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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

MACARÁ / LOJA — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · MACARÁ / LOJA / LOJA · municipal · MayorEC-M-11-325

Read the complete original research briefing

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
MACARÁ / LOJA / LOJA
Next election
2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event
next-387abeea8a5a20082a3da961
Registry qualification
Qualified in source register

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • MOVIMIENTO ACCION REGIONAL POR LA EQUIDAD, ARE43.6%
  • PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA27.5%
  • JUNTOS POR MACARÁ11.2%
  • POR LOJA8.9%
  • MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA3.9%
  • SOMOS EL CAMBIO3.3%
  • EL RETO ES LOJA0.9%
  • MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRÁTICO0.6%
Results for event-5bf5dd2cf692187e1611eace
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO ACCION REGIONAL POR LA EQUIDAD, ARE · FRANCISCO AZUERO33ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20235,11543.6%1Recorded
PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · PEDRO QUITO ORELLANA117ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20233,23227.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
JUNTOS POR MACARÁ · ZOE LISBETH RIVERA MENDOZA1318ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231,31411.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
POR LOJA · ALFREDO SUQUILANDA VALDIVIESO1244ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231,0428.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA · KAREN PAULINA GAONA SANTOS207ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20234593.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
SOMOS EL CAMBIO · TUESMAN TANDAZO RUIZ1442ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20233883.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
EL RETO ES LOJA · JOSE CHAMBA1074ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231090.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRÁTICO · AMPARO SAMANIEGO TINOCO124ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023760.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • ALIANZA LOJA PROGRESA38.2%
  • IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA29.7%
  • UNIDOS SI PODEMOS18.9%
  • MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA9.7%
  • MOVIMIENTO PUEBLO, CAMBIO Y DESARROLLO3.5%
Results for event-73e4c451c216c300b888d298
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
ALIANZA LOJA PROGRESA · ALFREDO SUQUILANDA VALDIVIESO652ecuador/Sed7b513864/20194,50838.2%1Recorded
IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · DIANA ROSA CASTILLO OJEDA152ecuador/Sed7b513864/20193,51029.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
UNIDOS SI PODEMOS · JORGE VALAREZO564ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192,23318.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA · ROBERTO VIÑAN RUEDA37ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,1449.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO PUEBLO, CAMBIO Y DESARROLLO · JOSE RETETE JUMBO29ecuador/Sed7b513864/20194133.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO PUEBLO CAMBIO Y DESARROLLO32.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO IZQUIERDISTA MACAREÑO32.6%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS30.3%
  • PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO4.4%
Results for event-1a6c0c6ad6c208f41f49cfc6
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO PUEBLO CAMBIO Y DESARROLLO · VIÑAN RUEDA ROBERTO CARLOS11004ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20143,76232.8%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO IZQUIERDISTA MACAREÑO · QUITO ORELLANA PEDRO LEOPOLDO11007ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20143,73632.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS · HIDALGO JARAMILLO EDITH MARLENE3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20143,47330.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO · SILVA VACA MARIO ESTUARDO1ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20144994.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

39.070–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=16.046016190881975, oldest_gap=0.22667829119441762, previous_gap=8.451897018970186

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,[0,0,0,0,9.688346883468835,0,90.31165311653116],[0,0,0,0,0,30.27898866608544,69.72101133391456]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

30.28percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,[0,0,0,0,9.688346883468835,0,90.31165311653116],[0,0,0,0,0,30.27898866608544,69.72101133391456]]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,[0,0,0,0,9.688346883468835,0,90.31165311653116],[0,0,0,0,0,30.27898866608544,69.72101133391456]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

Register observations
As ofElectorsNotes
2026-08-1115,456
Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.
{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 325,
  "cne_parish": null,
  "cne_province": 11,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electors_august": 15456,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-11-325",
  "name": "MACARÁ / LOJA",
  "office": "Mayor",
  "precinct_rows": [
    2072,
    2073,
    2074,
    2097,
    2098,
    2099,
    2100,
    2178
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 7,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “MACARÁ / LOJA — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-11-325. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.