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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

PALTAS / LOJA — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · PALTAS / LOJA / LOJA · municipal · MayorEC-M-11-310

Read the complete original research briefing

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
PALTAS / LOJA / LOJA
Next election
2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event
next-fbe746590545c2c7ee7c70d0
Registry qualification
Qualified in source register

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • POR LOJA23.7%
  • JUNTOS POR LOJA19.6%
  • MOVIMIENTO AMIGO, ACCIÓN MOVILIZADORA INDEPENDIENTE GENERANDO OPORTUNIDADES17.0%
  • MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRÁTICO12.9%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK11.2%
  • EL RETO ES LOJA7.7%
  • PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO3.9%
  • MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA2.5%
  • PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR0.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO PUEBLO IGUALDAD DEMOCRACIA PID0.7%
Results for event-40a5727ffc0093e3d8507a70
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
POR LOJA · MANRIQUE DARWIN DIAZ MORENO1244ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20233,50523.7%1Recorded
JUNTOS POR LOJA · NERIO RAMIRO MAITA SANCHEZ1129ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20232,89019.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO AMIGO, ACCIÓN MOVILIZADORA INDEPENDIENTE GENERANDO OPORTUNIDADES · JULIA GUERRERO208ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20232,50917%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRÁTICO · ALVARO AGILA124ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231,90712.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · DIEGO DIAZ7ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231,66011.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
EL RETO ES LOJA · JUAN JIMENEZ1074ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231,1307.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO · ALBA MARIA CORONEL34ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20235763.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA · JORGE ENRIQUE TORRES MONTOYA207ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20233632.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR · MIRIAN ENCARNACION231ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231240.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO PUEBLO IGUALDAD DEMOCRACIA PID · SERVIO CAÑAR POGO222ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023960.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • ALIANZA LOJA PROGRESA27.7%
  • MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA25.0%
  • CENTRO DEMOCRATICO22.7%
  • PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO5.9%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA5.4%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO4.7%
  • IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA4.1%
  • MOVIMIENTO CONCERTACION2.4%
  • ALIANZA ÚNETE AL CAMBIO1.3%
  • FUERZA.EC0.8%
Results for event-5570149738401a2cb58e83a3
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
ALIANZA LOJA PROGRESA · JORGE LUIS FEIJOO VALAREZO807ecuador/Sed7b513864/20193,91727.7%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA · RAMIRO MAITA SANCHEZ37ecuador/Sed7b513864/20193,52725%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
CENTRO DEMOCRATICO · ALVARO AGILA HIDALGO145ecuador/Sed7b513864/20193,21022.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO · DIEGO DIAZ ARTEAGA3ecuador/Sed7b513864/20198345.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA · IRENE ENCALADA13ecuador/Sed7b513864/20197565.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO · MELVA ENCARNACION1ecuador/Sed7b513864/20196684.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · ISAURO HIDALGO152ecuador/Sed7b513864/20195824.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CONCERTACION · LUBERLI VIVANCO DIAZ18ecuador/Sed7b513864/20193362.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA ÚNETE AL CAMBIO · VICTOR JIMENEZ805ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191861.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
FUERZA.EC · SERVILIO MOROCHO ERAS146ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191140.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • MOVIMIENTO SUMA31.9%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS30.8%
  • PARTIDO AVANZA28.0%
  • ALIANZA CAMINO AL PROGRESO9.3%
Results for event-58a1e9637747f66a69027238
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO SUMA · MAITA SANCHEZ NERIO RAMIRO13ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20144,45031.9%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS · VIDAL REQUELME VICTOR ARTEMIO3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20144,29730.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO AVANZA · FEIJOO VALAREZO JORGE LUIS6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20143,91428%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA CAMINO AL PROGRESO · LOPEZ CORDOVA OVIDIO MANFREDO11012ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141,2949.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

82.810–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=4.166666666666664, oldest_gap=1.096381225367253, previous_gap=2.7600849256900197

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

35.04percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,0,11.246612466124661,0,0,0,88.75338753387534],[4.72753007784855,0,0,0,24.961075725406936,5.350318471337579,64.96107572540693],[0,28.047294876388392,0,0,31.88821211035471,30.79183088498746,9.272662128269438]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

60.42percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,0,11.246612466124661,0,0,0,88.75338753387534],[4.72753007784855,0,0,0,24.961075725406936,5.350318471337579,64.96107572540693],[0,28.047294876388392,0,0,31.88821211035471,30.79183088498746,9.272662128269438]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

47.73percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,0,11.246612466124661,0,0,0,88.75338753387534],[4.72753007784855,0,0,0,24.961075725406936,5.350318471337579,64.96107572540693],[0,28.047294876388392,0,0,31.88821211035471,30.79183088498746,9.272662128269438]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

Register observations
As ofElectorsNotes
2026-08-1120,115
Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.
{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 310,
  "cne_parish": null,
  "cne_province": 11,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electors_august": 20115,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-11-310",
  "name": "PALTAS / LOJA",
  "office": "Mayor",
  "precinct_rows": [
    2071,
    2085,
    2111,
    2112,
    2114,
    2117,
    2146,
    2153,
    2183,
    2188,
    2219,
    2220,
    2221,
    2222,
    2223,
    2224,
    2225,
    2264,
    2265
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 7,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “PALTAS / LOJA — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-11-310. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.