Office briefing
BABAHOYO / LOS RÍOS — Mayor
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Ecuador · BABAHOYO / LOS RÍOS / LOS RÍOS · municipal · MayorEC-M-12-515
Read the complete original research briefing
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- BABAHOYO / LOS RÍOS / LOS RÍOS
- Next election
- 2026-11-29
- Linked upcoming event
- next-ba35db5696afb2f6dc2a43a5
- Registry qualification
- Qualified in source register
2. How certain is that date?
2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023-02-05
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- RC5-RETO 3341.3%
- POR BABAHOYO22.3%
- UNIDOS POR LOS RIOS 1-4-17-20-21-23-2520.2%
- MOVIMIENTO CRECER9.8%
- POR UN BABAHOYO CON ROSTRO HUMANO3.3%
- PACHA ES LA PINTA2.0%
- PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR1.1%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC5-RETO 33 · GUSTAVO BARQUET | 1324ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 39,264 | 41.3% | 1 | Recorded |
| POR BABAHOYO · CESAR TROYA | 1225ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 21,240 | 22.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| UNIDOS POR LOS RIOS 1-4-17-20-21-23-25 · PABLO ARIAS AMAYA | 1500ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 19,194 | 20.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CRECER · JAVIER NAGUA | 257ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 9,304 | 9.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| POR UN BABAHOYO CON ROSTRO HUMANO · NANCY CHANG | 1199ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 3,122 | 3.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PACHA ES LA PINTA · PATRICIO AGUIRRE TRIANA | 1112ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 1,913 | 2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR · JOSE BEDON GUTIERREZ | 231ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 1,007 | 1.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2019-03-24
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO28.4%
- POR UN BABAHOYO MEJOR27.0%
- CREO - FE21.6%
- MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL11.9%
- MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ4.1%
- PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO3.1%
- PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE1.1%
- POR UNA PROVINCIA PRODUCTIVA 2-121.0%
- PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO1.0%
- MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA BOLIVARIANA ALFARISTA L.R. (ABA L.R)0.8%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO · CARLOS GERMAN GAIBOR | 1ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 25,818 | 28.4% | 1 | Recorded |
| POR UN BABAHOYO MEJOR · GUSTAVO BARQUET | 752ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 24,562 | 27% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| CREO - FE · MARIO ALBERTO TOUMA BACILIO | 659ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 19,696 | 21.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL · JUAN LOPEZ MARIDUEÑA | 148ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 10,810 | 11.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ · BYRON MOREJON | 198ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 3,773 | 4.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO · VICTOR HUGO ESCUDERO BOLAÑOS | 3ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 2,802 | 3.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE · SILVIA GUERRA | 158ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,015 | 1.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| POR UNA PROVINCIA PRODUCTIVA 2-12 · MANUEL HONORATO MORAN AVILEZ | 799ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 884 | 1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO · MONICA DEL ROCIO TERAN BUENAÑO | 8ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 884 | 1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA BOLIVARIANA ALFARISTA L.R. (ABA L.R) · JAVIER ALBERTO SCHULDT CRUZ | 151ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 757 | 0.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2014-02-23
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO-CREO-PSP LISTAS 6-21-361.4%
- MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS33.5%
- PARTIDO AVANZA1.8%
- PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO1.5%
- MOVIMIENTO SUMA0.9%
- MOVIMIENTO RENOVADOR BABAHOYENSE0.9%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO-CREO-PSP LISTAS 6-21-3 · TERAN SALCEDO JONNY ENRIQUE | 12004ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 53,723 | 61.4% | 1 | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS · HURTADO SORIANO HECTOR JOSE VICENTE | 3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 29,340 | 33.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO AVANZA · MIRANDA MEJIA JORGE JOFFRE | 6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 1,598 | 1.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO · BARQUET TOUMA JUAN JOSE | 10ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 1,284 | 1.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO SUMA · PAZ MURILLO LUIS ALBERTO | 13ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 814 | 0.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO RENOVADOR BABAHOYENSE · MANZANO SANCHEZ CARLOS JULIO | 12001ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 808 | 0.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI27.120–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=18.963848322882033, oldest_gap=27.844964427238573, previous_gap=1.3802046131361188
pedersen volatility
Withheld volatilityUnknownpercentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,[28.371116800914276,0,0,0,0,0,71.62888319908575],[0,1.82488837119006,0,0,0.9295739262507565,33.50577272260098,63.7397649799582]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility36.26percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,[28.371116800914276,0,0,0,0,0,71.62888319908575],[0,1.82488837119006,0,0,0.9295739262507565,33.50577272260098,63.7397649799582]]
pedersen volatility
Withheld volatilityUnknownpercentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,[28.371116800914276,0,0,0,0,0,71.62888319908575],[0,1.82488837119006,0,0,0.9295739262507565,33.50577272260098,63.7397649799582]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
No officeholder observation supplied.
Electoral register observations
Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.
| As of | Electors | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | 138,811 | Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.{
"call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"cne_canton": 515,
"cne_parish": null,
"cne_province": 12,
"election_date": "2026-11-29",
"electors_august": 138811,
"jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-12-515",
"name": "BABAHOYO / LOS RÍOS",
"office": "Mayor",
"precinct_rows": [
2278,
2279,
2280,
2281,
2282,
2283,
2284,
2285,
2286,
2287,
2288,
2289,
2290,
2291,
2292,
2293,
2294,
2295,
2296,
2297,
2298,
2299,
2300,
2301,
2302,
2303,
2304,
2305,
2306,
2307,
2308,
2309
],
"record_type": "official_electoral_register",
"register_pdf_page": 7,
"register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"snapshot": "2026-08-11",
"source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
} |
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.
Sources
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/ · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2023.zip · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2023.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2014.sav · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2014.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE 2027 precinct and electorate distribution, cutoff 11 August 2026 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE resolution PLE-CNE-1-31-7-2026: ordinary election call for 29 November 2026 · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “BABAHOYO / LOS RÍOS — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-12-515. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.