Office briefing

IBARRA / IMBABURA — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · IBARRA / IMBABURA / IMBABURA · municipal · MayorEC-M-10-30

Read the complete original research briefing

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography: IBARRA / IMBABURA / IMBABURA
Next election: 2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event: next-d7fdc595f9275118b90a92c6
Registry qualification: Qualified in source register

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

PARTIDO AVANZA37.5%
MUÉVETE IMBABURA23.6%
JUNTOS POR EL CAMBIO11.0%
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA10.7%
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK7.3%
PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA5.0%
MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRÁTICO1.7%
PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO1.5%
MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ0.9%
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO0.7%

Results for event-3137257472d18a9f10e69f02
Label / candidate	Party code	Votes	Share	Seats	Status
PARTIDO AVANZA · ALVARO CASTILLO	101ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	45,248	37.5%	1	Recorded
MUÉVETE IMBABURA · JUAN ARIAS	1077ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	28,511	23.6%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
JUNTOS POR EL CAMBIO · EDWIN TOAQUIZA	1374ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	13,230	11%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA · TANIA CHAMORRO	207ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	12,871	10.7%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · HILDA HERRERA	7ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	8,830	7.3%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · FREDY ESTEVEZ	117ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	6,009	5%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRÁTICO · EDWIN RUALES	124ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	2,110	1.7%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO · OTTO AYALA	32ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	1,808	1.5%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ · MARCELA PAREDES ORTIZ	157ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	1,103	0.9%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO · MARCO NICOLALDE MONTALVO	34ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	894	0.7%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

MOVIMIENTO ÚNETE, UNIÓN, ÉTICA, TRANSPARENCIA Y EQUIDAD33.3%
ALIANZA TODOS POR IBARRA32.9%
ALIANZA JUNTOS POR EL CAMBIO9.9%
MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL6.2%
MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL5.2%
MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES4.7%
UNION ECUATORIANA3.5%
MOVIMIENTO SOMOS LIBRES1.9%
MOVIMIENTO LIBERTAD ES PUEBLO, LEP1.3%
ALIANZA FUERZA DEL CAMBIO1.1%

Results for event-b2fc9b17cef39d7ddc50f354
Label / candidate	Party code	Votes	Share	Seats	Status
MOVIMIENTO ÚNETE, UNIÓN, ÉTICA, TRANSPARENCIA Y EQUIDAD · ANDREA SCACCO	181ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	39,171	33.3%	1	Recorded
ALIANZA TODOS POR IBARRA · ALVARO CASTILLO	507ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	38,745	32.9%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
ALIANZA JUNTOS POR EL CAMBIO · HILDA HERRERA TAPIA	782ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	11,621	9.9%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL · ANGEL CHECA LEON	148ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	7,352	6.2%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL · RUBEN AGAPITO CONGO MALDONADO	170ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	6,144	5.2%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES · FAUSTO YEPEZ	22ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	5,505	4.7%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
UNION ECUATORIANA · ALFONSO PASQUEL BELTRAN	51ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	4,085	3.5%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO SOMOS LIBRES · CARLOS POSSO	190ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	2,267	1.9%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO LIBERTAD ES PUEBLO, LEP · JOSE ELIAS MORENO	235ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	1,489	1.3%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
ALIANZA FUERZA DEL CAMBIO · OTTO IVAN AYALA TRUJILLO	509ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	1,324	1.1%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

PARTIDO AVANZA61.2%
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS30.7%
MOVIMIENTO CREO8.1%

Results for event-33bd01975944fc9eecb056ee
Label / candidate	Party code	Votes	Share	Seats	Status
PARTIDO AVANZA · CASTILLO AGUIRRE ALVARO RAMIRO	6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	69,009	61.2%	1	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS · MARTINEZ VASQUEZ JORGE FERNANDO	3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	34,653	30.7%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO · ANDRADE AGUIRRE DAVID PATRICIO	8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	9,092	8.1%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

42.590–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=13.87649858225413, oldest_gap=30.469872465721835, previous_gap=0.36192790328198754

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

46.33percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[1.49899679970816,37.51471636791749,7.320874856981777,0,0,0,53.66541197539258],[0,0,0,4.677026074101764,0,0,95.32297392589824],[0,61.203150220834736,0,8.063572024052363,0,30.7332777551129,0]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

95.32percentage points

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[1.49899679970816,37.51471636791749,7.320874856981777,0,0,0,53.66541197539258],[0,0,0,4.677026074101764,0,0,95.32297392589824],[0,61.203150220834736,0,8.063572024052363,0,30.7332777551129,0]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

70.83percentage points

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[1.49899679970816,37.51471636791749,7.320874856981777,0,0,0,53.66541197539258],[0,0,0,4.677026074101764,0,0,95.32297392589824],[0,61.203150220834736,0,8.063572024052363,0,30.7332777551129,0]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

As of

Electors

Notes

2026-08-11

178,634

Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.

{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 30,
  "cne_parish": null,
  "cne_province": 10,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electors_august": 178634,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-10-30",
  "name": "IBARRA / IMBABURA",
  "office": "Mayor",
  "precinct_rows": [
    1929,
    1930,
    1931,
    1932,
    1933,
    1934,
    1935,
    1936,
    1937,
    1938,
    1939,
    1940,
    1941,
    1942,
    1943,
    1944,
    1945,
    1948,
    1949,
    1950,
    1951,
    1954,
    1955,
    1956,
    1961,
    1968,
    1969,
    1970,
    1971,
    1972,
    1973,
    1974,
    1975,
    1976,
    1977,
    1978,
    1979,
    2022,
    2023,
    2024,
    2025,
    2026,
    2027,
    2028,
    2029,
    2030,
    2047,
    2048,
    2049,
    2050,
    2051,
    2052,
    2053
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 7,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

Sources

Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834 · rights unknown
Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971 · rights unknown
Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133 · rights unknown
Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/ · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2023.zip · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2023.dat · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019.dat · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2019.dat · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2014.sav · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2014.dat · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE 2027 precinct and electorate distribution, cutoff 11 August 2026 · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE resolution PLE-CNE-1-31-7-2026: ordinary election call for 29 November 2026 · rights unknown

Cite this record

Center for Digital Democracy. “IBARRA / IMBABURA — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-10-30. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.