124934754],[0,0,0,6.252632564234568,0,36.94014133944868,56.80722609631675]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility12.78percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,24.051252754427487,0,0,0,0,75.9487472455725],[11.001392030624674,0,0,0,0,38.72020184444058,50.278406124934754],[0,0,0,6.252632564234568,0,36.94014133944868,56.80722609631675]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility31.25percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,24.051252754427487,0,0,0,0,75.9487472455725],[11.001392030624674,0,0,0,0,38.72020184444058,50.278406124934754],[0,0,0,6.252632564234568,0,36.94014133944868,56.80722609631675]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
No officeholder observation supplied.
Electoral register observations
Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.
| As of | Electors | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | 35,295 | Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.{
"call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"cne_canton": 520,
"cne_parish": null,
"cne_province": 12,
"election_date": "2026-11-29",
"electors_august": 35295,
"jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-12-520",
"name": "BABA / LOS RÍOS",
"office": "Mayor",
"precinct_rows": [
2266,
2267,
2268,
2269,
2270,
2271,
2272,
2273,
2274,
2275,
2276,
2277
],
"record_type": "official_electoral_register",
"register_pdf_page": 7,
"register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"snapshot": "2026-08-11",
"source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
} |
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.
Sources
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/ · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2023.zip · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2023.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2014.sav · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2014.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE 2027 precinct and electorate distribution, cutoff 11 August 2026 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE resolution PLE-CNE-1-31-7-2026: ordinary election call for 29 November 2026 · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “BABA / LOS RÍOS — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-12-520. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.