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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

NABÓN / AZUAY — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · NABÓN / AZUAY / AZUAY · municipal · MayorEC-M-1-885

Read the complete original research briefing

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
NABÓN / AZUAY / AZUAY
Next election
2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event
next-37e969fa77d8e8cf26a6726b
Registry qualification
Qualified in source register

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • AZUAY YA46.5%
  • JUNTOS POR NABÓN40.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO AMIGO, ACCIÓN MOVILIZADORA INDEPENDIENTE GENERANDO OPORTUNIDADES10.7%
  • ¡ATREVETE! JUNTOS POR EL CAMBIO1.8%
  • AZUAY PRIMERO0.6%
Results for event-36ad592c0f6ebe28603effa0
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
AZUAY YA · PATRICIO MALDONADO JIMENEZ1115ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20234,35546.5%1Recorded
JUNTOS POR NABÓN · BORIS OCHOA1466ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20233,78440.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO AMIGO, ACCIÓN MOVILIZADORA INDEPENDIENTE GENERANDO OPORTUNIDADES · MARCO CABRERA OCHOA208ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231,00710.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
¡ATREVETE! JUNTOS POR EL CAMBIO · TAMARA LEON1430ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231701.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
AZUAY PRIMERO · NOEMI PATIÑO1063ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023540.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • ALIANZA AZUAY EL FUTURO QUE SOÑAMOS29.2%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK23.3%
  • ALIANZA UNIDAD POR EL CAMBIO17.7%
  • ALIANZA JUNTOS POR EL FUTURO8.4%
  • PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO8.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA7.8%
  • ALIANZA IGUALDAD-CREO5.3%
Results for event-61fe87999cb149f83a5606aa
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
ALIANZA AZUAY EL FUTURO QUE SOÑAMOS · PATRICIO MALDONADO748ecuador/Sed7b513864/20193,01729.2%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · LUIS NAULA12ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192,40923.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA UNIDAD POR EL CAMBIO · VINICIO SARAVIO JAYA QUEZADA677ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,82517.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA JUNTOS POR EL FUTURO · ROMULO QUEZADA556ecuador/Sed7b513864/20198708.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO · DIEGO IVAN CARRION8ecuador/Sed7b513864/20198528.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA · GALO RICARDO OCHOA CARRION13ecuador/Sed7b513864/20198037.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA IGUALDAD-CREO · ROSARIO OCHOA560ecuador/Sed7b513864/20195505.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • ALIANZA PACHACUTIK LISTA 18 - MPD LISTAS 1533.5%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS24.1%
  • PARTIDO AVANZA21.9%
  • ALIANZA "PARTICIPA CON IGUALDAD" LISTAS 62-8220.4%
Results for event-f92acf12cb50a9126cf80652
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
ALIANZA PACHACUTIK LISTA 18 - MPD LISTAS 15 · QUEZADA MINGA DALILA MAGALI1006ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20143,04933.5%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS · ERRAEZ ORDONEZ AMELIA CRISTINA3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20142,19824.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO AVANZA · AGUIRRE AGUIRRE GABRIEL OSWALDO6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141,99621.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA "PARTICIPA CON IGUALDAD" LISTAS 62-82 · QUEZADA LEON ROMULO ARIOSTO1008ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141,86020.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

68.210–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=6.09391675560299, oldest_gap=9.348566406679115, previous_gap=5.888049583575441

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,[0,0,23.329459616502035,0,0,7.776486538834011,68.89405384466396],[0,21.92683730638251,0,0,0,24.145885971657695,53.92727672195979]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

38.3percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,[0,0,23.329459616502035,0,0,7.776486538834011,68.89405384466396],[0,21.92683730638251,0,0,0,24.145885971657695,53.92727672195979]]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,[0,0,23.329459616502035,0,0,7.776486538834011,68.89405384466396],[0,21.92683730638251,0,0,0,24.145885971657695,53.92727672195979]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

Register observations
As ofElectorsNotes
2026-08-1113,099
Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.
{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 885,
  "cne_parish": null,
  "cne_province": 1,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electors_august": 13099,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-1-885",
  "name": "NABÓN / AZUAY",
  "office": "Mayor",
  "precinct_rows": [
    204,
    205,
    206,
    207,
    208,
    209,
    210,
    211,
    212,
    213
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 7,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “NABÓN / AZUAY — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-1-885. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.