Skip to observatory content

Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

OÑA / AZUAY — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · OÑA / AZUAY / AZUAY · municipal · MayorEC-M-1-780

Read the complete original research briefing

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
OÑA / AZUAY / AZUAY
Next election
2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event
next-06906c847425ba69d7d7a216
Registry qualification
Qualified in source register

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • AZUAY YA40.0%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO31.6%
  • MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA17.9%
  • UNIDOS VENCEREMOS5.0%
  • MOVIMIENTO NUEVA GENERACIÓN4.4%
  • AVANZAMOS PATRIÓTICAMENTE POR OÑA0.8%
  • AZUAY PRIMERO0.3%
Results for event-20d01f2e74f57965f1db6b47
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
AZUAY YA · EDDY PATRICIO ERRAEZ DONAULA1115ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231,07440%1Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO · JIMMY PATIÑO32ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202384931.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA · NELLY DELEG207ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202348217.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
UNIDOS VENCEREMOS · RAYMUNDO CALLE1445ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231355%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO NUEVA GENERACIÓN · FREDY YEROVI GALARZA215ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231174.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
AVANZAMOS PATRIÓTICAMENTE POR OÑA · EFREN RAMON1310ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023220.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
AZUAY PRIMERO · GABRIELA ANTONIETA GUICHAY1063ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202370.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • ALIANZA AZUAY EL FUTURO QUE SOÑAMOS42.1%
  • ALIANZA JUNTOS POR EL FUTURO41.2%
  • PARTIDO POLÍTICO AVANZA7.6%
  • ALIANZA UNIDAD POR EL CAMBIO6.2%
  • PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO2.8%
Results for event-03083dabb79e16d9041dacdb
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
ALIANZA AZUAY EL FUTURO QUE SOÑAMOS · IVAN ULLAURI CORONEL748ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,13242.1%1Recorded
ALIANZA JUNTOS POR EL FUTURO · EDDY ERRAEZ556ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,10741.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO POLÍTICO AVANZA · GALO OCHOA AGUIRRE25ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192057.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA UNIDAD POR EL CAMBIO · JAIME RAUL ARMIJOS CARPIO677ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191676.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO · JORGE QUEZADA QUEZADA3ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019762.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • PARTIDO AVANZA44.1%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS38.1%
  • ALIANZA "PARTICIPA CON IGUALDAD" LISTAS 62-829.5%
  • PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO6.3%
  • PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO"2.0%
Results for event-ce158fa296d22c714740930a
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO AVANZA · ULLAURI VALLEJO ROSA GERMANIA6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141,06444.1%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS · ERRAEZ DONAULA EDDY PATRICIO3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201491838.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA "PARTICIPA CON IGUALDAD" LISTAS 62-82 · ARMIJOS CARPIO JAIME RAUL1008ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20142289.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO · CORONEL LUIS ANTONIO2ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141526.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO" · QUEZADA QUEZADA JORGE JEOVANNY4ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014482%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

70.450–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=8.37676842889054, oldest_gap=6.058091286307054, previous_gap=0.9304056568663981

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[31.608339538346986,0,0,0,0,0,68.391660461653],null,[0,44.149377593360995,0,0,0,38.09128630705394,17.759336099585063]]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[31.608339538346986,0,0,0,0,0,68.391660461653],null,[0,44.149377593360995,0,0,0,38.09128630705394,17.759336099585063]]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[31.608339538346986,0,0,0,0,0,68.391660461653],null,[0,44.149377593360995,0,0,0,38.09128630705394,17.759336099585063]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

Register observations
As ofElectorsNotes
2026-08-113,486
Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.
{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 780,
  "cne_parish": null,
  "cne_province": 1,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electors_august": 3486,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-1-780",
  "name": "OÑA / AZUAY",
  "office": "Mayor",
  "precinct_rows": [
    214,
    215,
    216
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 7,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “OÑA / AZUAY — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-1-780. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.