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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

CAMILO PONCE ENRÍQUEZ / AZUAY — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · CAMILO PONCE ENRÍQUEZ / AZUAY / AZUAY · municipal · MayorEC-M-1-556

Read the complete original research briefing

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
CAMILO PONCE ENRÍQUEZ / AZUAY / AZUAY
Next election
2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event
next-36f58b2ebb15b42222833878
Registry qualification
Qualified in source register

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • CAMBIO HISTÓRICO PONCEÑO59.1%
  • AZUAY PRIMERO40.9%
Results for event-e632843403da092102503f0a
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
CAMBIO HISTÓRICO PONCEÑO · JOSE SANCHEZ1287ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20238,29259.1%1Recorded
AZUAY PRIMERO · BALDOR BERMEO1063ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20235,73140.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • ALIANZA JUNTOS POR EL FUTURO31.7%
  • ALIANZA NUEVO CAMILO PONCE ENRIQUEZ28.7%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PONCEÑA PROGRESISTA22.7%
  • CENTRO DEMOCRATICO10.5%
  • MOVIMIENTO INCLUYENTE NUEVA ALTERNATIVA, MINA4.3%
  • ALIANZA IGUALDAD-CREO1.2%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO1.0%
Results for event-343d9c5328001c355350c963
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
ALIANZA JUNTOS POR EL FUTURO · BALDOR BERMEO556ecuador/Sed7b513864/20193,93331.7%1Recorded
ALIANZA NUEVO CAMILO PONCE ENRIQUEZ · JOSE SANCHEZ545ecuador/Sed7b513864/20193,56228.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PONCEÑA PROGRESISTA · MANUEL ESPINOZA BARZALLO239ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192,82422.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
CENTRO DEMOCRATICO · RUBEN ERRAEZ CAPELO145ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,29910.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO INCLUYENTE NUEVA ALTERNATIVA, MINA · PATRICIO ROLANDO SANCHEZ NAREA209ecuador/Sed7b513864/20195284.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA IGUALDAD-CREO · GLENDA BARZALLO TORRES560ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191461.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO · EDUARDO MORALES1ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191261%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • ALIANZA "PARTICIPA CON IGUALDAD" LISTAS 62-8258.7%
  • PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO15.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS11.6%
  • PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO10.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO CREO2.6%
  • PARTIDO AVANZA1.5%
Results for event-f807a226a5be7606e6795894
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
ALIANZA "PARTICIPA CON IGUALDAD" LISTAS 62-82 · ESPINOZA BARZALLO MANUEL ELIAS1008ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20145,33158.7%1Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO · ERRAEZ CAPELO RUBEN IGNACIO10ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141,38915.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS · BERMEO CABRERA ELIAS BALDOR3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141,05111.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO · SANCHEZ NAREA PATRICIO ROLANDO2ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201493710.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO · VILLACIS MUÑOZ PATRICIA ALEXANDRA8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20142352.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO AVANZA · BARZALLO TORRES GLENDA LILI6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141371.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

19.020–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=18.262853882906654, oldest_gap=43.414096916299556, previous_gap=2.987598647125143

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,[1.0146561443066517,0,0,0,0,0,98.98534385569334],[0,1.5088105726872247,0,2.5881057268722465,0,11.57488986784141,84.32819383259911]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

15.67percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,[1.0146561443066517,0,0,0,0,0,98.98534385569334],[0,1.5088105726872247,0,2.5881057268722465,0,11.57488986784141,84.32819383259911]]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,[1.0146561443066517,0,0,0,0,0,98.98534385569334],[0,1.5088105726872247,0,2.5881057268722465,0,11.57488986784141,84.32819383259911]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

Register observations
As ofElectorsNotes
2026-08-1118,226
Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.
{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 556,
  "cne_parish": null,
  "cne_province": 1,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electors_august": 18226,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-1-556",
  "name": "CAMILO PONCE ENRÍQUEZ / AZUAY",
  "office": "Mayor",
  "precinct_rows": [
    9,
    10,
    11,
    12,
    13,
    14,
    15,
    16,
    17,
    18
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 7,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “CAMILO PONCE ENRÍQUEZ / AZUAY — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-1-556. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.