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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

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Office briefing

GUACHAPALA / AZUAY — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · GUACHAPALA / AZUAY / AZUAY · municipal · MayorEC-M-1-990

Read the complete original research briefing

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
GUACHAPALA / AZUAY / AZUAY
Next election
2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event
next-4114f8ade9a747f12bc72c28
Registry qualification
Qualified in source register

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • JUNTOS PARA QUE GUACHAPALA GANE56.0%
  • UNIDOS POR GUACHAPALA32.0%
  • PARTIDO AVANZA7.1%
  • MOVIMIENTO NUEVA GENERACIÓN4.5%
  • AZUAY YA0.3%
Results for event-c29a2f8cf7acd0c6355d9237
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
JUNTOS PARA QUE GUACHAPALA GANE · PAULO CANTOS CAÑIZARES1401ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231,37656%1Recorded
UNIDOS POR GUACHAPALA · FRANCISCO LUZURIAGA1469ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202378532%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO AVANZA · ALBERTO GOMEZ JARA101ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231757.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO NUEVA GENERACIÓN · JORGE BOLIVAR ASTUDILLO215ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231114.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
AZUAY YA · EDGAR TOLEDO GUTIERREZ1115ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202380.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • ALIANZA AZUAY EL FUTURO QUE SOÑAMOS37.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO GUACHAPALA GANA37.1%
  • IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA14.0%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO6.1%
  • ALIANZA IGUALDAD-CREO5.5%
Results for event-e40c24796f2d49d365e5773f
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
ALIANZA AZUAY EL FUTURO QUE SOÑAMOS · JOSE FRANCISCO LUZURIAGA PAIDA748ecuador/Sed7b513864/201990537.3%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO GUACHAPALA GANA · PAULO CANTOS CAÑIZARES268ecuador/Sed7b513864/201990237.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · MARINA LOPEZ VILLALTA152ecuador/Sed7b513864/201934114%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO · JOSE GERONIMO TRELLES CEVALLOS1ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191476.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA IGUALDAD-CREO · BOSCO ABDON CASTILLO ORELLANA560ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191345.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS35.3%
  • PARTIDO AVANZA33.3%
  • ALIANZA "PARTICIPA CON IGUALDAD" LISTAS 62-8215.2%
  • MOVIMIENTO CREO11.5%
  • PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO4.6%
Results for event-61ec395ac529ba4f2cf41eb5
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS · DELGADO ORELLANA RAUL REMIGIO3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201475535.3%1Recorded
PARTIDO AVANZA · LUZURIAGA PAIDA JOSE FRANCISCO6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201471233.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA "PARTICIPA CON IGUALDAD" LISTAS 62-82 · TOLEDO CAMPOVERDE PEDRO ESTEBAN1008ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201432415.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO · JUCA ASTUDILLO NERIO VINICIO8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201424611.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO · CASTILLO ORELLANA BOSCO ABDON10ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014994.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

26.590–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=24.073319755600817, oldest_gap=2.013108614232209, previous_gap=0.12350761630300866

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

7.13percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,7.128309572301426,0,0,0,0,92.87169042769857],[6.051873198847262,0,0,0,0,0,93.94812680115275],[0,33.333333333333336,0,11.51685393258427,0,35.346441947565545,19.803370786516854]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

80.2percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,7.128309572301426,0,0,0,0,92.87169042769857],[6.051873198847262,0,0,0,0,0,93.94812680115275],[0,33.333333333333336,0,11.51685393258427,0,35.346441947565545,19.803370786516854]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

43.66percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,7.128309572301426,0,0,0,0,92.87169042769857],[6.051873198847262,0,0,0,0,0,93.94812680115275],[0,33.333333333333336,0,11.51685393258427,0,35.346441947565545,19.803370786516854]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

Register observations
As ofElectorsNotes
2026-08-113,020
Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.
{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 990,
  "cne_parish": null,
  "cne_province": 1,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electors_august": 3020,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-1-990",
  "name": "GUACHAPALA / AZUAY",
  "office": "Mayor",
  "precinct_rows": [
    183,
    184
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 7,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “GUACHAPALA / AZUAY — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-1-990. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.